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Seeding scenarios

Thought I'd sketch out some rough outlines of what our NCAA seeding might look like based on future W-L record. We have 18 wins total and 9 Big Ten wins right now. I feel confident that we will not be playing on Wednesday in the BTT. I'm also assuming that the Sunday BTT game is irrelevant for seeding purposes, should we make it that far. This is pure speculation on my part so if you think I'm full of it then I apologize. Bear in mind that a regular season win is better than a BTT win because you remove a loss from your total with a regular season win but each BTT win just delays it one day. I'm also going to assume that we need to go 4-0 to get a double-bye in the BTT.

I think to lock up a bid, we need either one more regular season win (19-13 or better) or two BTT wins (20-14 or better.)
19-13/20-14 = 11-seed play-in

0-4 reg season + 0-1 or 1-1 BTT = 18-14/19-14 = NIT
0-4 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 20-14 = 11-seed play-in
0-4 reg season + 3-1/4-0 BTT = 21-14/22-13 = 9 seed

1-3 reg season + 0-1 BTT = 19-13 = 11 seed play-in
1-3 reg season + 1-1 BTT = 20-13 = 10 seed
1-3 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 21-13 = 9 seed
1-3 reg season + 3-1/4-0 BTT = 22-13/23-12 = 7 seed


2-2 reg season + 0-1 BTT = 20-12 = 8-seed
2-2 reg season + 1-1 BTT = 21-12 = 7-seed
2-2 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 22-12 = 6-seed
2-2 reg season + 3-1/4-0 BTT = 23-12/24-11 = 4 seed

3-1 reg season + 0-1 BTT = 21-11 = 6-seed
3-1 reg season + 1-1 BTT = 22-11 = 5-seed
3-1 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 23-11 = 4-seed
3-1 reg season + 3-1/4-0 BTT = 24-11/25-10 = 3 seed

4-0 reg season + 0-1 BTT = 22-10 = 5-seed
4-0 reg season + 1-1 BTT = 23-10 = 4-seed
4-0 reg season + 2-1/3-0 BTT = 24-10/25-9 = 3 seed
(the 3,4,5 seeds in this scenario would be higher on the S-curve than the 3-1 ones, but not quite at the higher seed line)


I think our ceiling right now is around the #9 overall seed if we win out until Sunday in the BTT. If I had to predict where we end up, I'd guess 3-1 reg season + 2-1 BTT = 23-11 = 4-seed (probably the #16 overall on the S-curve.) Path to the Sweet 16 is a cakewalk through the 13/12 seeds (finally a good draw!) and then it's a battle royale vs. Houston or Alabama.

A little optimism to start a critical week

Thought I'd throw out some positive notes just to get myself in a better mood about the team:

  • We shot 41 2's and 20 3's against Indiana. That's a good ratio for this team and I think we can follow that blueprint in the future and still run our offense.
  • Luke Goode has a 146.4 ORtg so far this season. So he's been effective even with the late start to his season.
  • Matthew Mayer is shooting 37.2% from 3 and Luke Goode (small sample size so far) is shooting 40%. I think those guys can sustain that and help us space the floor a bit even if other guys are struggling and need to get the yellow/red light from deep.
  • Coleman Hawkins is 20-28 from 2 in his last 7 games. His 2PA (28) have exceeded his 3PA (26) over that stretch. (Him shooting 4-26 from 3 is not good news so let's ignore that.) He also has 23 FTA in that span. Maybe he's starting to figure out that he is 6'10" and most effective close to the basket. Also the dunks have been really sweet.
  • Dain Dainja is 17-27 (63%) from the free throw line in his last 11 games. He's starting to look more comfortable there compared to the start of the season.
  • Ty Rodgers has an ORtg of 113.1 in conference play. He's starting to emerge.
  • In our last 7 games, Illinois has gone 41-166 from 3 (24.7%). The worst team in the country this year shoots 26.4% from 3. I looked through KenPom all the way back to the '01-'02 season and no team shot it worse than 24.8% for an entire season. So it's likely that this is just a temporary slump and we'll see some positive regression and we're not actually the worst perimeter-shooting team in modern college basketball history.
  • The rumor I read on another message board is that Shannon's concussion symptoms were relatively minor and there is optimism that he'll be back for the Northwestern game (although I did see a little something about maybe Harris being hurt?) I think concussion protocol goes a minimum of 7 days (Day 1 is the day you are injured) in pretty much any circumstance, which is odd to me because they never give a timetable even though that seems to always be the case.
  • Despite our recent losses and lowly position in the Big Ten standings, we are still #25 in KenPom, #27 in NET, and a 6 seed in BracketMatrix.

Robby Discher named Special Teams Coordinator/Tight Ends Coach

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Robby Discher has been named the Illinois football program's special teams coordinator/tight ends coach, head coach Bret Bielema announced Tuesday. Discher comes to Illinois from Tulane, where he helped the Green Wave to AAC and Cotton Bowl championships as special teams coordinator last season.


"We are very excited to have Robby and his family join us here at the University of Illinois," said Bielema. "He will touch our program in many different ways working with our tight ends, specialists, and coordinating our special teams overall. He has proven to have success in every place he has been. I am excited to see and feel his impact here in our program.

