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A few recruiting notes...

As of right now, Illinois will probably only take one more high school kid in the 2024 class. It will be a guard / stretch forward type.

Certa and Swartz are the two to watch right now, but that list will grow over the summer.

Look for Illinois to have a couple of open rides for the 2023-24 season. They will likely look for a big wing / shooter from the Portal.

Another primary ball handler and / or big man is also a possibility, depending on how things shake out after this season. They like Zach Perrin at the 4/5. Not sure about Moretti yet.

2025 wing Colt Langdon will visit Saturday for the Rutgers game. Illinois is an early frontrunner for him. We'll try to talk to him at halftime.

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It's really simple -- don't settle for 3's

I was looking at our KenPom page and a couple stats leap off the page. Nobody on our team shoots below 50% from 2, and nobody on our team shoots better than 37.1% from 3. Matthew Mayer and Sencire Harris are the only players on the team who score more efficiently from 3 than from 2.

The second noteworthy item is that we are 54th in the country in 3PA/FGA. So we are shooting a lot of 3's even though we are terrible at it. From my observations, Epps and Hawkins should not shoot 3's off the dribble (and Hawkins should not go beyond NBA range.) Mayer can get hot from 3 but if he's not on a heater then he should also be a spot-up 3-point shooter. RJ's shot is just broken right now. Shannon can make them in rhythm from certain spots. Everybody loves taking heat-check 3's but only Mayer ever gets hot enough to justify it.

Everyone on this team thinks they are Steph Curry. They aren't.

I did look back and the 2013 team was similarly challenged from 3. They shot 31.8% to our 31.5% this year. They were 22nd in 3PA/FGA. That team was the Groce team that won Maui, beat #1 Indiana, and lost to #2 seed Miami as a #7 seed. They were #46 in offense to this year's #50 in offense. The difference between the teams is that 2013 team was not good at shooting 2's (175th.) This team is very good at it (16th.) That 2013 team was comparable in offensive efficiency because they almost never turned it over. Since they couldn't score from anywhere (they were also terrible with assists because they had no real PG) it made sense to just go 1-on-1 (they shot FTs well) and jack up 3's because it was better than turning it over.

This year's team has no excuse not to shoot more 2's. They turn it over a ton anyway (so it's not like 2013 where the 3 was a safer shot than working longer for a 2.) They are also 93rd fastest in offensive possession length, which means they are rarely running up against the shot clock where you have to settle for a 3 because that's all you have time for. This is also a very good offensive rebounding team (33.7%) so we thrive around the rim.

Sometimes the 3-pointer is the correct shot and I'm not saying to never take them. Catch-and-shoot 3's generated by the flow of the offense are higher percentage looks and work well for us. The problem is that we settle for 3's and have fallen in love with the 3-point shot. It's a form of selfishness and immaturity because guys want to showcase their shooting for the NBA.

If this team stopped settling for 3's and focused the offense on trying to get the ball into the paint then they would become more efficient. Even more simply, the lesson is to play to your strengths and do the things you are good at. After 24 games, we know what that is for this team. All the fans know this. Half this board is screaming about it every game thread. I just hope the players let it sink in and figure it out.

Looking around the Big Ten

Purdue obviously the best, although they are very Edey-dependent.

Indiana looking really good too. TJD is dominating and their 5* freshman is huge for them. I’d probably put them 2nd overall.

Illinois is probably #3 in the conference. Should be in the Top 25.

Next tier is Rutgers/Maryland. Not quite Top 25 (Rutgers losing Mag hurts them, not quite sure how much) but safely in the tournament. Iowa is in that conversation but probably the #6.

Michigan State should make the NCAAs as the 7th Big Ten team but some work to do. Northwestern hanging around but I’ll put them a clear #8 and barely on the good side of the bubble. They are a bit of a mirage record-wise.

It gets ugly after that. Michigan might be .500 overall on Selection Sunday and they are probably 9th. NCAAs not likely at all for them. Penn State is also 14-11 and hopefully we bury them Tuesday. Wisconsin just torched their NCAA hopes losing in OT at Nebraska.

Ohio State is so good at losing close games that they will likely finish below Nebraska in the standings. Nebraska is probably happy with 12th place. Nuff said.

Minnesota is on par with low major teams like UMKC. They are so bad that we can’t lock up a NCAA bid before we play them because a theoretical loss would just be too damaging.

Really bad year for Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. In the age of transfers and NILs, missing the NCAAs can easily make you a second-tier Big Ten program for a while. I shed no tears for them.
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Colonnades Club

Does anyone on the board sit in the Colonnades Club?

We’ve been in section 231 the last few years (furthest NW corner of the stadium) and love it up there. However, games are becoming more difficult to attend with kids’ weekend schedules (daughter -> freshman / son -> 6th grade). I can always get a fraternity brother to go and take one but getting someone to take 3-4 has been difficult.

I do want to support the program monetarily so was thinking of “upgrading” seats but decreasing the quantity.

For those sit there how do you like it?

At Penn State on V-Day

What do we expect for a crowd on Valentine’s Day at Penn State?

7 PM Eastern that’s got to be a game that a lot of their fans are going to skip, especially for a team that is 14-11.

Probably a good time for our team to be on the road, too. PSU players may be thinking more about their girlfriends than focusing on beating Illinois.

I remember thinking in the off-season that this would be advantageous schedule-wise. It’s essentially a 50-50 game in KenPom so we’ll see.

They absolutely wrecked us in Champaign but we were beyond flat and now we will be looking for revenge. Fascinating matchup. Not sure if I’ll be watching live but it will be a real yardstick for this team.

NCAA TOURNAMENT MYOPIA

Reading posts over the years, and especially lately, I have come to the conclusion that way too many fans can't appreciate the talent, coaching and wonderful seasons the Illini have had, as they are blinded by the NCAA Tournament failures. Fine and some excellent coaches, Henson, Underwood, Self are under appreciated or denigrated because of losses in the first or second round. Great teams that the Illini have had are looked at disappointingly because of Tournament failure.
Appreciate the great talent and coaching and the approximate 20 games we enjoyed during long seasons of success. Instead many are completely consumed by the largely commercial and media hype given a Tournament. Don't let an early out from a commercial tournament blind us to the enjoyment we had following the team all season long.
I didn't think less of the Illini that tied as the BIG10 champs because of their loss to Loyola, as disappointing as that was. I remember all of the great games watching Ayo, Kofi and team win with hard nosed play and determination against teams with much greater talent and athleticism. I don't think less of the Illini reaching the Championship last year, because they lost in the second round. A good run in the tournament is gravy, if it happens. It is the long season that determines the quality of the team, the coach and the enjoyment from following them. Rant over.
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