That is going to be a problem for MAGA since Trump will never be on the ballot again.
Forget it….
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That is going to be a problem for MAGA since Trump will never be on the ballot again.
TJ has a point that is sort of right and sort of not. Republicans probably aren't particularly more or less popular today than they were the 20 years prior to Trump (likely trailing Dems by a very small margin of maybe 2% in neutral conditions), but they've traded a high propensity coalition of largely successful people for a populist coalition of low propensity yahoos. Being that TJ is in both camps, it's harder for him to see the distinction than those who are in only one.
This may have some advantages in a Presidential election, especially when Trump is garnering PT Barnum-like attention, but it's a deep disadvantage in ALL of the other races not occurring on the first Tuesday (following a Monday) every 4 years and divisible by 4.
And it's also likely to be something of a disadvantage post-Trump, unless Vance/Trump Jr. prove to be as exciting as Trump Sr. As much as I detest Trump, he's frigging exciting, I will concede that. But if the successors can't bring out the circus voters, the political right has problems (until the Dems get in and muck things up as they like to do ... which will be a growing issue for Rs if Dems nominate someone like Josh Shapiro who won't spend four years sucking balls).
Separately, the next election is going to need to be won by Rs on accomplishment, no more Old Joe to drag the Dems down. I'm not impressed by Dems, but standing in the corner until late 2027 or so would be a brilliant tactical move!
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The Dems need another relative unknown like Obama to show up. Not establishment, progressive but not too progressive (allegedly), and a darling of the media and social media. The competition is going to be guys like Newsome, who would like that image but is too well known.
Much depends on how Trump is ending up. Economy is fine, world wars are fine, then R's got a good chance to cement a lasting coalition.
Josh Shapiro is a good example of who the R's should worry about but is he a national candidate in today's Dem party? If he is elected does all the irresponsible spending and graft come back? I really don't know much about him other than unlike our disgusting Dem AZ senator Mark Kelly, Shapiro may actually be a genuine person.
Much depends on how Trump is ending up. Economy is fine, world wars are fine, then R's got a good chance to cement a lasting coalition.
Josh Shapiro is a good example of who the R's should worry about but is he a national candidate in today's Dem party? If he is elected does all the irresponsible spending and graft come back? I really don't know much about him other than unlike our disgusting Dem AZ senator Mark Kelly, Shapiro may actually be a genuine person.
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I think Dem chances of nominating Shapiro are very high, probably 50% or so.
Republicans see the Dem activists in the media, at protests, on TV, and the sort, and don't realize the zealots have a very underwhelming history in Dem primaries. Hell ... two members of the squad were defeated handily in 2024 primaries (and there's only like 6 total, with one of the remaining 4 having ditched that moniker in recent years).
Wake me up next time MTG even comes close to losing a primary and I will know the GOP is getting it back together.
Not sure they can get by with standing in the corner. They have to keep the (R)s from accomplishing the 80/20 issues while at the same time getting on the right side of most of them. Luckily for such a strategy, voters do not demand intellectual consistency.
Standing in the corner is already paying massive dividends. See yesterday and Trump pulling the Stefanik nomination because he was (correctly) afraid about holding a R plus 20 district.
I agree with you that Dems need to fight their own activists, and most of their pols lack that courage (no different than the GOP pols when it came to Trump btw). But I think what the smart ones figure is that there's a good chance they will nominate someone like Shapiro, who is in no way beholden to the left, and it will defang the worst elements without a fight. Probably smart short term but less effective long term.
A cured Dem Party would banish the trans rights loons, embrace their neoliberal base, and mostly stand with suburban interests. Probably not what we are going to get up and down the ranks, but good chance we will get a nominee who reflects the latter two items.
I don't even know who would qualify as real Ds and real Rs anymore. There may be a few state/local people, but it seems to be a barbell distribution. Much of what you describe that the Ds have to fix is what I mean by getting on the right side of 80/20 issues. They need their various loons and activist judges to keep the current admin from succeeding then somehow switch it up (get back on the right side of issues) for 2026/28. Be fun to watch in a morbid sort of way.
