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Why this team is so good

Long-time football fan, no X's and O's knowledge. Here's why we're good from my perspective.
Offense:
  1. Chase Brown is just ridiculously good at RB. I've seen bigger, faster, and/or more explosive RBs but he makes the most out of every inch of space he's given. He reads his blocks, slips through the hole, and explodes in open space. He basically gets about 2 yards/carry more than he should on all kinds of runs. So that makes the running game very hard to stop.
  2. DeVito makes good decisions and has mid-range accuracy. We don't have the game-breaking talent at WR but there's enough there that IW can be a go-to guy and the other WRs can get open enough. TDV can get you 7 yards in the air when you have to get it. He will steal a few 1st downs with his legs. He avoids INTs and sacks by being decisive and making good reads. The scheme and play-calling help him because he usually doesn't have to work too hard to get to the right decision.
  3. BB knows how to develop offensive linemen. If it's his coaching superpower then it's a good one to have. He knows how 300+ lb men move, I suppose.
  4. Lunney is a mastermind. Guys get open because multiple plays run out of the same looks, there is motion and misdirection, and he generally calls plays that are appropriate for the situation. Goal-to-go plays could use a little work but generally the play-calling is all about keeping the chains moving. The tempo of the offense is such that he forces the defense into a call and can then read and adjust the play as needed. So you are very rarely trapped in a play with no chance of success. You can still hold the ball a long time but every so often you go fast and steal a play while the defense isn't ready. It's a schematic advantage and our offensive players seem very comfortable with it.
Defense:
  1. Dominating talent at key positions. Elite CB and DL play. Witherspoon is a shut down corner and the Newton/Randolph tandem create a lot of havoc. The LB corps isn't amazing so we will give up some big runs here and there but the DL helps them a ton. We can get away with more guys in the box because the back end can survive 1-on-1 matchups.
  2. Ryan Walters is just a savant at defensive play calling. The stuff he dials up is very often disruptive. Steal a play or two every drive and get a TFL and that makes it very hard for the opponent to sustain long drives.
  3. Very few guys just standing around covering air. The scheme is effective and guys do their jobs. College football is very big on misdirection but we hardly ever get fooled because nobody is freelancing. Guys trust the system and don't just chase the action of the play. That discipline means that a lot of the cute misdirection plays end up in TFLs.
Special Teams/Game Management:
  1. I actually think our lack of a long-range FG kicker helps our game management. We go for it more on 4th down which is the right thing to do anyway. The key is that we know we're doing it in advance and use 3rd down to set up 4th down sometimes.
  2. We aren't desperate so we don't gamble on special teams. Just do the basics and let the offense and defense win the games.
  3. The team is confident enough to perform in clutch situations. I can't think of a single back-breaking FG miss. The Indiana game was lost on special teams but the punting issues have been fixed.
College football isn't that complicated. We're just insanely well-coached this year and there's enough talent to make that pay off. 6-1 doesn't really tell the story of our success because we are flat-out dominating most of these games in terms of yardage gained vs. allowed. Second-order wins are off the charts. The Indiana game was more of a fluke loss than any of the 6 wins were unlikely. If we can maintain this level of play we will finish 10-2. I do think the more talented teams in the country will be able to negate some of these advantages just based on the talent differential. So I wouldn't expect to beat a top-10 team, but you can do pretty darn well beating everyone else and just being opportunistic against the very best competition.

Can't help myself -- rotation guess

I explicitly said that it was pointless to do this but it's mid-October and I am compelled to try. Here's what I think our rotation looks like this year:

PG: Clark (20), Epps (20)
SG: Shannon (32), Clark (4), Epps (4)
SF: Melendez (20), Rodgers (20)
PF: Mayer (24), Goode (12), Melendez (4)
C: Hawkins (28), Dainja (8), Mayer (4)

Total Minutes: Shannon (32), Mayer (28), Hawkins (28), Melendez (24), Clark (24), Epps (24), Rodgers (20), Goode (12), Dainja (8)
Lieb and Harris on the bench.

  • I'm forecasting an even split between Clark and Epps because of what Doug has been reporting. I don't think we really go 5-wing so I always have one of them at the PG spot.
  • Shannon is the "star" so he gets the most minutes. Nobody is a Trent Frazier this year playing 35-40 mpg.
  • I think RJ is the starter but Rodgers is right on his heels. Good competition there and if you want SF minutes on this team you will need to be productive.
  • The 5 spot is the real enigma here. It may change dramatically based on matchups. I do think Hawkins gets a chance to lock that spot down. Dainja is an enigma but if he delivers his role could really expand. Otherwise I think we see more lineups with Mayer at the 5 or maybe even Lieb gets to contribute.
  • I think Goode is important to this team but I don't know who we takes minutes from unless we have a wing at the 5 spot.
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Chase Brown named B1G player of the week

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Illinois running back Chase Brown was named the Big Ten co-Offensive Player of the Week, the conference office announced Monday.

