A few CFB/Illini thoughts as we head into the First "Great 8" in the college football world.
1. I don't think anyone should have been surprised by the results in the first round. I thought Indiana had the best chance of an upset (I picked ND), but the other three looked like clear mismatches. Turned out all four weren't close.
2. That said, the "home team advantage" may just be the quality of the four home teams. I'm taking all 4 winners from this week to advance to the CFB semis. With a better QB situation, I'd take Georgia, but this is the worst GA team in years playing with an iffy backup. At least the starter isn't that good, which will limit the drop off.
3. Right now and probably all year, Ohio State is the best team in CFB. They and #1 seed Oregon have the toughest path to win it. Committees should care less about the last team in, and more about seeding. There isn't a single data point that supported seeding tOSU over PSU, and that mistake messed up the whole draw. If switched, the draw is great and the matchups better.
4. So far, I'm pleased with Illinois' efforts in the portal. It's more about whom they haven't lost than whom they've added, but Illinois should end portal season with an upgraded roster from what was expected to return. On the "loss side," the two biggest losses appear to be a below average punter (I'm happy to see a change at the position) and a depth piece of WR. Thus far, every one of our transfers besides Boyer (Kentucky) has transferred down, and Boyer had 0 catches this post season, yikes.
5. On the incoming side, two guys who took a lot of snaps from Wisconsin's defense has come in. Pretty sure neither was particularly highly regarded by PFF, tho it's hardly disastrous to replace guys who weren't in the IL rotation with guys that were in Wisky's rotation. That said, looks like both guys need to produce more like they did in 2023 than they did in 2024. From what I can tell, Wisky's D gave up a few less YPG and almost identical points to the Illini D.
6. The backup QB is a depth piece, and the WR from Ball State is the guy who we probably should be most excited about. I'd love Illinois to add a game breaking WR with its largest amount of portal funds, but I'm not expecting it. The couple of OL visits look like guys who'd be solid adds, but Illinois still needs 1-2 more DL. Any other position, you'd need someone who plays at a high level to justify the add IMHO.
7. If Illinois ends up performing similar next season (8-9 regular season wins), I'd anticipate it will be improvement on the defense that drives it. Outside of the unknown that is Jacas, the D isn't losing players it will struggle to replace. Would be awesome if somehow Jacas didn't leave and the incoming DL ended up being competent starter/rotational guys. Again, the sked is there to back up this season with another solid one (I'd consider 7-5 solid for Illinois), but better is certainly there to be had.
1. I don't think anyone should have been surprised by the results in the first round. I thought Indiana had the best chance of an upset (I picked ND), but the other three looked like clear mismatches. Turned out all four weren't close.
2. That said, the "home team advantage" may just be the quality of the four home teams. I'm taking all 4 winners from this week to advance to the CFB semis. With a better QB situation, I'd take Georgia, but this is the worst GA team in years playing with an iffy backup. At least the starter isn't that good, which will limit the drop off.
3. Right now and probably all year, Ohio State is the best team in CFB. They and #1 seed Oregon have the toughest path to win it. Committees should care less about the last team in, and more about seeding. There isn't a single data point that supported seeding tOSU over PSU, and that mistake messed up the whole draw. If switched, the draw is great and the matchups better.
4. So far, I'm pleased with Illinois' efforts in the portal. It's more about whom they haven't lost than whom they've added, but Illinois should end portal season with an upgraded roster from what was expected to return. On the "loss side," the two biggest losses appear to be a below average punter (I'm happy to see a change at the position) and a depth piece of WR. Thus far, every one of our transfers besides Boyer (Kentucky) has transferred down, and Boyer had 0 catches this post season, yikes.
5. On the incoming side, two guys who took a lot of snaps from Wisconsin's defense has come in. Pretty sure neither was particularly highly regarded by PFF, tho it's hardly disastrous to replace guys who weren't in the IL rotation with guys that were in Wisky's rotation. That said, looks like both guys need to produce more like they did in 2023 than they did in 2024. From what I can tell, Wisky's D gave up a few less YPG and almost identical points to the Illini D.
6. The backup QB is a depth piece, and the WR from Ball State is the guy who we probably should be most excited about. I'd love Illinois to add a game breaking WR with its largest amount of portal funds, but I'm not expecting it. The couple of OL visits look like guys who'd be solid adds, but Illinois still needs 1-2 more DL. Any other position, you'd need someone who plays at a high level to justify the add IMHO.
7. If Illinois ends up performing similar next season (8-9 regular season wins), I'd anticipate it will be improvement on the defense that drives it. Outside of the unknown that is Jacas, the D isn't losing players it will struggle to replace. Would be awesome if somehow Jacas didn't leave and the incoming DL ended up being competent starter/rotational guys. Again, the sked is there to back up this season with another solid one (I'd consider 7-5 solid for Illinois), but better is certainly there to be had.
