Forget it….
- Thread starter bung23
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Unless he reverses course, it will be the inflation caused by the tariffs that crash the economy. Tax cuts to upper brackets won't offset the inflation paid by the great number of taxpayers. Same for deregulation.
Reducing government spending has a negative impact on growth. The coming tax cuts are replacing the current tax cuts so they will not be stimulative. Tariffs are inflationary so if they are in place for any length of time they will hurt the economy as well.
The yield curve has inverted again which has been a pretty good indicator of a recession.
IMO, a recession is more likely than not.
You will note Stone is not fleeing his Florida home. Why not?
Facts are facts, people are going to Texas, Florida, and Arizona. Once remote outposts like San Tan Valley and Maricopa (both in Arizona) have become the places that youngsters can barely afford to buy a home. Both are distant from downtown Phoenix and a horrid commute. Everything closer is significantly greater.
As for lovely California, I had a buddy who bought a home in Solana Beach for 399k in '99 ("I couldn't afford it then"). Recently, Zillow shows it at 2.8M - it was 1.6M on Zillow three short years ago. Granted, the house which isn't much is 1/2 mile from the beach. California is a housing nightmare - hence the growth in Arizona.
Our newest out of the closet flaming liberal is choosing to flee Illinois and go to Florida of all places. Didn't he see the list of true paradise?
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Reducing government spending is exactly what you want - yet rail against. Quite odd and only explained by the scrambled state of your mind.
The tax cuts must be renewed. If not, that will be a drag on the economy.
Have you sold everything yet? Better yet, hopefully you sold 2 weeks ago when you warned us all!
The yield curve has been inverted for something like 2 1/2 years now.
OT-Non Politics 
. Many years ago a young woman named Natalie Holloway dominated news and particularly cable news when she disappeared in Aruba (I think). The body was never found, the local authorities shielded the probable murder, etc. The guy eventually got in trouble for other things and maybe even this event was eventually pinned on him. It was a long time ago. Date rape drugs were also suspected.
Anyway, we may have another, the news media certainly is ramping up coverage. A 20 yr old woman went to a Riu resort in the Dominican Republic (they are all over Mexico and the Carribbean) with 5 girl friends for Spring break partying. 4-5 nights ago the women met some men to socialize. At about 4am they were walking on the beach and everyone except the 20 yr old and a man went back to the hotel. The man eventually left the beach and details are still emerging. I think his story is they went swimming and she drowned but the family is not buying it. Apparently her body is missing if she did drown.
Fathers (and Mothers) what good can come from letting your daughter hang out with a stranger on a beach at 4am? Why did her friends think it was OK to leave her? SMH
. Many years ago a young woman named Natalie Holloway dominated news and particularly cable news when she disappeared in Aruba (I think). The body was never found, the local authorities shielded the probable murder, etc. The guy eventually got in trouble for other things and maybe even this event was eventually pinned on him. It was a long time ago. Date rape drugs were also suspected.Anyway, we may have another, the news media certainly is ramping up coverage. A 20 yr old woman went to a Riu resort in the Dominican Republic (they are all over Mexico and the Carribbean) with 5 girl friends for Spring break partying. 4-5 nights ago the women met some men to socialize. At about 4am they were walking on the beach and everyone except the 20 yr old and a man went back to the hotel. The man eventually left the beach and details are still emerging. I think his story is they went swimming and she drowned but the family is not buying it. Apparently her body is missing if she did drown.
Fathers (and Mothers) what good can come from letting your daughter hang out with a stranger on a beach at 4am? Why did her friends think it was OK to leave her? SMH
'Exhaustive' search for missing student presses on in Dominican Republic
Sudiksha Konanki, 20, was last seen before dawn Thursday while walking on a beach in the Dominican Republic resort town of Punta Cana.
www.usatoday.com
I will never return to the DR. Eight years ago, we were there for a wedding. Our driver slammed on the brakes as these little mopeds were weaving in and out of cars everywhere. My wife had a gash on her forehead was the result. The conditions at their hospital were unbelievably unsanitary. There was an armed security guard there to be sure you paid your bill. We couldn't get off of that island quick enough. The poverty there makes that island terribly dangerous.OT-Non Politics
Anyway, we may have another, the news media certainly is ramping up coverage. A 20 yr old woman went to a Riu resort in the Dominican Republic (they are all over Mexico and the Carribbean) with 5 girl friends for Spring break partying. 4-5 nights ago the women met some men to socialize. At about 4am they were walking on the beach and everyone except the 20 yr old and a man went back to the hotel. The man eventually left the beach and details are still emerging. I think his story is they went swimming and she drowned but the family is not buying it. Apparently her body is missing if she did drown.
