Incoming long post, sorry.
I have watched Cal's last three basketball games.
I have done quite a bit of research on Martin's tenure at Tennessee, and his current tenure at Cal.
A few things first:
But how did he end up with Moore and Rabb?
Well, Rabb inexplicably came back to school after being almost assured a top-10 draft selection in last year's NBA draft. A good coach and program manager would never count on a top-10 draft pick coming back to school. You'll see who Cuonzo's backup plan was for Rabb a bit further down in this post.
As for Charlie Moore, he was committed to Memphis and Josh Pastner as of November 2015. Pastner took the Georgia Tech job after the 2015-2016 season. Moore decommitted in April 2016 and signed with Cal.
What that means is that as of March 2016, Cuonzo Martin was probably under the assumption that he was not going to have either Ivan Rabb or Charlie Moore on his 2016-2017 squad.
Terrible roster management.
A squad without those two would be far, far worse than Illinois right now.
He had 2 years to find a replacement for PG Tyrone Wallace and he lucked into one at the last second with Charlie Moore. Every single one of you who wants Martin hired over Williams was flaming the shit out of Groce for the exact same thing, and now you're "fine" with Cuonzo Martin.
And this terrible roster management shows if you watch their games. Cal has absolutely no depth on their roster outside of those three guys listed above. This team would get bodied in the Big Ten.
Tonight against ASU, Charlie Moore picked up two quick fouls. In comes Senior backup PG Sam Singer, whose PER in Pac-12 conference play is worse than Jaylon Tate in Big 10 conference play this year. ASU doubles Ivan Rabb on every touch, and Cal looks dumbfounded offensively.
If Moore had gone to Memphis as originally planned, that's the guy who is starting at point guard for Cal. And to think about how we were all sick of Tate.
If you can't stand watching Thorne at Illinois, get this: Thorne would be playing 20mpg for Cal right now. Their centers are terrible. So terrible in fact that Martin is often forced to move Rabb to Center and instead play 4 guards/wings. This is college though, so that's not so bad, right? Well, in this case it is: the 4th wing for Cal in that scenario is Senior 6'7 Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo (ESPN Profile Link), who is a career 26% field goal shooter.
If I haven't illustrated this well enough yet, the point is this: Cal has absolutely no talent outside of Rabb, Moore, and Bird. And as of March 2016, it was highly unlikely Cal was going to have Rabb or Moore on their roster this year.
Other issues? I'm not impressed with the game coaching. This is only a 3-game sample that I have watched, and while Martin is proving to be more flexible than Groce (example: he covers up his immobile centers and slow-footed guards by playing lots of zone), I'm not impressed with the other things. Example: against ASU tonight Cal has committed 3 turnovers off of BLOB/SLOB plays and the game isn't even over yet. (If ASU were in the B10, they would be ranked #13 of 14 on Kenpom)
This is a pattern now with Martin. He takes over a program in decent condition, recruits a few one-and-dones, has a good season or two and then bails before his failure to recruit any depth catches up to him. He left Tennessee a dumpster fire with very little talent, going to Cal right before things went downhill. And after this season at Cal, they lose Rabb and Jabari Bird and will struggle to make the tournament next year.
As I have said a million times now, there is absolutely a reason why Cuonzo Martin wants the Illinois job so badly, and why he will take the Missouri job if we don't give ours to him. It's because this is his best shot at getting a better job (Illinois) and if he doesn't get it he will make a lateral move to Missouri who will overpay (and he'll be closer to his roots).
The irony here is that if Cuonzo came to Illinois, he would be inheriting what is likely the #8 recruiting class in the country, a class that he didn't even recruit. So we're going to take this guy who has shown horrible program management at his last two stops and questionable in-game coaching, and reward him with a raise and a top-10 recruiting class that he had no part in recruiting?
Talk about gaming the f***ing system.
So yeah, Cuonzo would come here, keep the class, and he might even land some local guys over the next few years like Finke, Dosumnu and Okoro. Cuonzo has proven he can land elite players. But he has also proven he has no concept of roster management, and in 3 years when Tilmon is gone and the 2015 class graduates we could be looking at the same exact problem.
Is he a good enough coach to deliver with these 2017 recruits and ignore those types of concerns? I don't think so.
He'd be "fine". I'd be fine with him, because I'm confident he'd land enough of the upcoming downstate talent to keep Illinois relevant. But I don't see him winning a B10 championship or taking Illinois to a Final Four.
/endrant
I have watched Cal's last three basketball games.
I have done quite a bit of research on Martin's tenure at Tennessee, and his current tenure at Cal.
A few things first:
- Ivan Rabb is one of the best 5 players in the country. He is undoubtedly a top-10 pick. He's tall, long, a great rebounder, has a solid handle and is unbelievably fluid offensively on the block and in the paint. He is an elite passer for a big guy. Props to Cuonzo Martin and his staff for signing this guy.
