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My goal this year is 25+ wins

Hasn’t happened since 2006, which was the last of 6 consecutive seasons with 25+ wins.

The COVID-shortened season and the early out capped us at 24 wins in 2021.

We’re already halfway there sitting at 13-4.

If we go 14-6 in conference that gets us to 23. Then you just need 2+ wins in postseason play. I’d prefer NCAA wins to BTT wins but they both count in the total. We should be favored to win that many.

I think this is a threshold we can hit with regularity in the coming years but this would be a good start.

National Championship Contenders (2024)

Since the "Dirty Dozen" is not around, let's try to make a list of national championship contenders in this thread. I'm going to propose certain traits that a national champion must have:

1. Top 8 seed
2. Top 40 defense in KenPom
3. Don't ever lose by more than 20
4. Don't lose in first round of conference tournament
5. Shoot over 34.5% from 3

I'm dropping the "coach with Final Four experience" because that's what filtered out UConn last year and I should have kept them in.

I'll stick with Bracketmatrix for now for seeding:

First two criteria:
UConn
Purdue
Houston
UNC
Tenn
Arizona
Marquette
Iowa State
Creighton
Duke
Kansas
Auburn
San Diego State
Wisconsin (maybe)
St. Mary's
Nevada
Wash St.
Boise St.
Nebraska

Now let's check losing by 20 or in the first round of conf. tournament
UConn
Purdue
UNC
Arizona
Iowa State
Auburn
San Diego State

Now let's check the 3-point shooting %
UConn
Purdue
UNC
Arizona
Iowa State
Auburn

That leaves 6 real title contenders. Even though I'm not using the "coach with Final Four experience" criterion, let's check it anyway:
UConn
Auburn

Not sure my title contenders will shock anyone but if you want to make a dark horse pick then Arizona, Iowa State, and Auburn are lurking outside the 1-seed line.

Bracket predictions

Going to try to work this all out.

Now let's assume that the Top 16 are set in stone now. Illinois and Auburn are the only two playing tomorrow. Auburn beating Florida won't do much for them and our game won't be over in time. Even though Lunardi thought we lost today in his previous update, his current one seems pretty reasonable for an S-curve. (I added the locations myself.)

1. UConn - Brooklyn
2. Purdue - Indianapolis
3. Houston - Memphis
4. North Carolina - Charlotte
5. Tennessee - Charlotte
6. Arizona - Salt Lake City
7. Iowa State - Omaha
8. Marquette - Indianapolis
9. Baylor - Memphis
10. Illinois - Pittsburgh
11. Creighton - Salt Lake City
12. Auburn - Pittsburgh
13. Duke - Brooklyn
14. Kansas - Omaha
15. Alabama - Spokane
16. Kentucky - Spokane

Key rule is that the first four teams from each conference have to go in different regions if they are in the Top 16.
Big East - UConn (1), Marquette (2), Creighton (3)
Big Ten - Purdue (1), Illinois (3)
Big 12 - Houston (1), Iowa State (2), Baylor (3), Kansas (4)
ACC - UNC (1), Duke (4)
SEC - Tenn (2), Auburn (3), Alabama (4), Kentucky (4)

Natural order is
EAST
1 - UConn (BE)
8 - Marquette (BE)
9 - Baylor (B12)
16 - Kentucky (SEC)

MIDWEST
2 - Purdue (B10)
7 - Iowa State (B12)
10 - Illinois (B10)
15 - Alabama (SEC)

SOUTH
3 - Houston (B12)
6 - Arizona (P12)
11 - Creighton (BE)
14 - Kansas (B12)

WEST
4 - UNC (ACC)
5 - Tenn (SEC)
12 - Auburn (SEC)
13 - Duke (ACC)


I have to resolve 5 conflicts (in bold): First I'll swap Iowa State and Marquette on the 2 seed line. Then I'll swap Baylor and Illinois on the 3 seed line. Then I'll swap Creighton and Auburn on the 3 seed line. Finally, I can swap Duke and Kansas on the 4 line. So that keeps everything good in terms of conferences and overall region difficulty. So my prediction is that Illinois will be the 3 seed in the East and will play in Pittsburgh.

