Underwood's press conference and the associated thread made me think a bit. Here are a few things for people to chew on:
Imagine this squad with Jeremiah Tilmon. Would be a better team than any Missouri or Illinois team these past two years. Makes me want to vomit
1. Illinois was 28th nationally in offensive rebounding rate last year. Was it because they were big or had uber-athletic big men? ... obviously not, it was in large part due to attitude and effort. The offensive rebounding stat is an Underwood thing and I expect it to continue to this year's squad regardless of who plays (or doesn't play) center.
2. Illinois was 4th nationally in opposing team turnover rate. Has Illinois improved athletically on the perimeter? Most definitely. I expect Illinois to once again be in the top-15 in this statistic this year
3. Illinois was 350th (2nd to last, with last place going to.... ding ding, former Underwood squad SFA) in opponent's FTRate, or in other words, fouling. That's obviously horrific and was the reason for numerous losses that could have otherwise been wins (Wake, UNLV, Iowa, to name a few).
Do we expect this trend to continue? Absolutely. Underwood has never had a team better than 256th in this statistic in his head coaching career.
That being said, just a little improvement in this statistic goes a long way. The difference between the ranks of 350th and 300th in Opp. FTR is 7.9%. The difference between 300th and 250th is just 3.2%. The point here is that if Illinois can improve even just a little to Underwood's career average of 320th, they are doing themselves a huge favor in terms of their overall defensive efficiency. The way Illinois will play is going to cause fouls. But the benefits it provides outweigh the costs if they can improve just a little bit in this category.
Can they do that? I think it should be a unanimous opinion that replacing Mark Smith and Tejon Lucas with longer, better-moving guys such as Feliz and Dosunmu will help some. The post defense problem is the same as last year.
In general, I see a better basketball team overall, but it might not manifest in the W/L column because of (a) the schedule difficulty, (b) the continued lack of a competent player to plug in at Center, and (c) youth.2. Illinois was 4th nationally in opposing team turnover rate. Has Illinois improved athletically on the perimeter? Most definitely. I expect Illinois to once again be in the top-15 in this statistic this year
3. Illinois was 350th (2nd to last, with last place going to.... ding ding, former Underwood squad SFA) in opponent's FTRate, or in other words, fouling. That's obviously horrific and was the reason for numerous losses that could have otherwise been wins (Wake, UNLV, Iowa, to name a few).
Do we expect this trend to continue? Absolutely. Underwood has never had a team better than 256th in this statistic in his head coaching career.
That being said, just a little improvement in this statistic goes a long way. The difference between the ranks of 350th and 300th in Opp. FTR is 7.9%. The difference between 300th and 250th is just 3.2%. The point here is that if Illinois can improve even just a little to Underwood's career average of 320th, they are doing themselves a huge favor in terms of their overall defensive efficiency. The way Illinois will play is going to cause fouls. But the benefits it provides outweigh the costs if they can improve just a little bit in this category.
Can they do that? I think it should be a unanimous opinion that replacing Mark Smith and Tejon Lucas with longer, better-moving guys such as Feliz and Dosunmu will help some. The post defense problem is the same as last year.
Imagine this squad with Jeremiah Tilmon. Would be a better team than any Missouri or Illinois team these past two years. Makes me want to vomit
