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The Northwestern Spread

dtrain79

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Jul 13, 2006
48,060
26,498
113
Tells me we are going to beat them this weekend.

We are +3, which means they are about a 60-40 favorite. However, I expected it to be +7 or more, frankly. I mean, NW is 9-2 right now, and they are +3 against us. MN was a bigger favorite (and we were the better team, honestly).

But then you look at NW's numbers and it's not hard to tell why. First, we shouldn't to score a lot to beat them. NW averaged 3 yards per carry last week (and ran Jackson into the ground). They averaged 3 yards per pass. Three frigging yards per pass!!! They won because they were +5 in TO margin (and the refs helped them at the end). However, at least based on their recent performances, like us they are pretty average in TO margin.

Frankly, after losing to MN, I held out little hope of winning. But really, the numbers say NW may be the worst 9-2 team anyone has seen in a long while. All credit to Fitzy for that, really. You have to be a pretty stout coach to go 9-2 with nothing on offense.
 
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