ADVERTISEMENT

Decent Season and A Look Ahead

I don't think there's a long recap to be had on the current season. To break it down, Illinois played 5 non-con games against quality competition, beating the two lesser of those 5 teams (Ark and Mizzou, both neutral), but losing to the three teams that ended as Top Two seeds (Bama, TN, and the Duke slaughter).

The team was a bit up and down in the B1G, finishing 12-8. A good but not great record. Illinois did show it could compete with anyone in any building, its two most impressive games were slaughtering solid Oregon and Michigan teams on the road. Arguably outplayed MSU on the road despite foul trouble. Splitting the two road OT games the team lost - NW and Nebby - would have pushed this upward a bit. BTT was also something of a neutral, ending Fran's career but losing badly to Maryland (IMHO, probably the best team in the league and the only high level FF contender tho MSU is more likely to have a shot at going due to the draw).

The NCAA tournament involved a very good win over a solid Xavier squad that came in hot and an underwhelming loss to a much more experienced Kentucky.

My long held standard for a respectable year at IL is Top 6 seed and R32 loss. The minimum was achieved, but nothing more. Kind of a borderline Top 25 team. Not bad, not special.

Moving onto to CBB generally, I didn't realize until the last 24 hours how much the 5th year senior situation dominated this CBB season. Other than Duke, the best teams don't have high-level NBA prospects, and I think you have to attribute it to having two senior classes and the free transfers that pushed a bunch of solid, older players up from lesser teams and programs to a smaller number of teams at the top of CBB this year.

That said, I wouldn't want to be in the portal looking for a whole team this year. Far less highly productive guys to get. Whether it was luck or not, Illinois going full rebuild in 2024 was much better than having doing it in 2025. Kentucky, Louisville, Kansas, Auburn, Bama, and Tennessee among plenty of others are going to need entirely new rosters in the offseason, they are all in the same boat we were after 2023. Gonzaga will as well, and it's an open question how they will compete with what we are about to see (Few is awesome, of course, but they really are going to have to find the right guys as they won't be able to buy them).

For Illinois' purposes, that means that retaining the current roster - which seems likely - is huge. I've been on the fence about White and Hummer, but considering where things are right now, getting them back is actually quite helpful, especially if both are in your 6-8 range for minutes and productivity (White may be best as a 5th option starter because he often slays when other teams can't focus on him). Ilinois needs a lead guard who can make shots, if the Blackwell kid at Wisky really is an option, he's an awesome one, and another wing athlete assuming Riley leaves (if he stays, I could see the argument that having Riley/Sarr/White as your wings is more than enough).

Right now Illinois is looking like it should, crossing fingers, have Tomi - Boz - Rez - White - Hummer back. That's 5 of your Top 8. Sarr would also slot into the Top 8, and Davis can play some meaningful minutes off the bunch. You'd think both Hummer and Davis will adjust to the speed of the game more next year (yes, I know both are limited athletically, but looking at a guy like Luke Goode who kept improving as he learned to compensate for his limitations is instructive). So assuming you need two guys, hopefully there is money to spend on a high-level lead guard and whatever is needed on the wing.

College basketball is going to change a lot from 2025 to 2026. You'll never seen more seniors among the ten or so best teams than you will in 2025. Frosh will matter more next year, and due to the coin about to be spent by a host of teams, I highly doubt the squads that have to fill out a bunch of slots will be able to get the level of player they want at all positions. I haven't looked at every team, but squads like Illinois, Baylor, and UConn should all be serious contenders for Top 2-3 seeds in a year.

I shed no tears for other Big Ten teams

I want the other Big Ten teams to do well, but not as well as Illinois. So as soon as we lose in the NCAA Tournament I want them all eliminated as soon as possible. I'm glad to see Michigan State go down today and everyone kept out of the Final Four.

I see NCAA Basketball trending more towards NCAA Football in the NIL/transfer era. Top talent will consolidate at a few schools and they will become perennial title contenders. So I want Illinois at the top of the Big Ten. We are already looking to feast on the carcass of the Iowa program in the offseason.

Izzo is near the end so Michigan State doesn't scare me.

Wisconsin is a consistent Sweet 16 threat but never really Final Four good. Someone has to win some games in this league.

Purdue has been a machine but the NIL isn't there so I think we will see them take a step back.

Michigan is always sort of okay but I think Juwan Howard was more of a threat with recruiting. May isn't necessarily pulling the upper echelon guys.

Maryland just imploded. It's beautiful to watch. Maybe we can get that monkey off our back.

Ohio State should be good but just isn't.

Indiana would be a threat if they ever get their act together. Thankfully they are a bit dysfunctional.

