Stealing this from the Mizzou board. One of their posters had a quality post about the perspective of a rebuild. Obviously some of it's based around Mizzou, so I'm going to save you all from reading that garbage.
Thanks for your post, @mizzoucobra.
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All situations are different in terms of a rebuild, but there is a definite trend among what I would consider decently successful coaches when taking over a new program. To try and isolate what that trend was, I looked at:
1. What I consider current at least somewhat successful coaches at high majors
2. Non blue blood programs
3. Taking over a program that was not successful immediately prior to taking over (aka rebuild)
4. 3+ years at current program
5. Not considering prior stops by coach for "successful" designation
Using Pomeroy's ratings, looking at: 3 year average rank of prior coach, and current coach's resume at the school.
First, let's use Cuonzo at Mizzou as an example, although he doesn't otherwise qualify.
Cuonzo Martin -- Mizzou
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 169 (2015: 192nd, 2016: 159th, 2017: 156th)
2018: 40th (8 Seed)
2019: 96th
Brad Underwood -- Illinois
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 84 (2015: 61st, 2016: 125th. 2017: 66th)
2018: 102nd
2019: 71st
Here are the others (ordered in level of 3 year prior average)
Rick Barnes -- Tennessee
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 57.6
2016: 103rd
2017: 57th
2018: 13th (3 seed)
2019: 5th (Tourney Lock)
Matt Painter -- Purdue
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 69
2006: 155th
2007: 30th (9 Seed)
2008: 30th (6 Seed)
2009: 18th (5 Seed)
2010: 15th (4 Seed)
2011: 9th (3 Seed)
2012: 30th (10 Seed)
2013: 74th
2014: 93rd
2015: 44th (9 Seed)
2016: 9th (5 Seed)
2017: 19th (4 Seed)
2018: 5th (2 Seed)
2019: 9th (Likely Tournament)
Tony Bennett -- Virginia
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 80.6
2010: 76th
2011: 103rd
2012: 33rd (10 Seed)
2013: 41st
2014: 4th (1 Seed)
2015: 6th (2 Seed)
2016: 4th (1 Seed)
2017: 12th (5 Seed)
2018: 2nd (1 Seed)
2019: 3rd (Tourney Lock)
Lon Kruger -- Oklahoma
3 Year Prior Average -- 85
2012: 105th
2013: 51st (10 Seed)
2014: 30th (5 Seed)
2015: 11th (3 Seed)
2016: 10th (2 Seed)
2017: 65th
2018: 48th (10 Seed)
2019: 40th
Dana Altman -- Oregon
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 108
2011: 92nd
2012: 59th
2013: 35th (12 Seed)
2014: 28th (7 Seed)
2015: 45th (8 Seed)
2016: 12th (1 Seed)
2017: 10th (3 Seed)
2018: 75th
2019: 59th
Mike Anderson -- Arkansas
3 Year Prior Average -- 119.6
2012: 127th
2013: 80th
2014: 44th
2015: 29th (5 Seed)
2016: 73rd
2017: 35th (8 Seed)
2018: 44th (7 Seed)
2019: 56th
Fran McCaffery -- Iowa
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 135.6
2011: 88th
2012: 109th
2013: 29th
2014: 22nd (10 Seed)
2015: 23rd (7 Seed)
2016: 23rd (7 Seed)
2017: 78th
2018: 81st
2019: 24th (Likely Tournament)
Buzz Williams -- Va Tech
3 Year Prior Average -- 142nd
2015: 175th
2016: 63rd
2017: 50th (9 Seed)
2018: 33rd (8 Seed)
2019: 10th (Likely Tournament)
Bruce Pearl -- Auburn
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 155.5
2015: 139th
2016: 189th
2017: 82nd
2018: 23rd (4 seed)
2019: 14th (Likely Tournament)
Ben Howland -- Mississippi State
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 206.6
2016: 78th
2017: 88th
2018: 54th
2019: 26th (Likely Tournament)
Scott Drew -- Baylor
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 104 (note only 2 years of ranks available, plus extreme circumstances puts them down here)
2004: 232nd
2005: 236th
2006: 154th
2007: 107th
2008: 41st (11 Seed)
2009: 33rd
2010: 8th (3 Seed)
2011: 80th
2012: 13th (3 Seed)
2013: 28th
2014: 26th (6 Seed)
2015: 14th (3 Seed)
2016: 25th (5 Seed)
2017: 13th (3 Seed)
2018: 34th
2019: 33rd
There are a few other coaches that will qualify here that have done very well at their current school, but don't qualify yet (Jamie Dixon, Chris Beard notably). There could be a few other I've missed, but I believe this is a pretty solid sample.
But here are some takeaways:
1. Not one coach of this group took a team to the tournament in their first year(Until Cuonzo qualifies).
2. 2 of 11 took a team in their 2nd year.
3. 6 of 11 took a tam in their 3rd year.
4. Assuming MSU makes it this year, 9 of 11 made it in their 4th year (Tony Bennett was close and had made it in year 3, then there's Baylor...).
5. Of the 6 coaches taking over a team with a 3 year prior composite ranking of 100 or below (and excluding Scott Drew)
Tournament Year 1: 0
Tournament Year 2: 0
Tournament Year 3: 2 (a 9 and a 12 seed)
Tournament Year 4: 6 (4, 5, 7, 8, and 10 Seeds, plus whatever MSU gets)
Note: This isn't meant to be a defense, a complaint or otherwise of the jobMartin Underwood has done or will do. But rather to illustrate what other good coaches have done. And it should be noted that there's just not a whole lot of guys that qualify as "good coaches" in my book under those parameters.