EAST (34 points)
1 - UConn (BE)
7 - Iowa State (B12)
10 - Illinois (B10)
16 - Kentucky (SEC)

MIDWEST (34 points)
2 - Purdue (B10)
8 - Marquette (BE)
9 - Baylor (B12)
15 - Alabama (SEC)

SOUTH (34 points)
3 - Houston (B12)
6 - Arizona (P12)
12 - Auburn (SEC)
13 - Duke (ACC)

WEST (34 points)
4 - UNC (ACC)
5 - Tenn (SEC)
11 - Creighton (BE)
14 - Kansas (B12)

Now let's figure out our possible opponents. We should play a natural 14 seed but that may get complicated. Here are the teams in play along with their natural seeds.

Yale (13)
Samford (13)
Vermont (13)
College of Charleston (13)
Akron (14)
Oakland (14)
Morehead State (14)
Colgate (14)
Western Kentucky (15)
Long Beach State (15)
South Dakota State (15)
Longwood (15)

To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round. If possible, rematches of non-conference regular-season games should be avoided in the First Four and first round. As a secondary consideration, the committee will attempt to avoid potential rematches from non-conference regular-season games in the second round. The committee will not consider moving teams up or down its true seed line to avoid non-conference rematches.

We're about 486 miles from Pittsburgh so we can't play a team in the first round that's closer than that. If we end up in Omaha this all goes out the window. Teams closer to Pittsburgh than us in that list are:
Yale, Akron, Oakland, Morehead State, Colgate, Longwood
Teams farther away are:
Samford, Vermont, College of Charleston, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, South Dakota State

None of the BracketMatrix 14 seeds work for us. Two are rematches and two are substantially closer to Pittsburgh. I'd say that maybe Akron's win today gets them bumped up to the 13 line and College of Charleston slides down. So my prediction is College of Charleston will be our first opponent.

The other question would be what 6 seeds and 11 seeds might we see (KenPom ratings added). 6 seeds are Texas Tech (26), Utah State (48), St. Mary's (20), and Clemson (34). 11 seeds are New Mexico (24), Oregon (59), St. John's (27), NC State (57), Drake (51), and James Madison (58). I don't see any reason to pick one of these teams over the other. What is notable is that KenPom ratings range from 20-59 (kind of a big difference!) I won't make a prediction but I will say that my preference is to avoid the 6-11 bracket that includes play-in teams.

Let's see how I do.
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NCAA seeding -- last weekend of season

If you believe what the Selection Committee has said in the past, today's games are the last ones that matter for filling out the 68 team bracket. The exception is when a Sunday game (Big Ten, SEC, AAC, and A10 championships) pit two teams fighting for the same slot which won't be relevant this year like it hasn't been in most any other year. So what do we know?

#1 seeds --
Houston, UConn and Purdue have three of them locked up.
Did Arizona and Tennessee play themselves out of a #1 seed with losses yesterday?
Can UNC claim the last one with a win over NC State tonight?
or
Can Auburn get the last one with an SEC semifinal win over Miss State this afternoon?
Are there any other contenders?

Big 12 Championship --
If Iowa State can upset Houston, they very well may get a #2 seed.
OTOH, does Iowa State have to avoid a lopsided loss to not be a #4 seed? Important game for Illinois fans.

Big East Championship --
Outcome could determine where Marquette gets seeded. Another relevant game for Illinois fans.

MAC Champtionship --
Does Akron have to win tonight to send John Groce back to the NCAAs? I think yes as the MAC is looking like a one-bid conference.