- Charlie Moore is a really good player. Handles it, hits threes, makes good passes. Solid defensively. Can easily see him being an All-American as a Junior/Senior.
- Jabari Bird is a 6'6 version of DJ Richardson. He's not quick with the basketball, and 55% of his FGA are three-pointers. Richardson shot 59% of his FGA as threes as a Senior. I'd take Bird over Richardson, but it's close.
But how did he end up with Moore and Rabb?
Well, Rabb inexplicably came back to school after being almost assured a top-10 draft selection in last year's NBA draft. A good coach and program manager would never count on a top-10 draft pick coming back to school. You'll see who Cuonzo's backup plan was for Rabb a bit further down in this post.
As for Charlie Moore, he was committed to Memphis and Josh Pastner as of November 2015. Pastner took the Georgia Tech job after the 2015-2016 season. Moore decommitted in April 2016 and signed with Cal.
What that means is that as of March 2016, Cuonzo Martin was probably under the assumption that he was not going to have either Ivan Rabb or Charlie Moore on his 2016-2017 squad.
Terrible roster management.
A squad without those two would be far, far worse than Illinois right now.
He had 2 years to find a replacement for PG Tyrone Wallace and he lucked into one at the last second with Charlie Moore. Every single one of you who wants Martin hired over Williams was flaming the shit out of Groce for the exact same thing, and now you're "fine" with Cuonzo Martin.
And this terrible roster management shows if you watch their games. Cal has absolutely no depth on their roster outside of those three guys listed above. This team would get bodied in the Big Ten.
Tonight against ASU, Charlie Moore picked up two quick fouls. In comes Senior backup PG Sam Singer, whose PER in Pac-12 conference play is worse than Jaylon Tate in Big 10 conference play this year. ASU doubles Ivan Rabb on every touch, and Cal looks dumbfounded offensively.
If Moore had gone to Memphis as originally planned, that's the guy who is starting at point guard for Cal. And to think about how we were all sick of Tate.
If you can't stand watching Thorne at Illinois, get this: Thorne would be playing 20mpg for Cal right now. Their centers are terrible. So terrible in fact that Martin is often forced to move Rabb to Center and instead play 4 guards/wings. This is college though, so that's not so bad, right? Well, in this case it is: the 4th wing for Cal in that scenario is Senior 6'7 Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo (ESPN Profile Link), who is a career 26% field goal shooter.
If I haven't illustrated this well enough yet, the point is this: Cal has absolutely no talent outside of Rabb, Moore, and Bird. And as of March 2016, it was highly unlikely Cal was going to have Rabb or Moore on their roster this year.
Other issues? I'm not impressed with the game coaching. This is only a 3-game sample that I have watched, and while Martin is proving to be more flexible than Groce (example: he covers up his immobile centers and slow-footed guards by playing lots of zone), I'm not impressed with the other things. Example: against ASU tonight Cal has committed 3 turnovers off of BLOB/SLOB plays and the game isn't even over yet. (If ASU were in the B10, they would be ranked #13 of 14 on Kenpom)
This is a pattern now with Martin. He takes over a program in decent condition, recruits a few one-and-dones, has a good season or two and then bails before his failure to recruit any depth catches up to him. He left Tennessee a dumpster fire with very little talent, going to Cal right before things went downhill. And after this season at Cal, they lose Rabb and Jabari Bird and will struggle to make the tournament next year.
As I have said a million times now, there is absolutely a reason why Cuonzo Martin wants the Illinois job so badly, and why he will take the Missouri job if we don't give ours to him. It's because this is his best shot at getting a better job (Illinois) and if he doesn't get it he will make a lateral move to Missouri who will overpay (and he'll be closer to his roots).
The irony here is that if Cuonzo came to Illinois, he would be inheriting what is likely the #8 recruiting class in the country, a class that he didn't even recruit. So we're going to take this guy who has shown horrible program management at his last two stops and questionable in-game coaching, and reward him with a raise and a top-10 recruiting class that he had no part in recruiting?
Talk about gaming the f***ing system.
So yeah, Cuonzo would come here, keep the class, and he might even land some local guys over the next few years like Finke, Dosumnu and Okoro. Cuonzo has proven he can land elite players. But he has also proven he has no concept of roster management, and in 3 years when Tilmon is gone and the 2015 class graduates we could be looking at the same exact problem.
Is he a good enough coach to deliver with these 2017 recruits and ignore those types of concerns? I don't think so.
He'd be "fine". I'd be fine with him, because I'm confident he'd land enough of the upcoming downstate talent to keep Illinois relevant. But I don't see him winning a B10 championship or taking Illinois to a Final Four.
/endrant
