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Forget it….

If there is a recession, the primary cause will be the prolonged period of inflation.

No one knows yet what the net effect of the policy changes will be, including the Fed chairman who commented on it last week.

IMO, the coming tax cuts and deregulation will offset any negative impact of tariffs and the economy will be fine.
Unless he reverses course, it will be the inflation caused by the tariffs that crash the economy. Tax cuts to upper brackets won't offset the inflation paid by the great number of taxpayers. Same for deregulation.
 
If there is a recession, the primary cause will be the prolonged period of inflation.

No one knows yet what the net effect of the policy changes will be, including the Fed chairman who commented on it last week.

IMO, the coming tax cuts and deregulation will offset any negative impact of tariffs and the economy will be fine.

Reducing government spending has a negative impact on growth. The coming tax cuts are replacing the current tax cuts so they will not be stimulative. Tariffs are inflationary so if they are in place for any length of time they will hurt the economy as well.

The yield curve has inverted again which has been a pretty good indicator of a recession.

IMO, a recession is more likely than not.
 
Let me know what that has to do with economy. Florida is gaining population. Also more importantly, RDS the Governor, not the mayor. Also, let me know when "South Florida" is a city.
You will note Stone is not fleeing is Florida home. Why not?

Facts are facts, people are going to Texas, Florida, and Arizona. Once remote outposts like San Tan Valley and Maricopa (both in Arizona) have become the places that youngsters can barely afford to buy a home. Both are distant from downtown Phoenix and a horrid commute. Everything closer is significantly greater.

As for lovely California, I had a buddy who bought a home in Solana Beach for 399k in '99 ("I couldn't afford it then"). Recently, Zillow shows it at 2.8M - it was 1.6M on Zillow three short years ago. Granted, the house which isn't much is 1/2 mile from the beach. California is a housing nightmare - hence the growth in Arizona.

Our newest out of the closet flaming liberal is choosing to flee Illinois and go to Florida of all places. Didn't he see the list of true paradise?
 
Reducing government spending has a negative impact on growth. The coming tax cuts are replacing the current tax cuts so they will not be stimulative. Tariffs are inflationary so if they are in place for any length of time they will hurt the economy as well.

The yield curve has inverted again which has been a pretty good indicator of a recession.

IMO, a recession is more likely than not.
Reducing government spending is exactly what you want - yet rail against. Quite odd and only explained by the scrambled state of your mind.

The tax cuts must be renewed. If not, that will be a drag on the economy.

Have you sold everything yet? Better yet, hopefully you sold 2 weeks ago when you warned us all!
 
You should have listened to the Bessent interview I linked yesterday. It's also pathetic you Trump so much that you root against the American economy just to prove yourself right.
I don’t want a recession but I believe one is coming.
 
Reducing government spending is exactly what you want - yet rail against. Quite odd and only explained by the scrambled state of your mind.

The tax cuts must be renewed. If not, that will be a drag on the economy.

Have you sold everything yet? Better yet, hopefully you sold 2 weeks ago when you warned us all!
Yes, I did adjust my portfolio two weeks ago.
 
Reducing government spending has a negative impact on growth. The coming tax cuts are replacing the current tax cuts so they will not be stimulative. Tariffs are inflationary so if they are in place for any length of time they will hurt the economy as well.

The yield curve has inverted again which has been a pretty good indicator of a recession.

IMO, a recession is more likely than not.
The yield curve has been inverted for something like 2 1/2 years now.
 
OT-Non Politics :). Many years ago a young woman named Natalie Holloway dominated news and particularly cable news when she disappeared in Aruba (I think). The body was never found, the local authorities shielded the probable murder, etc. The guy eventually got in trouble for other things and maybe even this event was eventually pinned on him. It was a long time ago. Date rape drugs were also suspected.