Oregon always seems to do well in March, so they can't be ignored. UCLA is a big name every year. Musselman will be a pest at USC. I still have a tough time thinking of them as Big Ten teams.

For as much as we stress out about our team and have a somewhat toxic internet presence, Illinois is still probably the best-positioned school to run this conference for the next decade. So if anyone is winning a title in that time, it better be us.

We love no other.

Roster construction part deux + some other nuggets and thoughts

I've had some interesting conversations over the last few days with people in the business, agents, coaches, etc. (I believe some of it - LOL). I'll share what I've learned...

* There are some secondary issues (its multi-layered), but its mostly about the money. Some players don't like what they've heard in exit interviews.

* There is roughly $8m to work with, and I think they would have a hard time getting more out of donors right now. Underwood, the assistants, and general manager Neal Ganta worked out a tentative plan how to spend it. That plan is obviously fluid based on the portal.

* The agitators behind the scenes during portal season (and even during the season) are agents. Their influence has grown exponentially. They are telling players they can get them a big bag and get them to the NBA if only they choose the right school. Every kid thinks they are a pro. Many of the agents have dubious relationships with college basketball coaches. That has worked both in favor of and against Illinois. It's helped them a lot with international players, not as much with transfers.

* It was agents and others connected to the family who told Morez Johnson he should go somewhere where they would let him shoot 3's and develop for the league. There was previously an NIL package agree to, but higher numbers started coming in from other schools. A lot of negative recruiting went into it.

* There's a growing narrative on social media that the roles that Tyler Underwood and Zach Hamer have on the staff has caused friction. It's not much of an issue with the current coaching staff. Geoff Alexander is an Underwood loyalist and Orlando Antigua is very well compensated. It's an issue with ex-coaches, though, an it spilled over to a few of the players. I think that is one of the downsides of assistants having "their guys" in recruiting and its one of the reasons Underwood is more hands on now in recruiting.

* There will likely be a couple more additions to the portal. Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn is likely to announce soon. I think Ty Rodgers is leaning that way too, but he may have second thoughts based on an opportunity to play with Tre White moving on. Illinois would like him back. DGL has had a foot out the door since around mid-season. That's one reason his minutes shrank. I can't think of anything that would bring him back, but portal season is unpredictable so...

* I'm told that Kansas very much wanted to close on Josh Dix before he left Lawrence. That didn't happen, and its a potential good sign for Illinois. He is taking his official visit to Illinois over the next couple of days. His agent has claimed that Kansas offered $2m. I don't necessarily believe that. But, Illinois can match it and offer a bigger role. Iowa has been assumed to be out, but they are still trying.

* Illinois very much wants to get into the mix for Xavier transfer Ryan Conwell. Underwood loves him. Conwell is not an alternative to Dix, but a guy they would take in addition. But, he's also another guy who will command around $2m. They really want a multi-skilled guard as well. It may be hard to get a high level guard who would want to back up Boswell.

* Illinois has been more stealthy on big men they are targeting in the portal, but I've heard they are working on at least two visits with one kid possibly getting close to making a decision.

* There's a big NIL package in place to bring back Tomislav Ivisic and both sides have tentatively agreed to it. Don't be overly alarmed if Ivisic declares for the NBA Draft. Getting feedback a la Ayo Dosunmu is the smart move.

* There's very little NIL money for Jake Davis, so he has a decision to make. I would guess he comes back, but its up in the air. He likes it at Illinois.

* I've never gotten a vibe that Ben Humrichous wants to come back. He seems done with college basketball. Again, never say never. He will have a waiver to return if he wants to.

* It wasn't announced obviously, but I'm told Tre White was suspended for a couple of games. Things may have started going downhill at that point, but the exit interview was probably the end.

* Recruiting in Chicago-land is a dead end street for Illinois right now. Kids like Davion Thompson and Jaxson Davis are probably out of reach. Maybe an outside shot at Devin Cleveland. Meanstreets, Mac Irvin Fire, Illinois Wolves. Bridges burned. It's obviously not nearly as a big of deal as it was maybe 10-15 years ago.

* I would still call Illinois the favorite for Italian wing Dame Sarr. His recent play changed things, though. He's getting a lot of attention including Duke and his price tag went up.

Miller, Epps, Morez

Similar situations, outside of the $ involved. In HS all of these guys were recruited to be “the man”. Miller was the star in his class, and was sold on being a go to guy. Then they landed Curbelo, and he was a corner 3 and D guy. A role he had never played. And he better hit every shot when he touches he the ball, or he’s grabbing some bench.