Thanks for your post, @mizzoucobra.
.
.
.
All situations are different in terms of a rebuild, but there is a definite trend among what I would consider decently successful coaches when taking over a new program. To try and isolate what that trend was, I looked at:
1. What I consider current at least somewhat successful coaches at high majors
2. Non blue blood programs
3. Taking over a program that was not successful immediately prior to taking over (aka rebuild)
4. 3+ years at current program
5. Not considering prior stops by coach for "successful" designation
Using Pomeroy's ratings, looking at: 3 year average rank of prior coach, and current coach's resume at the school.
Cuonzo Martin -- Mizzou
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 169 (2015: 192nd, 2016: 159th, 2017: 156th)
2018: 40th (8 Seed)
2019: 96th
Brad Underwood -- Illinois
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 84 (2015: 61st, 2016: 125th. 2017: 66th)
2018: 102nd
2019: 71st
Here are the others (ordered in level of 3 year prior average)
Rick Barnes -- Tennessee
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 57.6
2016: 103rd
2017: 57th
2018: 13th (3 seed)
2019: 5th (Tourney Lock)
Matt Painter -- Purdue
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 69
2006: 155th
2007: 30th (9 Seed)
2008: 30th (6 Seed)
2009: 18th (5 Seed)
2010: 15th (4 Seed)
2011: 9th (3 Seed)
2012: 30th (10 Seed)
2013: 74th
2014: 93rd
2015: 44th (9 Seed)
2016: 9th (5 Seed)
2017: 19th (4 Seed)
2018: 5th (2 Seed)
2019: 9th (Likely Tournament)
Tony Bennett -- Virginia
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 80.6
2010: 76th
2011: 103rd
2012: 33rd (10 Seed)
2013: 41st
2014: 4th (1 Seed)
2015: 6th (2 Seed)
2016: 4th (1 Seed)
2017: 12th (5 Seed)
2018: 2nd (1 Seed)
2019: 3rd (Tourney Lock)
Lon Kruger -- Oklahoma
3 Year Prior Average -- 85
2012: 105th
2013: 51st (10 Seed)
2014: 30th (5 Seed)
2015: 11th (3 Seed)
2016: 10th (2 Seed)
2017: 65th
2018: 48th (10 Seed)
2019: 40th
Dana Altman -- Oregon
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 108
2011: 92nd
2012: 59th
2013: 35th (12 Seed)
2014: 28th (7 Seed)
2015: 45th (8 Seed)
2016: 12th (1 Seed)
2017: 10th (3 Seed)
2018: 75th
2019: 59th
Mike Anderson -- Arkansas
3 Year Prior Average -- 119.6
2012: 127th
2013: 80th
2014: 44th
2015: 29th (5 Seed)
2016: 73rd
2017: 35th (8 Seed)
2018: 44th (7 Seed)
2019: 56th
Fran McCaffery -- Iowa
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 135.6
2011: 88th
2012: 109th
2013: 29th
2014: 22nd (10 Seed)
2015: 23rd (7 Seed)
2016: 23rd (7 Seed)
2017: 78th
2018: 81st
2019: 24th (Likely Tournament)
Buzz Williams -- Va Tech
3 Year Prior Average -- 142nd
2015: 175th
2016: 63rd
2017: 50th (9 Seed)
2018: 33rd (8 Seed)
2019: 10th (Likely Tournament)
Bruce Pearl -- Auburn
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 155.5
2015: 139th
2016: 189th
2017: 82nd
2018: 23rd (4 seed)
2019: 14th (Likely Tournament)
Ben Howland -- Mississippi State
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 206.6
2016: 78th
2017: 88th
2018: 54th
2019: 26th (Likely Tournament)
Scott Drew -- Baylor
3 Year Prior Rank Average -- 104 (note only 2 years of ranks available, plus extreme circumstances puts them down here)
2004: 232nd
2005: 236th
2006: 154th
2007: 107th
2008: 41st (11 Seed)
2009: 33rd
2010: 8th (3 Seed)
2011: 80th
2012: 13th (3 Seed)
2013: 28th
2014: 26th (6 Seed)
2015: 14th (3 Seed)
2016: 25th (5 Seed)
2017: 13th (3 Seed)
2018: 34th
2019: 33rd
There are a few other coaches that will qualify here that have done very well at their current school, but don't qualify yet (Jamie Dixon, Chris Beard notably). There could be a few other I've missed, but I believe this is a pretty solid sample.
But here are some takeaways:
1. Not one coach of this group took a team to the tournament in their first year
2. 2 of 11 took a team in their 2nd year.
3. 6 of 11 took a tam in their 3rd year.
4. Assuming MSU makes it this year, 9 of 11 made it in their 4th year (Tony Bennett was close and had made it in year 3, then there's Baylor...).
5. Of the 6 coaches taking over a team with a 3 year prior composite ranking of 100 or below (and excluding Scott Drew)
Tournament Year 1: 0
Tournament Year 2: 0
Tournament Year 3: 2 (a 9 and a 12 seed)
Tournament Year 4: 6 (4, 5, 7, 8, and 10 Seeds, plus whatever MSU gets)
Note: This isn't meant to be a defense, a complaint or otherwise of the job
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