Helluva year
- By BigWill
- Oskee Wow Wow
- 1909 Replies
Just an AI post !Below is a concise, data-driven overview of the United States economy since Donald Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, 2025, based on available information up to April 24, 2025. I aim to present key economic indicators and developments neutrally, focusing on measurable metrics and avoiding speculative or polarized narratives. Where data is mixed or uncertain, I note it.
- Economic Growth (GDP):
- Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024, reflecting solid growth before Trump’s inauguration.
- Post-inauguration, Q1 2025 forecasts have deteriorated, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimating a contraction of -2.4% annualized as of late February 2025, driven by policy uncertainty and tariff impacts.
- Some sources note the economy inherited by Trump was robust, with 2.8% annualized growth in 2024, but recent policy shifts have clouded the outlook.
- Unemployment and Labor Market:
- The unemployment rate was 4.1% in December 2024, near full employment, with 256,000 jobs added that month.
- Since inauguration, reports indicate softening labor market conditions, with layoffs rising and hiring slowing, though specific unemployment figures for Q1 2025 are not yet finalized.
- Construction job growth remains strong, at its fastest pace since Trump’s first term, but manufacturing job growth is negative, though declining at the slowest rate since 2016.
- Inflation and Consumer Prices:
- Inflation was 2.7% in December 2024, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but down from earlier peaks.
- In March 2025, consumer prices fell month-over-month for the first time in nearly five years, driven by lower energy, gas, and transportation costs, with core inflation at its lowest since March 2021.
- However, tariffs implemented since February 2025 (e.g., 25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China) are expected to exert upward pressure on prices, with forecasts predicting PCE inflation of 2.4–2.5% for 2025.
- Stock Market Performance:
- The S&P 500 was down 15.6% from inauguration to April 7, 2025, with a 17.6% drop from its February 19 peak, nearing bear market territory.
- Volatility spiked post-inauguration due to tariff announcements and policy uncertainty, with $3–10 trillion in global equity value erased in early 2025.
- The Dow Jones fell from 45,000 to 38,000, and Bitcoin dropped 30% from $109,000 to $77,000 since January 20.
- Consumer and Business Sentiment:
- Consumer confidence dropped sharply, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling nearly 16% in February 2025 compared to a year ago, driven by tariff and inflation concerns.
- Business sentiment also weakened, with the National Federation of Independent Business optimism index falling to 100.7 in February 2025, reflecting uncertainty over tariffs and policy shifts.
- The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit 234 in February 2025, its highest since the pandemic, correlating with slower investment and economic activity.
- Trade and Tariffs:
- Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China starting mid-February 2025, with additional 54% tariffs on Chinese imports announced in April.
- These tariffs have disrupted global trade, with retaliatory measures from China and Canada (e.g., 25% electricity surcharges by Ontario). Economists warn of higher consumer prices and slower growth.
- The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast, citing U.S. tariffs as a drag on the U.S. and global economies.
- Fiscal Policy and Debt:
- The federal government faces a funding deadline in March 2025 and a debt ceiling crisis, with the Biden administration taking accounting measures to avoid default in January.
- The national debt was $36.2 trillion at the end of 2024, with the 2024 deficit at $2 trillion. Trump’s proposed tax cuts and spending reductions remain under debate, with no resolution yet.
- Congress approved cuts to Medicaid and food assistance to fund tax cuts, raising concerns about social safety nets.
- Investment and Policy Initiatives:
- Trump signed an executive order on March 31, 2025, creating the United States Investment Accelerator to streamline investments over $1 billion, claiming $3 trillion in private investments secured.
- Deregulation efforts and energy policies (e.g., “drill, baby, drill” and halting Green New Deal measures) aim to boost fossil fuel production, though impacts on investment are not yet quantifiable.
- Economic Outlook and Risks:
- Forecasters warn of slower growth or potential recession in 2025, driven by tariffs, deportations, and federal layoffs, though some argue the economy’s resilience may mitigate these risks.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted in March 2025 that the economy remains “in a good place” but faces elevated uncertainty, with consumer spending holding up despite low sentiment.
- Partisan divides persist, with some sources praising Trump’s policies for curbing inflation and others criticizing them as erratic and inflationary.
My post was ON REAL RESULTS !