Brown ran for 180 yards on 41 carries in Illinois' 26-14 win over Minnesota on Saturday. The win moved Illinois to #18 in the AP Poll and #20 in the Coaches Poll.

"First of all, it's great for this team, but I think about the fans as well, the people that have stuck by us," said Brown after the win. "This is just the start. I'm so excited that we're playing at this level. We all expect to play at this level and continue to win games, but for the guys in this locker room and a lot of guys that are going through their last season and last year eligibility, that was a goal. That's what we wanted to do. Moving forward, we just got to keep the good energy moving and continue to push because we have good teams on the schedule."

Brown became the first running back in the nation to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark this season. He has 1,059 rushing yards to lead the nation, while also leading the nation with 1,166 all-purpose yards.

Brown became just the third Illini in history to rush for 1,000 yards in two seasons, joining an elite group that includes Jim Grabowski and Robert Holcombe. He has rushed for over 100 yards in an Illinois-record eight straight games.

Brown earned his fourth career Big Ten Player of the Week honor and second this season.

So as it turns out...

LB Antwon Hayden, OLB / DE Mason Murigan, and OLB / DE Calvin Smith were all underrated by the scouting services.

All three are having monster years and pushing for 4-star status.

I'll have a story on it. I'm also working on a recruiting roundup on guys they should try to flip. They have to parlay the on-the-field success into a better '23 class. It's not too late.

I-L-L ...

I have the good fortune of having spent June 9-Oct 2 up in northeast Minnesota on the doorstep of the BWCA so this will be my first game of the season to watch live. Pretty stoked about that.

At the risk of being hyperbolic, these next two games are huge IMO. Two of our recent B1G West nemeses. Neither team is a pushover by any stretch. Both still have a lot to play for. More importantly, we still have a lot to play for. I can only think of a couple times in the last decade when we got into the middle third of the season in a position to make noise in the division. Those seasons both featured a substantial returning-to-earth as the season progressed.

It feels different this time. BB and company have the team on a trend of improving a little each week, and I'm not sitting here hoping they can hold it together with bubble gum and twine long enough to get to 6 wins before the bottom falls out. I expect a slug fest tonight (and next week too for that matter) and really don't know how things will pan out. But I haven't been this enthusiastic going into game 6 since 2007 after the surprise upset of PSU. October is fun again.

Go Illini!!!

A few notes...

A few notes after some conversations at Big Ten Media Days in Minneapolis.....

Illinois will have at least one more ride to give in 2023. The priority is still a shooter. I think it's more likely someone from the portal than another high school kid. JMO.

I'll be heading out to Sunrise Christian to see Zacharie Perrin sometime this fall. Still working out a good day to go.

I actually like Carlos Harris a bit better than ZZ Clark if if comes down to one over the other. Harris is more of a pure point guard, better passer, and a stronger finisher even though he's a bit shorter. Harris' lack of offers is astonishing.

A wing to track in 2024 is Dwayne Pierce from Christ the King in NY. Illinois was just in to see him. I think they have a good shot if they push hard.

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Jayden Epps vs. Skyy Clark for starting point guard will be a discussion once the season starts, IMO. Everyone is assuming it will be Clark. I wouldn't assume that, and that says more about Epps than it does Clark.

Ty Rodgers will have fans wanting to see him in the stating lineup by Christmas.

Remaining games left

Watching Nebraska/Purdue. Literally, no defense here. Nebraska is the worst defense in the league. Offense is middle of the pack. I’m not sure I see how they can beat us.

Purdue’s defense is middle of the pack. Better than Nebraska but nowhere near Minny.

MSU as the 2nd worst defense and the 3rd worst offense.

Michigan is clearly our hardest final game. 2nd best defense now after we throttled Minny. Their offense is 2nd best though. If things go well, it could be a top ranked matchup In Ann Arbor.

NW’s stats are weird considering how bad they’ve looked. Not sure what to make of this.

Newton and Randolph

I'm as big of a fan of Ryan Walters as anyone, but I think some might be sleeping on how good these 2 players are. They are both game wreckers, and I think there is a good chance both end up in the 2023 draft.

Keith Randolph should be in the league for a long time. He reminds me of a guy that was a favorite of mine on the Bears the last few years, Akiem Hicks. Randolph is listed at 6'5", 305. Hicks is listed at 6'5", 324. I don't know if Randolph will ever get that big, but they have a similar impact on the game. Randolph routinely blows up running plays, and puts pressure on the QB on a regular basis. He's a prototype 3-4 DE, but could also play strong-side DE in a 4-3.

Newton is playing dominant football in a scheme that probably isn't ideal for his frame. I think he ends up being an under tackle in a 4-3 in the pros, and a good one. He's playing end in a 3-4, and looks great doing it, but I don't see him playing that position in the NFL.

Fun seeing these guys get the attention they deserve locally, but I'm not sure people know how good both of them are. With Avery playing well in the middle, the Illini have arguably the best DL in the B1G. That's kind of crazy when you consider the type of talent that some of the other programs bring in on a regular basis.
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