Lastly....
The NCAA should take a hard look at their NET rating system as there are some things that appear to make no sense. There is absolutely no way Alabama at 21-11 is the #8 team in the country. Likewise, there's no way BYU at 10-8 in the Big12 is better than Illinois. Probably can say the same about Baylor. Some TV analyst, maybe a month ago, did an exposé on how Big12 teams have gamed the system when it comes to NET. Let's not reward them for this.
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Illinois announces Bell, Sitkowski as graduate assistants

CHAMPAIGN, Ill — Former NFL veteran Byron Bell and former Fighting Illini quarterback Artur Sitkowski have been named Illinois' graduate assistants on offense for the 2024 season, head coach Bret Bielema announced. Bell joins the Illini from New Mexico, while Sitkowski remains on staff after serving as a student assistant last season.

Byron Bell

Former NFL veteran Byron Bell is in his first season as an offensive graduate assistant in 2024. Bell joined the Fighting Illini from New Mexico, where he served as a graduate assistant for two seasons.

"I was immediately impressed with Byron and everything he stands for since first meeting him," said head coach Bret Bielema. "His experiences playing across the offensive line during eight seasons in the NFL has already proved to be a great asset to our team since his arrival a month ago. He will continue to work directly with Coach Miller and our offensive line."

"Having played with Byron and then followed his NFL career, I am very excited to now get the chance to coach with him," said offensive line coach Bart Miller. "His knowledge, experience and ability to relate to players will be an asset to our offensive line and the entire program."

"I am excited about the opportunity to join Coach Bielema and Coach Miller here in Champaign," said Bell. "I can't wait to make an impact on our offensive linemen and the rest of the Illini famILLy."

Bell worked with New Mexico's offensive line in 2022 and 2023, handling practice planning, film breakdown, and on-the-field coaching. He also helped with statistical analysis and film preparation.

Bell was a standout player at New Mexico before enjoying an eight-year NFL career. He was a three-year letterman at New Mexico with 36 starts in 37 games played.

Bell earned New Mexico's Outstanding Lineman Award in 2010 before playing for Carolina, Tennessee, Dallas, and Green Bay during his NFL career. He played in 102 NFL games with 83 starts across eight seasons from 2011-18.

After leaving New Mexico in 2010 following his junior season, Bell returned to New Mexico to finish his degree after his NFL career ended. He earned his degree in liberal arts in 2021, then became a graduate assistant for New Mexico. He earned his master’s from New Mexico in physical education and curriculum and instruction in 2023.

Bell is a native of Greenville, Texas.

Artur Sitkowski

Artur Sitkowski is in his second season on the Fighting Illini staff and first as an offensive graduate assistant in 2024. Sitkowski served as a student assistant in 2023 following five seasons playing college football.

"Art is everything we want our program to represent," said head coach Bret Bielema. "He has tough, smart, dependable in his DNA. He has showed time after time that he will do anything for the team, including coming off the bench for wins against Nebraska and Iowa, and starting for the 9 OT win at Penn State. I'm excited to have him continue to work with our quarterbacks and the offensive side of the ball."

"The University of Illinois has changed my life, not only the people inside of the Smith Center, but all those across the Champaign-Urbana community," said Sitkowski. "I am forever grateful for this opportunity. I am excited to impact and influence our current student-athletes, as well as the next generation of student-athletes coming to Champaign."

Sitkowski finished his played career at Illinois for two seasons under head coach Bret Bielema from 2021-22, following a three-year stint at Rutgers from 2017-20. Sitkowski threw for 2,838 yards and 14 touchdowns during his career, including 807 yards and six touchdowns during his two seasons at Illinois. He threw only two interceptions on 229 attempts (1 INT per 114.5 attempts) from 2020-21, the third-best among Power 5 quarterbacks over the two-year stretch (average: 39.7).

Sitkowski's career highlights include leading Illinois to a 20-18 win at #7 Penn State in the longest game in college football history (9 OT) in 2021. The next season he entered the Iowa game in place of injured starter Tommy DeVito and helped lead the Illini to a 9-6 victory over the Hawkeyes as part of Illinois' six-game winning streak that vaulted the Illini to a #14 ranking in the nation.

Sitkowski is a native of Old Bridge, New Jersey, and played high school football at Old Bridge High School for three years, before he transferred to IMG Academy (Fla.) as a senior.

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