Fathers (and Mothers) what good can come from letting your daughter hang out with a stranger on a beach at 4am? Why did her friends think it was OK to leave her? SMH
'Exhaustive' search for missing student presses on in Dominican Republic
Sudiksha Konanki, 20, was last seen before dawn Thursday while walking on a beach in the Dominican Republic resort town of Punta Cana.www.usatoday.com
A guy I know took his gf there to get engaged. The first night they were there, they were drugged at the resort bar and a bunch of hotel employees came to their room and assaulted his gf. He posted this experience on Facebook and you would not believe the number of people that posted a similar experience in the DR or Mexico.
Pay a bit more and go to Grand Cayman or stay home and go to the Keys.
A simplistic statement which is mostly false in the current era of huge government debt.
Stabilizing the federal debt would lower interest rates, increase GDP, and raise wages.
Actually, I think about it a lot. I have family and work that ties me here or I would leave before summer. Probably back to Illinois if I left.
I would do it if I were you. Illinois is on a real roll!
Anybody notice the party of decorum that was offended by Trump are now cursing and vandalizing their way to record low polling numbers?
Illinois isn't bad if you're already retired. I came back 3.5 years ago to spend time with and help look after my dad. But I do spend my summers primarily up in NE Minnesota in a fairly remote area, which helps. All that said, once I don't have a reason to be here in Illinois, I don't think I'll stay.
I did hear them once last summer. There was a fire close to a nearby lake and that night they were pretty agitated, but they're usually quiet. I see them frequently enough--just lone animals along the highway into town or on the little road out to my place. No sauna though--it's in the plan but with a number of things ahead of it.
Last time I was up there(many years back) I stayed a friends place, a farmstead/homestead built by the Swedish or Norwegian immigrants that settled the site and had the old sauna sitting on the edge of the pond. A lot of wolves howling at night( may have been wolf dogs)
This looks like you posted from the uncoach X algorithm echochamber. BTW, I dig the new pill counting avatar!
Yes. Stone should move to Illinois.
Don’t buy the Canadian malarkey.
48 is good, are you sure? Florida is 2d next to California in people moving out of state. It is offset by those moving in which shows that those already here aren't happy with the state, those up north can't wait to move to "paradise". Also mostly younger folks moving out, old retirees moving in.
Fascinating! Try to convince your family to leave that MAGA hellhole for greener pastures in Illinois that won't be submerged by "Climate Change".
A valiant effort to be sure. Why aren't the old retirees moving to California creating a net gain for California? After all, nature wise it has everything Florida has and much more.
Florida is a very attractive state from an "I want to live there" perspective. It was that way 35 years ago and remains so today. 35 years ago, the same could be said for California.
While still very attractive, the logistics for living a life or running a business in California have been superseded by Austin, TX. Now, I've been to Austin, I'm not a fan. California or Florida are both superior when one excludes all political considerations
The federal debt won't be stabilized by the amount of Trump cuts. Tariffs will lower GDP by increasing inflation and consumers will be the ones who will pay. The only way to stabilize federal debt is through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases which will likely cause a recession.
Canada will fight the trade war by...wait for it, buying US advertising. Smart.
Isn’t this the dipstick who tried to ruin the US with ESG?
I am rethinking being on Hoffman’s platform.
Going back to this. How does someone who can’t read graduate with honors? What the heck is wrong with our schools? We have some nutjob politicians in Illinois trying to go after all of the homeschoolers now all because of one family wasn’t educating their kids. This is what happens when a bankrupt state advertises to hire the fired federal workers. I think Vivek is the right person to replace DeWine.