Interesting.
www.theatlantic.com
The New Marriage of Unequals
Women are now more likely to marry a less-educated man than men are to marry a less-educated woman.
The half of the country that did not vote for Trump sees the judges that you label as activist as the last defenders of the Constitution against a rogue president.
I somehow find myself in the middle of this take and the take that these judges are rogue.
Some of their decisions are not guided by the law and simply by anti-Trump animus. Others are entirely valid checks against an Administration that is out of control on certain fronts.
One problem. Shapiro is Jewish. Does he support Israel? Non starter among many Dems. If he obfuscates the issue then they may look the other way but it probably will be a big thing
Yep, and the other half see them as enemies of the constitution, hence my description of a barbell distribution.
The Dems are leaning more towards disappearing as a Party as the far idiots of their Party embrace antisemitic leanings and their propensity towards taking the loser of 80 - 20 issues.
LOL. The accomplishments on the left are kind of humorous at this point. They now are capable of talking for 24 hours!!! Who cares if it is like listening to the late Tom Petty singing "Free Falling" over and over for 24 hours. This is considered some great accomplishment.
TDS 2.0 like I said.
The House retains their majority.
Check House seats about to be taken away from Blue States like Callie and switched to Red States as the US population shifts.
5 - 7 + seats could be the result.
Let's just say I disagree with Moses.
JD Vance may have just clinched the 2028 presidency last night thanks to voter ID passing in Wisconsin. Assuming a positive Trump presidency, JD was already at 262 EVs. Wisconsin puts him over the top.
What has been forgotten is Trump is exporting the Democrats future to El Salvador tariff free. These lunatics have rejected every reasonable candidate for decades. Bernie is the nominee in 2016 and 2020 if not for interference in the nomination process. They anointed Cackles.
Josh Shapiro is a lunatic who defends all sorts of absurd positions. Being reasonable on a couple makes him repulsive to party regulars like Jeff - who will for JD in 2028 once Trump is gone - or so he claims.
Begs the question on which sex is more educated and what is the value and cost of their respective education ?Interesting.
The New Marriage of Unequals
Women are now more likely to marry a less-educated man than men are to marry a less-educated woman.
Mary Anne had a new patient last fall/winter who had just started teaching at West Point.
The subject ?
DEI !
GAWN
They have always been criminals
I am not sure of your point. Most anticipated the 4 outcomes. The right won 3 of the 4. The left lit a stack of cash on fire in Florida just to say, "see how close it was as we lost". This reminds me of Beto here in Texas. How many elections did we watch him literally light 10's of millions of leftwing dollars on fire just to lose "closer than it should be"?
I read some of your other posts and will respond here
I am not as optimistic as you are on the left moving to the center. Shapiro will either have to ride some very losing issues to the nomination and then change positions or will watch from the sidelines again. For the most part, I believe the left stopped seeing jewish/ white males as minorities they would heavily support. You could be right here, but I doubt they are ready to give up most of their lunacy to elect a candidate like Shapiro.
I don't totally disagree with your GOP takes. Trump will need to have some serious wins twelve months from now to not totally lose the midterms. Can he get there?? Anybody's guess, but I will enjoy watching Jeff and Stoney flail away over every media freak out. To be fair, Stoney is actually better about it and mostly calm. I think he is more used to the Trump freak-outs and it is more new to Jeff. That is just a guess, tho😜
Btw, I am glad you wasted your time on us know-nothings here. Other than your inability to hide your Trump hate, I enjoy reading your thoughts even if we don't agree.
I am see signs that the Democrats are starting to self correct on trans rights and immigration. These are the two biggest issues causing problems for the party.
If the DOGE cuts are paired with the Trump tax cuts for everyone, it could be a possible problem for MAGA. If enough people are negatively impacted by the spending cuts, they will not be happy seeing that money being used for tax cuts for the top 1%. We will see how it plays out.
Democratic activists hate Israel. 100%.
Democratic primary voters are not general activists, maybe only 10% or so them would qualify here. Black voters, union Dems, and suburban moderates either give Israel no thought or lean towards support it (but not without conditions).
