Our next game is another Big Ten game, home vs. Penn State. Penn State can really shoot the 3 but otherwise we're going to be favored by about 8.
After that we close out the non-conference with two cupcakes and Missouri. Missouri is good enough to be a threat but we will be substantial favorites. We'll get a better read on them after their home game against Kansas.
We get a little bit of a bye around New Year's weekend. Will be interesting to see if that's a chance to get Luke Goode back for conference season or if he'll need a few more weeks. MLK Day game @Minnesota wouldn't be the worst time to insert him either.
Our game @NW is over winter break so it's easy to imagine an orange takeover of their arena. On paper right now that's the only game we're not favored by 5+ until a big matchup with Indiana at home on January 19th. I assume Krush will be back in full force by then. I think there is tons of opportunity in the schedule between now and the end of January. Lots of chances for us to cut down on turnovers, get Clark and Rogers going, and get Goode back in the lineup. This will be a real chance to see what kind of competitors we have when we're slight favorites and will be the hunted every game with teams that could knock us off. Will we show up consistently every game and win the games we should win on paper? I'm optimistic but we haven't really been in that situation yet with this group.
In theory, this team should be playing its best basketball in February and March. Well, that's when all our remaining tough road games are. We'll be favored in every home game (don't play Purdue at SFC this year.) so let's look at the road schedule, dates, and KenPom ranks of opponents.
Jan 4 @NW (#63) - will it be a road game or will we take over?
Jan 10 @Nebraska (#71) - will Nebraska fans give up on this team by then?
Jan 16 @Minnesota (#150) - Minnesota is awful
Jan 28 @Wisconsin (#39) - circle this one on your calendar, but we will have already seen them at home which should help
Feb 4 @Iowa (#22) - as of right now, this is the next game where we'll be an underdog in Vegas and it's not until February (13 games between now and then)
Feb 14 @Penn State (#36) - do their fans show up on Valentine's Day?
Feb 18 @Indiana (#10) - I know their fans will show up. This will be a battle royale. Early game on a Saturday and this will be incredibly tough to win.
Feb 26 @Ohio State (#20) - Neither team has much home court advantage in this series. tOSU would be a contender but their conference SOS is ridiculously hard.
Mar 5 @Purdue (#5) - This could be for all the marbles. Does Edey wear down by the end of the season? This will be a great prep for postseason play.
15-5 in conference seems like a very reasonable prediction as of this moment. KenPom has us 13-7. Purdue, Indiana, and Maryland look like the other Big Ten Championship contenders on paper. Wisconsin always seems to hang around in the standings so they are a dark horse. Purdue is the obvious favorite right now but they rely so much on Zach Edey. How many minutes can a guy really play at 7'4" 290?
Other than the start time of the @Indiana game, there's nothing about this schedule that I dislike. You always have to play the games and there will be surprises but I'm going to enjoy the ride with this team. The rest of the season looks like it will be a ton of fun.
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