Bracketolgy
Illinois seems locked in at the 4-seed or 5-seed depending how they finish up. A win at Iowa probably gets them the 4-seed. A loss and they may need to win two games in the Big Ten Tournament. The Illini dropped to No. 16 in the NET and are 5-6 vs. Quad 1 opponents.
Illinois can make a deep run in the tournament, but it will depend on matchups. Here are some of the more common slottings:
* 4-seed in the West against 13-seed Samford. 1/2 round in Salt Lake City. Second round matchup vs. 5-seed BYU.
* 4-seed in the East vs. 13-seed UC Irvin. 1/2 round in Spokane, WA. Second round matchup vs. 5-seed South Carolina
* 4-seed in the South vs. 13-seed Louisiana Tech. 1/2 round in Pittsburgh. Second round matchup vs. 5-seed Auburn.
If I'm Illinois, I don't want to see Auburn in the second round.
Guard play bugaboo
Guard play could bite Illinois in the ass in the tournament. The importance is always enhanced in the post season. Right now, Underwood doesn't have much confidence in Ty Rodgers. If he's not rebounding, he doesn't give you much.
Marcus Domask is essentially the point guard. As we've seen, he can struggle vs. pressure from small, quicker guards. Justin Harmon has been great, but he's a small forward in a guard's body. Moretti won't see much action in the tournament unless its a blowout. Gibbs-Lawhorn is lost on the bench.
Illinois is 10th in the Big Ten in A/TO ratio (1.20). They are 13th in turnover margin (-19.3). Underwood says he doesn't care about forcing turnovers. That's an odd take, IMO, especially for a team that is great in transition and can turn TO's into points. How will it go if they run into a team that applies pressure?
Closing games
Illinois hasn't been able to close games against high level opponents. That can hurt them in the tournament as well. Once it becomes a possession game late against good teams, they aren't converting or getting stops.
Why? The defense isn't good. We know that. But I think it's also because they are too confident in the spread-motion offense and aren't always putting the ball in the hands of the best playmakers. Forced shots at the end of the shot clock are killers.
Illinois has one of the best and most efficient offenses in the nation. It's different late, though. Teams hunker down and it becomes a halfcourt game.
Underwood would put the ball in the hands of Ayo and he became the best closer in college basketball. I'm not sure why he won't run plays for Shannon and Domask. The ball does tend to find them, but why not run a set play so they aren't rushing things? The 3-point miss by Harmon against Purdue when it was 67-66 really hurt.
Another off-season of Portal action
Once again, the makeup of the 2024-25 team will depend on who Illinois can land in the Transfer Portal. Depending on who stays or who goes, they need a minimum of three from Portal.
Guard - they need a guard capable of being the primary ball handler. They love incoming freshman Jase Butler. You don't want to bank the season on a freshman, though. Moretti is not a starter at this level. DGL is a scorer who plays with his head down.
Wing - Illinois will shoot for the stars to get a scoring wing with size. Rodgers hasn't come close to developing his shot and you wonder if he's even a starter moving forward. If you have a couple of big shooters / scorers surrounding him (Shannon/Domask) he's okay. Luke Goode is strictly a spot up shooter. He can't score off the bounce and is not a good passer or defender. Sencire Harris is small-ish and has issues with ballhandling. Underwood doesn't want to roll out a small backcourt, so where does that leave DGL?
Face-up big - It's doubtful that you can play Morez Johnson and Dain Dainja together, at least not next year. I expect Johnson to start at the 4 and he's a traditional power forward at this point. That makes is a must to land a face-up big in the mold of Coleman Hawkins who can stretch the floor. Jason Jakstys can be that kind of player in time, but he won't be read as a freshman. Amani Hansberry is banger, scrapper and he's becoming a decent mid-range shooter. I don't see him extending that beyond the arc.
Potential Portal losses
With no limitations on transfers, everyone is in play every year. You just never know.
Spit-balling...
Gibb-Lawhorn has said all the right things. Still, there are people around him who are unhappy with his benching. He hasn't seen the light of day lately.
It's unusual for a true junior to go through senior day festivities like Luke Goode did. He has seemed like the least likely to transfer, but that raised some eyebrows.
It's hard to read Dain Dainja. He's not a happy-go-lucky guy by nature. Underwood has ridden him hard. Many people see him moving again. We'll see.
Would Moretti consider moving down to a lower level? It's unlikely that he'll be a starter in the Big Ten.
I don't think I've every seen a kid take a voluntary redshirt year like Sincere Harris. He also says the right things, but it would shock no one if he transfers.