I keep hearing Dems won't nominate a Jew. Possible, in which case I suspect the nominee will be Whitmer. But I think they will select the more centrist Jewish guy over the more Biden-esque Whitmer (who tends to find the center of the Dem Party, rather than shading towards the center of the country).
Climate Alarmists will blame the rise of the Rio Grand River from the melting of the ice cap along the Callie, Zona, New Mex and Texass borders !
That has scared and lowered the successful attempts to swim or walk across the water !
I am not sure of your point. Most anticipated the 4 outcomes. The right won 3 of the 4. The left lit a stack of cash on fire in Florida just to say, "see how close it was as we lost". This reminds me of Beto here in Texas. How many elections did we watch him literally light 10's of millions of leftwing dollars on fire just to lose "closer than it should be"?
I read some of your other posts and will respond here
I am not as optimistic as you are on the left moving to the center. Shapiro will either have to ride some very losing issues to the nomination and then change positions or will watch from the sidelines again. For the most part, I believe the left stopped seeing jewish/ white males as minorities they would heavily support. You could be right here, but I doubt they are ready to give up most of their lunacy to elect a candidate like Shapiro.
I don't totally disagree with your GOP takes. Trump will need to have some serious wins twelve months from now to not totally lose the midterms. Can he get there?? Anybody's guess, but I will enjoy watching Jeff and Stoney flail away over every media freak out. To be fair, Stoney is actually better about it and mostly calm. I think he is more used to the Trump freak-outs and it is more new to Jeff. That is just a guess, tho😜
Btw, I am glad you wasted your time on us know-nothings here. Other than your inability to hide your Trump hate, I enjoy reading your thoughts even if we don't agree.
Oh ... I hate Trump. I'm not going to try to hide it. Weirdly, I think he's done OK the last month in Ukraine, mostly because even he recognizes that it's Putin that is the biggest impediment to peace. WHO COULDA THUNK IT???!!!
I'm not sure what the "4 elections" were. There were 2 House races in Florida, both won by Rs. There was the Wisconsin judicial race, won by the Dem-affiliated candidate. Those were the 3 I know about. There was also some Wisconsin "education commissioner" nonsense race that Dems won, less impressively than the judicial race but not super close. I think Voter ID passed in Wisconsin - the only people who don't think Voter ID is popular are loony lefties.
But I do want to talk about Florida, because we have to look at relative performances. Trump won both districts by like 35 plus (so winning them by around 15% is actually bad). I thought the GOP performance in Florida-6 was fine. Got really outspent, the electorate was Dem heavy relative to any normal election.
However, the election in Florida-1 was terrible. Rs have a better candidate than Gaetz, don't think they got wildly outspent, and the partisan composition of the electorate pointed to a GOP victory of at least 25%, maybe a bit more. Instead they won by 15%, because Dems likely won a huge number of independent voters and even some mad Republicans. That's a really bad sign for the GOP, arguably worse than the Wisconsin judicial race which also saw a lot of Dem persuastion.
Rs are relying on "Trump entertainment voters" to get above the 44-45% or so floor they have. Pretty populist but apolitical group. When the party can't get those characters out and alienates the people who dislike both parties, the GOP is gonna get smoked. It might be until 2029 before Republicans are able to reverse where they currently are, but since I probably hate Vance more than I hate Trump, maybe I'm too biased to think he stands a good chance of actually exciting the WWE Trumpers (in which case 2028 should be competitive at least).
And a Heck of a college football coach !
The DG build-up continues: more B-2, B-52's, additional transports and refueling planes and P-3 for Sub detection AND ELINT detection !
NO idea what happened ?
I don't think there's almost any chance Dems nominate a member of The Squad. Heck, most of them (not the Crockett lady) have calmed down due to the nature of the party apparatus that actually does a decent job of promoting a united front.
Make your predictions on Liberation Day! I think short term pain for some nice long term gains. I think Jeff and the stonedax see armageddon, but they can correct me here
The Big 4 Wins proves "the people" are on his side !
