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Decent Season and A Look Ahead

I don't think there's a long recap to be had on the current season. To break it down, Illinois played 5 non-con games against quality competition, beating the two lesser of those 5 teams (Ark and Mizzou, both neutral), but losing to the three teams that ended as Top Two seeds (Bama, TN, and the Duke slaughter).

The team was a bit up and down in the B1G, finishing 12-8. A good but not great record. Illinois did show it could compete with anyone in any building, its two most impressive games were slaughtering solid Oregon and Michigan teams on the road. Arguably outplayed MSU on the road despite foul trouble. Splitting the two road OT games the team lost - NW and Nebby - would have pushed this upward a bit. BTT was also something of a neutral, ending Fran's career but losing badly to Maryland (IMHO, probably the best team in the league and the only high level FF contender tho MSU is more likely to have a shot at going due to the draw).

The NCAA tournament involved a very good win over a solid Xavier squad that came in hot and an underwhelming loss to a much more experienced Kentucky.

My long held standard for a respectable year at IL is Top 6 seed and R32 loss. The minimum was achieved, but nothing more. Kind of a borderline Top 25 team. Not bad, not special.

Moving onto to CBB generally, I didn't realize until the last 24 hours how much the 5th year senior situation dominated this CBB season. Other than Duke, the best teams don't have high-level NBA prospects, and I think you have to attribute it to having two senior classes and the free transfers that pushed a bunch of solid, older players up from lesser teams and programs to a smaller number of teams at the top of CBB this year.

That said, I wouldn't want to be in the portal looking for a whole team this year. Far less highly productive guys to get. Whether it was luck or not, Illinois going full rebuild in 2024 was much better than having doing it in 2025. Kentucky, Louisville, Kansas, Auburn, Bama, and Tennessee among plenty of others are going to need entirely new rosters in the offseason, they are all in the same boat we were after 2023. Gonzaga will as well, and it's an open question how they will compete with what we are about to see (Few is awesome, of course, but they really are going to have to find the right guys as they won't be able to buy them).

For Illinois' purposes, that means that retaining the current roster - which seems likely - is huge. I've been on the fence about White and Hummer, but considering where things are right now, getting them back is actually quite helpful, especially if both are in your 6-8 range for minutes and productivity (White may be best as a 5th option starter because he often slays when other teams can't focus on him). Ilinois needs a lead guard who can make shots, if the Blackwell kid at Wisky really is an option, he's an awesome one, and another wing athlete assuming Riley leaves (if he stays, I could see the argument that having Riley/Sarr/White as your wings is more than enough).

Right now Illinois is looking like it should, crossing fingers, have Tomi - Boz - Rez - White - Hummer back. That's 5 of your Top 8. Sarr would also slot into the Top 8, and Davis can play some meaningful minutes off the bunch. You'd think both Hummer and Davis will adjust to the speed of the game more next year (yes, I know both are limited athletically, but looking at a guy like Luke Goode who kept improving as he learned to compensate for his limitations is instructive). So assuming you need two guys, hopefully there is money to spend on a high-level lead guard and whatever is needed on the wing.

College basketball is going to change a lot from 2025 to 2026. You'll never seen more seniors among the ten or so best teams than you will in 2025. Frosh will matter more next year, and due to the coin about to be spent by a host of teams, I highly doubt the squads that have to fill out a bunch of slots will be able to get the level of player they want at all positions. I haven't looked at every team, but squads like Illinois, Baylor, and UConn should all be serious contenders for Top 2-3 seeds in a year.

I shed no tears for other Big Ten teams

I want the other Big Ten teams to do well, but not as well as Illinois. So as soon as we lose in the NCAA Tournament I want them all eliminated as soon as possible. I'm glad to see Michigan State go down today and everyone kept out of the Final Four.

I see NCAA Basketball trending more towards NCAA Football in the NIL/transfer era. Top talent will consolidate at a few schools and they will become perennial title contenders. So I want Illinois at the top of the Big Ten. We are already looking to feast on the carcass of the Iowa program in the offseason.

Izzo is near the end so Michigan State doesn't scare me.

Wisconsin is a consistent Sweet 16 threat but never really Final Four good. Someone has to win some games in this league.

Purdue has been a machine but the NIL isn't there so I think we will see them take a step back.

Michigan is always sort of okay but I think Juwan Howard was more of a threat with recruiting. May isn't necessarily pulling the upper echelon guys.

Maryland just imploded. It's beautiful to watch. Maybe we can get that monkey off our back.

Ohio State should be good but just isn't.

Indiana would be a threat if they ever get their act together. Thankfully they are a bit dysfunctional.

Oregon always seems to do well in March, so they can't be ignored. UCLA is a big name every year. Musselman will be a pest at USC. I still have a tough time thinking of them as Big Ten teams.

For as much as we stress out about our team and have a somewhat toxic internet presence, Illinois is still probably the best-positioned school to run this conference for the next decade. So if anyone is winning a title in that time, it better be us.

We love no other.
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