Any questions?
Illinois seems locked in at the 4-seed or 5-seed depending how they finish up. A win at Iowa probably gets them the 4-seed. A loss and they may need to win two games in the Big Ten Tournament. The Illini dropped to No. 16 in the NET and are 5-6 vs. Quad 1 opponents.
Illinois can make a deep run in the tournament, but it will depend on matchups. Here are some of the more common slottings:
* 4-seed in the West against 13-seed Samford. 1/2 round in Salt Lake City. Second round matchup vs. 5-seed BYU.
* 4-seed in the East vs. 13-seed UC Irvin. 1/2 round in Spokane, WA. Second round matchup vs. 5-seed South Carolina
* 4-seed in the South vs. 13-seed Louisiana Tech. 1/2 round in Pittsburgh. Second round matchup vs. 5-seed Auburn.
If I'm Illinois, I don't want to see Auburn in the second round.
Guard play bugaboo
Guard play could bite Illinois in the ass in the tournament. The importance is always enhanced in the post season. Right now, Underwood doesn't have much confidence in Ty Rodgers. If he's not rebounding, he doesn't give you much.
Marcus Domask is essentially the point guard. As we've seen, he can struggle vs. pressure from small, quicker guards. Justin Harmon has been great, but he's a small forward in a guard's body. Moretti won't see much action in the tournament unless its a blowout. Gibbs-Lawhorn is lost on the bench.
Illinois is 10th in the Big Ten in A/TO ratio (1.20). They are 13th in turnover margin (-19.3). Underwood says he doesn't care about forcing turnovers. That's an odd take, IMO, especially for a team that is great in transition and can turn TO's into points. How will it go if they run into a team that applies pressure?
Closing games
Illinois hasn't been able to close games against high level opponents. That can hurt them in the tournament as well. Once it becomes a possession game late against good teams, they aren't converting or getting stops.
Why? The defense isn't good. We know that. But I think it's also because they are too confident in the spread-motion offense and aren't always putting the ball in the hands of the best playmakers. Forced shots at the end of the shot clock are killers.
Illinois has one of the best and most efficient offenses in the nation. It's different late, though. Teams hunker down and it becomes a halfcourt game.
Underwood would put the ball in the hands of Ayo and he became the best closer in college basketball. I'm not sure why he won't run plays for Shannon and Domask. The ball does tend to find them, but why not run a set play so they aren't rushing things? The 3-point miss by Harmon against Purdue when it was 67-66 really hurt.
Another off-season of Portal action
Once again, the makeup of the 2024-25 team will depend on who Illinois can land in the Transfer Portal. Depending on who stays or who goes, they need a minimum of three from Portal.
Guard - they need a guard capable of being the primary ball handler. They love incoming freshman Jase Butler. You don't want to bank the season on a freshman, though. Moretti is not a starter at this level. DGL is a scorer who plays with his head down.
Wing - Illinois will shoot for the stars to get a scoring wing with size. Rodgers hasn't come close to developing his shot and you wonder if he's even a starter moving forward. If you have a couple of big shooters / scorers surrounding him (Shannon/Domask) he's okay. Luke Goode is strictly a spot up shooter. He can't score off the bounce and is not a good passer or defender. Sencire Harris is small-ish and has issues with ballhandling. Underwood doesn't want to roll out a small backcourt, so where does that leave DGL?
Face-up big - It's doubtful that you can play Morez Johnson and Dain Dainja together, at least not next year. I expect Johnson to start at the 4 and he's a traditional power forward at this point. That makes is a must to land a face-up big in the mold of Coleman Hawkins who can stretch the floor. Jason Jakstys can be that kind of player in time, but he won't be read as a freshman. Amani Hansberry is banger, scrapper and he's becoming a decent mid-range shooter. I don't see him extending that beyond the arc.
Potential Portal losses
With no limitations on transfers, everyone is in play every year. You just never know.
Spit-balling...
Gibb-Lawhorn has said all the right things. Still, there are people around him who are unhappy with his benching. He hasn't seen the light of day lately.
It's unusual for a true junior to go through senior day festivities like Luke Goode did. He has seemed like the least likely to transfer, but that raised some eyebrows.
It's hard to read Dain Dainja. He's not a happy-go-lucky guy by nature. Underwood has ridden him hard. Many people see him moving again. We'll see.
Would Moretti consider moving down to a lower level? It's unlikely that he'll be a starter in the Big Ten.
I don't think I've every seen a kid take a voluntary redshirt year like Sincere Harris. He also says the right things, but it would shock no one if he transfers.
Any questions?
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