"I am grateful for the opportunity to join Coach Bielema's staff at the University of Illinois," said Discher. "During the interview process, I could sense the togetherness amongst the staff. I could sense a real passion to win championships. I could sense a group of winners within the facility starting at the top with Coach Bielema. My wife, Erin, and our kids; Connor, Sydney, and Quinn, cannot wait to get to Champaign."

Discher spent one season at Tulane, one of the best in program history, as Green Wave finished 12-2 and ranked No. 9 in the final AP Poll. Tulane's special teams ranked in the top 30 in six major categories, including punt return defense (3rd, 1.1), blocked kicks (19th, 3), yards per kick return (20th, 22.9), kickoff touchbacks (23rd, 47), yards per punt return (28th, 9.9), and kick return defense (29th, 17.6). Discher had individuals rank in the top 10 in the nation in both kickoff and punt returns, as Lawrence Keys III averaged 27.1 yards per kickoff return to rank eighth in the nation and Jha'Quan Jackson averaged 10.1 yards per punt return to rank 10th in the nation. Tulane's return units combined to outgain their opponents by 478 yards in 2022, with the kick units going +260 yards (754-494) and the punt units posting a margin of +218 yards (227-9) on the season.

Discher arrived at Tulane following a season as the special teams quality control coach for the 14-1 National Champion Georgia Bulldogs in 2021. Georgia ranked first in the SEC and top 25 nationally in punting, averaging 46.8 yards per punt.

Discher was the special teams coordinator and a defensive assistant at Louisiana in 2020. The Ragin' Cajuns finished the season ranked No. 15 in the final AP Poll with help from the No. 2 special teams unit in the nation, according to Phil Steele's Special Teams Efficiency metric. Louisiana finished with a record of 10-1, including a 31-24 win over UTSA in the First Responder Bowl, extending their winning streak to seven games. Discher was named to the American Football Coaches Association's 35 under 35 list while on staff at Louisiana.

Prior to joining the Louisiana staff, Discher spent four seasons as special teams coordinator and tight ends coach at Toledo. From 2016-19, Toledo averaged more than eight wins per season, including an 11-3 season in 2017 that featured a victory in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game over Akron.

Toledo's special teams unit earned nation-wide praise during Discher's tenure, including a No. 1 national ranking in efficiency from Phil Steele in 2018 and No. 2 ranking from ESPN. Toledo led the MAC in return touchdowns that season, taking three punts and one kickoff back for scores, as Discher was nominated for the Broyles Award, given annually to the nation's top assistant coach. He was also named Special Teams Coordinator of the Year by Phil Steele following Toledo's 2018 campaign, after the Rockets led the nation in blocked punts with six.

Discher helped Toledo lead the MAC in punt return average and kickoff coverage in 2017, averaging 15.2 yards per return and 42.5 yards allowed per kickoff. In back-to-back seasons from 2017-18, Toledo ranked in the top 25 nationally in both punt return average and kickoff touchbacks, with the Rockets leading the MAC in the latter category both years.

Throughout his career, Discher has coached three NFL tight ends: Blake Jarwin (Oklahoma State), Mike Roberts (Toledo), and Reggie Gilliam (Toledo).

Prior to his time at Toledo, Discher spent two seasons as a graduate assistant at Oklahoma State from 2014-15. Discher handled a variety of duties, including coaching wide receivers, tight ends and serving as special teams coordinator. Oklahoma State's special teams helped the Cowboys secure one of its biggest wins of the 2014 season, a 38-35 overtime win at No. 18 Oklahoma in which Oklahoma State returned a punt 92 yards for a touchdown to tie the game at 35-35.

Discher was named the 2014 FootballScoop Special Teams Coordinator of the Year, becoming FootballScoop's first graduate assistant winner of any Coach of the Year award. Deservedly so, Discher's unit tied for the national lead with six kicks or punts blocked in 2014.

From 2010-13, Discher was at Sam Houston State, where he began as a graduate assistant and eventually was named special teams coordinator. At Sam Houston, Discher was part of teams that won Southland Conference championships in 2011 and 2012. The Bearkats made it to the FCS Playoffs three times in Discher's tenure, advancing to the FCS Championship Game in 2011 and 2012.

A Kansas City, Missouri, native, Discher attended William Jewell (Mo.) College, where he played wide receiver for the Cardinals from 2006-08. He began his coaching career at Kearney (Mo.) High School in 2009, coaching quarterbacks and linebackers for the Class 4 state champions.

Discher earned a bachelor's degree in physical education from William Jewell in 2009 and added a master's degree in exercise science from Sam Houston State in 2012.

Discher and the former Erin Wilson were married in July 2017. He has two stepchildren, Connor and Sydney. The couple has a baby girl, Quinn, who was born in February 2018.


Coaching Career

YearsUniversityPosition
2023IllinoisSpecial Teams Coordinator/Tight Ends
2022TulaneSpecial Teams Coordinator
2021GeorgiaSpecial Teams Quality Control
2020LouisianaSpecial Teams Coordinator/Defensive Assistant
2016-19ToledoSpecial Teams Coordinator/Tight Ends
2014-15Oklahoma StateGraduate Assistant
2012-13Sam Houston StateSpecial Teams Coordinator
2010-11Sam Houston StateGraduate Assistant
2009Kearny HS (Mo.)Quarterbacks/Linebackers
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