Epps was sold on being the guy in his class. He was going to have the ball in his hands. Then they landed Clark, and Epps was put off the ball. A role he hadn’t played much.

Morez was the big man in this class. He committed a few years ago, and was sold on Illinois developing him as an all around big man. Then less than a year ago, they landed Ivisic, and he became that guy. They were going to run a lot of the offense through him, and Morez needed to be happy dunking, rebounding, and defending. Miss outside of 8 feet, and you are grabbing some bench.

It’s easy to see why these guys get frustrated with their roles. It would be nice to keep some of them around and them. Rodgers, DGL, the list continues.

They aren’t all bad players…far from it.

Illinois 2025-26 roster construction thread

I will pin this thread and keep it updated.

As of today, there is no substantial change to what I have already posted. Post season player meetings will kick off this week, so the picture should start to become more clear.

It might be a some time before we know for sure on guys who are looking to declare for the NBA Draft. The deadline to declare as an early entry player is April 26 and the withdrawal deadline in June 15.

The NBA Draft Combine is set for May 11-18 in Chicago.

The NCAA Transfer Portal window is open as of today (Monday, 3/24) and runs through April 22.

This is premium content. Please subscribe to view.

Should our expectations change for the basketball program?

If you judge Illinois basketball by its long-term history, a 6-seed and an NCAA Tournament win are an average season for us.

If you compare the Underwood era to the Groce era or the post-Dee/Augie Weber years it feels like we're in the golden age of Illinois basketball again.

So we're generally in a good place. We aren't quite matching peak Henson or the early 2000's with the Self-built teams, but we are among the top programs in the Big Ten and we're generally spending time in the Top 25 every year. We're not outplaying our NCAA Tournament seeds but Illinois basketball never does.

Despite all of that, I can't shake a feeling of dissatisfaction. The reason is because the floor and the ceiling for Illinois basketball have been raised dramatically over the last few years.

Our biggest problem historically has been that we couldn't sustain great recruiting. Slush Fund, Bruce Pearl, and Self leaving for Kansas were all major setbacks. The story was that other schools could "buy" players and we couldn't do it without being caught. So we were never more than a second-tier or third-tier basketball program. Maybe something like 17th-25th overall in the sport.

I think right now that Illinois has the resources to be a top-tier or second-tier basketball program. Maybe we're not one of the absolute blue bloods, but we're only a small notch below that. I'd put us around 9th-16th overall in the sport. The SEC and the Big Ten are the two dominant leagues in college athletics. I don't have the exact figures for coaching salary, NIL, or overall fan support but I think just looking at the amount of orange in the stands at any neutral site that we're competitive with the very top programs in the country. We can consistently land multiple guys in the 25-50 ratings because of NIL now whereas before we were just hoping to get multiple guys in the top 100. The talent is there.

I think Brad Underwood has done an admirable job of navigating the changing landscape of college basketball. His teams are consistently competitive and I'm not making this thread to complain about any recent results. (Even if I were, there are other threads for that.) I do think the bar needs to rise a bit going forward. What does that look like?

  • More scrutiny on assistant coaches. If they aren't elite at x's-and-o's or recruiting, then let's upgrade. We're don't need to be a friends-and-family operation.
  • If we've identified key guys on the roster that we want to return, we shouldn't be getting outbid by other programs. We should be a destination, not a stepping-stone. It's fine to try and upgrade at some positions over existing guys but we shouldn't have to do involuntary large-scale roster overhauls.
  • We have reloading years, not rebuilding years. We should be able to field a team that is in the Top 25 at some point every season. Some years may be peak years where you are most competitive, but the floor is an NCAA Tournament bid every year.
  • We need to reclaim the home court advantage. We have a great neutral-court advantage because our fans travel well, but our home court performances have been weak. Our home court advantage factor on KenPom is 118th in the country, which is not impressive.
  • We need to start winning more NCAA Tournament games. Probably should be averaging 2 NCAA Tournament wins per year, so 10 NCAA wins over the next 5 years compared to 6 NCAA wins over the last 5 years.
  • Keep winning trophies and hanging banners. We've probably been at the top of the Big Ten over the last 5-6 years (neck-and-neck with Purdue.) This is excellent and I think we can sustain it even with a larger Big Ten.
I think Brad Underwood can deliver on all of this going forward and he's done great work building us back to this level. At some point, he's going to be 70 years old and I think these are also realistic expectations for the next coach given where we are now as a program.

Illinois basketball is in a much more favorable place now than where we've been historically for my adult life. We can finally harness the resources of our awesome fanbase and I think it's ok for fans to raise their expectations going forward.
ADVERTISEMENT

Filter

ADVERTISEMENT