Anyway, we may have another, the news media certainly is ramping up coverage. A 20 yr old woman went to a Riu resort in the Dominican Republic (they are all over Mexico and the Carribbean) with 5 girl friends for Spring break partying. 4-5 nights ago the women met some men to socialize. At about 4am they were walking on the beach and everyone except the 20 yr old and a man went back to the hotel. The man eventually left the beach and details are still emerging. I think his story is they went swimming and she drowned but the family is not buying it. Apparently her body is missing if she did drown.

Fathers (and Mothers) what good can come from letting your daughter hang out with a stranger on a beach at 4am? Why did her friends think it was OK to leave her? SMH

 
OT-Non Politics :). Many years ago a young woman named Natalie Holloway dominated news and particularly cable news when she disappeared in Aruba (I think). The body was never found, the local authorities shielded the probable murder, etc. The guy eventually got in trouble for other things and maybe even this event was eventually pinned on him. It was a long time ago. Date rape drugs were also suspected.

Anyway, we may have another, the news media certainly is ramping up coverage. A 20 yr old woman went to a Riu resort in the Dominican Republic (they are all over Mexico and the Carribbean) with 5 girl friends for Spring break partying. 4-5 nights ago the women met some men to socialize. At about 4am they were walking on the beach and everyone except the 20 yr old and a man went back to the hotel. The man eventually left the beach and details are still emerging. I think his story is they went swimming and she drowned but the family is not buying it. Apparently her body is missing if she did drown.

Fathers (and Mothers) what good can come from letting your daughter hang out with a stranger on a beach at 4am? Why did her friends think it was OK to leave her? SMH

I will never return to the DR. Eight years ago, we were there for a wedding. Our driver slammed on the brakes as these little mopeds were weaving in and out of cars everywhere. My wife had a gash on her forehead was the result. The conditions at their hospital were unbelievably unsanitary. There was an armed security guard there to be sure you paid your bill. We couldn't get off of that island quick enough. The poverty there makes that island terribly dangerous.

A guy I know took his gf there to get engaged. The first night they were there, they were drugged at the resort bar and a bunch of hotel employees came to their room and assaulted his gf. He posted this experience on Facebook and you would not believe the number of people that posted a similar experience in the DR or Mexico.

Pay a bit more and go to Grand Cayman or stay home and go to the Keys.
 
Anybody notice the party of decorum that was offended by Trump are now cursing and vandalizing their way to record low polling numbers?
 
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I would do it if I were you. Illinois is on a real roll!
Illinois isn't bad if you're already retired. I came back 3.5 years ago to spend time with and help look after my dad. But I do spend my summers primarily up in NE Minnesota in a fairly remote area, which helps. All that said, once I don't have a reason to be here in Illinois, I don't think I'll stay.
 
Illinois isn't bad if you're already retired. I came back 3.5 years ago to spend time with and help look after my dad. But I do spend my summers primarily up in NE Minnesota in a fairly remote area, which helps. All that said, once I don't have a reason to be here in Illinois, I don't think I'll stay.
You are listening to the wolves howl! Sauna on the property?
 
You are listening to the wolves howl! Sauna on the property?
I did hear them once last summer. There was a fire close to a nearby lake and that night they were pretty agitated, but they're usually quiet. I see them frequently enough--just lone animals along the highway into town or on the little road out to my place. No sauna though--it's in the plan but with a number of things ahead of it.
 
I did hear them once last summer. There was a fire close to a nearby lake and that night they were pretty agitated, but they're usually quiet. I see them frequently enough--just lone animals along the highway into town or on the little road out to my place. No sauna though--it's in the plan but with a number of things ahead of it.
Last time I was up there(many years back) I stayed a friends place, a farmstead/homestead built by the Swedish or Norwegian immigrants that settled the site and had the old sauna sitting on the edge of the pond. A lot of wolves howling at night( may have been wolf dogs)
 
Yes. Stone should move to Illinois.

48 is good, are you sure? Florida is 2d next to California in people moving out of state. It is offset by those moving in which shows that those already here aren't happy with the state, those up north can't wait to move to "paradise". Also mostly younger folks moving out, old retirees moving in.
 
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