A tariff is a tax increase, that in my admittedly simpleminded way of thinking isn't all that different than corporate and business taxes in its net effect to everyday consumers. And I don't see a lot of difference to an everyday consumer between having to pay more in the grocery store or pay more before a paycheck even hits their pocket. Tariffs do work for one thing, and that is why Canada, for example, has such high tariffs on certain goods (agricultural products and manufactured items are the ones I'm aware of) as well as de facto import quotas--they create a better market for subject domestic production and bolsters their GDP.
So that would lead me to conclude that someone who is against tariffs in principal would also be against corporate and business taxes based on the same principals, and thereby in protecting them from tax-driven inflation, putting the entire burden on individual taxpayers. To be fair, that's where it always comes to roost anyway, either through passed-through costs of various taxes (and passed-through regulatory burden) or direct taxation. Seizing the entire net worth of every millionaire and billionaire (not just people with that much taxable income on an ongoing basis) in the country would just about pay off the debt, but where would that leave the economy?
It's a helluva problem. The only real solution I can see is a combined approach of truly reining in spending and simultaneously growing the size of the pie. A personal finance analogy would be lowering household spending and picking up a second job. Just going to your boss and demanding a bigger slice of his pie really isn't going to work. Entitlements is indeed a thorny issue, and I don't think it's right to stiff people after collecting payroll taxes from them for decades. And that's an area where we'll probably have to phase in changes on both the incoming and outgoing side of the ledger.
And maybe after all that it will still be necessary to meaningfully increase taxes to survive the debt. But I think there need to be several serious and irrevocable guarantees made to taxpayers. First that the additional taxes will be accounted separately, applied only to the national debt, and instantly and permanently revoked the day some meaningful threshold regarding the debt is reached. Second, the government must very openly demonstrate to the people that they've sharpened their pencils and made every belt-tightening move they can possibly make (to the point it starts causing a little pain) in order to minimize the overall burden to taxpayers. Third, a mandatory commitment that the government will work continually to reduce costs going forward. Of course I roll my eyes as I type that. Just gauging the reaction of people to DOGE's efforts tell me that at least half the country and at least half the politicians in the country aren't interested in really addressing the issue, but rather are only interested in cultivating their personal and ideological animosity.
As far as tariffs, I'd be happy with a very reciprocal system, and preferably one that's as low as possible. I could see a uniform/bidirectional across-the-board tariff of at most maybe 5%, basically whatever it takes to offset the cost of maintaining a customs system. Ultimately that's what the administration is trying to achieve on the economic front, I believe. Truly reciprocal tariff structures, be they 0% or 250%, gives the US economy, and thereby its revenue base, the most level playing field and best chance of growing. I really don't like the administration's tack of intertwining tariffs with our neighbors and fentanyl, especially as pertains to Canada, but the pocket book is a big motivator.
Not a fan whatsoever of Trump going after MAssie, the most America first politician in the entire country.
You can't kill OVER 100 million egg laying chickens and not affect daily pricing.
Nor can you raise the price of Gas/Diesel OVER 100 % over 4 years to deliver eggs to the egg markets !
Without prices rising !
As you posters have read in my posts about eggs/chickens you MUST have breeds that are specifically egg layers.
If you want chicken cutlets or other chicken meat products, then you must have DIFFERENT breeds of meat birds.
If those 2 options are what you want, egg layers take OVER twice as long to get an egg. You want a meat chicken, it can be easily done in an average back yard in 7-8 weeks !
Better weather, longer daylight and we are gathering daily enough eggs for the boys to go about the neighbors and sell surplus eggs by the dozen ! No price increase from last years $ 5.00 a dozen ! (They are getting a few bucks for tips, here and there.)
We spent the huge sum of $ 30 dollars for 15 more egg layer chicks this winter. By this summer that will about double our egg production.
See Joel Salatin's you tubes ! He easily shows how chicken Layers, Meat, Stew (old layers), Pigs, Cattle, Sheep, Rabbits. All can be done to profits by rotating the animals over the SAME pasture.
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Yep. That is a mistake on Trump’s part. It’s a way to lose some Kentucky voters, as well.
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