Thought I'd sketch out some rough outlines of what our NCAA seeding might look like based on future W-L record. We have 18 wins total and 9 Big Ten wins right now. I feel confident that we will not be playing on Wednesday in the BTT. I'm also assuming that the Sunday BTT game is irrelevant for seeding purposes, should we make it that far. This is pure speculation on my part so if you think I'm full of it then I apologize. Bear in mind that a regular season win is better than a BTT win because you remove a loss from your total with a regular season win but each BTT win just delays it one day. I'm also going to assume that we need to go 4-0 to get a double-bye in the BTT.
I think to lock up a bid, we need either one more regular season win (19-13 or better) or two BTT wins (20-14 or better.)
19-13/20-14 = 11-seed play-in
0-4 reg season + 0-1 or 1-1 BTT = 18-14/19-14 = NIT
0-4 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 20-14 = 11-seed play-in
0-4 reg season + 3-1/4-0 BTT = 21-14/22-13 = 9 seed
1-3 reg season + 0-1 BTT = 19-13 = 11 seed play-in
1-3 reg season + 1-1 BTT = 20-13 = 10 seed
1-3 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 21-13 = 9 seed
1-3 reg season + 3-1/4-0 BTT = 22-13/23-12 = 7 seed
2-2 reg season + 0-1 BTT = 20-12 = 8-seed
2-2 reg season + 1-1 BTT = 21-12 = 7-seed
2-2 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 22-12 = 6-seed
2-2 reg season + 3-1/4-0 BTT = 23-12/24-11 = 4 seed
3-1 reg season + 0-1 BTT = 21-11 = 6-seed
3-1 reg season + 1-1 BTT = 22-11 = 5-seed
3-1 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 23-11 = 4-seed
3-1 reg season + 3-1/4-0 BTT = 24-11/25-10 = 3 seed
4-0 reg season + 0-1 BTT = 22-10 = 5-seed
4-0 reg season + 1-1 BTT = 23-10 = 4-seed
4-0 reg season + 2-1/3-0 BTT = 24-10/25-9 = 3 seed
(the 3,4,5 seeds in this scenario would be higher on the S-curve than the 3-1 ones, but not quite at the higher seed line)
I think our ceiling right now is around the #9 overall seed if we win out until Sunday in the BTT. If I had to predict where we end up, I'd guess 3-1 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 23-11 = 4-seed (probably the #16 overall on the S-curve.) Path to the Sweet 16 is a cakewalk through the 13/12 seeds (finally a good draw!) and then it's a battle royale vs. Houston or Alabama.