Here’s where things stand. Illinois is currently #40. Probably a little underrated due to starting position (which hasn’t fully shaken out), but I don’t think that’s a crazy place to have us based on expected quality.
Categories of Remaining Opponents
Large Underdog - at #10 PSU and at #7 Oregon. Illinois is lucky to get its two best remaining opponents on the road. Even better that at Oregon is the week after the Michigan game (a classic letdown spot, laying an egg here won’t hurt us much). I see PSU as the much more winnable game, Illinois is hot and PSU has been weird in big games under Franklin. The spread being like 17-18 points is absurd, and I’m usually a “go the other way” when a pick seems too obvious like IL getting that many this weekend.
Matchup Games - #17 Michigan in Champaign and at #45 Rutgers. If you applied the home field bonus to expected margin, Illinois is a slight underdog in both games. I’m not that high on either opponent but by November who knows what both IL and RU will actually be. I think Michigan is on its way to 8-4 btw, let’s be one of the 4 Ls they take.
Favored but Competitive - Home to #58 MN and #67 MSU. Fleck is a lot of things I don’t like, but his teams don’t seem to quit. However this MN team is not very good. Illinois is likely to be favored by a bit (would be around 6 based on Sagarin), and let’s hope we can ride Bret’s rich history against MN to a win. Weirdly, MSU might end up being the second easiest game left. Here’s why. Look at their next 5 games and find me a win. A close loss to a middling ACC team (BC) this weekend was very bad for them because they have the toughest B1G schedule of anyone in the league. By mid-November MSU may well be a no excuses contest.
Should Win - #91 Purdue and #84 Northwestern. Until Bret beats Walters, PU makes me nervous. I’d be less nervous if they didn’t have Mockobee. He’s legit. The rest of Purdue - especially the D - is not legitimate. And they have limited depth and two hard hitting opponents the next two weeks (Nebby and Wisconsin), so I hope they are a demoralized 1-4 soon. NGL, NW at Wrigley looks like the easiest game left. NW has some really good athletes on the edge of their offense but they are atrocious at QB, OL and not good on D. Slow field on a brisk November day will be a game about will, NW not looking like a team with much on the line then and easily could be 3-8 or maybe at best 4-7. Hopefully it’s our 9th or 10th win then lol.
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