Popular vote for President.
Electoral College overwhelming numbers.
Senate Majority.
House Majority.
The 4 contests I was referring to included voter ID.
I hang out with a lot of educated women that love JD Vance and like him better than Trump by quite a bit. I am guessing he will outperform Trump in that sector. If you are being honest, you mostly tie him to Trump and hate that he is loyal to your enemy. He is very polished, likable and intelligent. He is also a great debater that comes off as likable as he wins the moment. That is a pretty great quality. His future is staked tot Trump's success. If Trump has success, the woman vote that eluded Trump will like Vance.
The left is currently staking themselves to some pretty ugly positions that will be hard to run from in the GE.
Vance's approvals lag Trump's by a decent margin. Already. His FP views are Tucker Carlson-induced batshittery. And I don't think the average person finds him likeable in the least, people who are GOP partisans probably do.
He is very smart. He's also an obvious fraud. I always wonder about people that can't spot frauds, but at this point of my life I've stopped feeling bad for them. They deserve the result.
NBC News poll: VP Vance lags behind Trump in favorability ratings two months into office
A new poll from NBC News is revealing how the American public feel about Vice President JD Vance after almost two months in office as the nation's second in command.
www.wlwt.com
Remember when the Dem leadership had to all rally( and pull some behind the scenes crap) for Joetato so that Bernie didn't win the primary? Let's not forget, it was not that long ago that Dem primary came an eyelash from making a communist their GE nominee.
Most post WordSalad/ Walz losing the GE comments from leftwing leadership indicates few lessons were learned.
As of 1:38 PM, Eastern Time, EVERY Markets Indicator is UP !
DOW, S & P 500, ET AL.
Tariff Day !
But I had cleaned out my option holdings to ELIMINATE any losses...........or any gains.
TESLA is UP 13 - 14 Points to 282 +/- !
Or
Approx 60 points UP since TT started following the price on his phone !
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In your great ability to spot frauds, you labeled WordSalad as very bright on here. She was an empty suit that couldn't handle softball questions. I mean Walz was not very bright, but I thought he could handle himself better than his fraud running mate. When she shook her head, I could hear the BB rattle.Vance's approvals lag Trump's by a decent margin. Already. His FP views are Tucker Carlson-induced batshittery. And I don't think the average person finds him likeable in the least, people who are GOP partisans probably do.
He is very smart. He's also an obvious fraud. I always wonder about people that can't spot frauds, but at this point of my life I've stopped feeling bad for them. They deserve the result.
NBC News poll: VP Vance lags behind Trump in favorability ratings two months into office
A new poll from NBC News is revealing how the American public feel about Vice President JD Vance after almost two months in office as the nation's second in command.
With near 100% Name ID, Bernie won the following % in Super Tuesday 2020 states (the party didn't save Joe, it simply made the race a 1v1 between the normies and the left) - 17%, 11%, 22%, 36%, 37%, 32%, 26%, 30%, 24%, 25%, 25%, 30%, 36%, 50% (Vermont, home state), and 23%.
So basically, after a 5 year campaign, Bernie captured about 27-30% of Dem primary voters.
No one on the left today can run a 5-year campaign AND I suspect the party's voting base is considerably more normie/moderate come 2028 than 2020, thanks be to Trump on several levels (both desire to win and the type of voter he's pushed to Dems).
Pretty sure I simply said she's "not an idiot" despite the caricature made of her on the right. You should perhaps not create arguments that are figments of your imagination if you want to engage. (My view of Tim Walz is exceedingly low btw, he does seem completely underwhelming.)
The best argument against Harris is that she's nothing more than a left-oriented, political climber hack (Slick Willie) who lacked an ability to express a position outside the party's standard positioning at a given moment. That's hard to do if you are legit dumb. I actually think she ran close to the best campaign she could, with the caveat in retrospect she should have argued that Biden failed on a bunch of stuff and she wasn't "going back" (lol to that slogan) to the Ancient Mariner either. Not sure Dems were ready for that tho.
Glad you are doing better btw, that was good to see.
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