Doug , you hit the nail on the head with your posts today about the admistration's committment to football.If they only cared as much about the team's sucess as much diehard Illini fans do.
The coaching situation
- Thread starter bucshon
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Ha, you might be spot on, hickstw. Perhaps Illinois football has disappointed me so much the last few years that my memories of a flawed Zook program are a little to rosy. But, I'd still take him over Cubit.
Ahh, ok, that makes sense. Don't get me wrong I'd take Richt if for some reason he decided he could only fulfill his football dreams by stalking the sidelines at venerable Memorial stadium.
But, frankly, I'll bet Mark Richt would be hard pressed to find Illinois on U.S. map. He'd probably think he needs a passport to go to Illinois.
Your discussion has circled back to the point I tried to make; we need to stack some decent seasons together before swinging for the fence on a coaching hire. Tepid administration support doesn't guarantee a negative outcome, but it increases the probability we get screwed again because a good coach leaves us hanging when a better job opportunity comes his way. Sumlin(?) is the perfect example, and the same could happen with a hot coach from the MAC. Add the administrative instability both in and outside the AD, and you'd have to find a very, very confident up and comer type coach.
Bottom line for me is its a risk based decision. I think the probability is high Cubit could build a 6 - 8 win program and through that change the perception of the program internally and externally. Alternatively, history has shown me that trying to identify and hire a coach that can potentially do more is a low probability course of action and likely results in another cycle of rebuilding.
Cubit's last 4 years at Western Michigan were 5 wins, 6 wins, 7 wins, 4 wins. Why do you think there's a high probability he could build Illinois into a 6-8 win program.
Actually the probability that Cubes1 would build a winning program at Illinois, when he couldn't do so in the MAC is below 50% IMO. Those voting, so far, for keeping the "ship afloat" with TBCFP(INT) are only suggesting that we bail the sinking boat for a year or two or three. They hope that the ship will not sink or capsize till we replace Cubes1 with someone better.
My bel I ef is that why wait. Make the BIG $ hire and get going up the Big 10 Conference ladder.
We were one or two plays away from firing CTB last year (the made FG and fumble return for TD), now we are again two or three plays away from nobody talking about extending/hiring Cubes1 after this season (a missed FG and two incomplete passes ). As Doug likes to say, yes we made those plays successful and got 4 Wins as a result.
Just I would like to see us dominate plays rather than hope the opponent misses a FG, fumbles on a simple run play, or has a HC make Zook-like decisions on the sidelines at the end of games.
My bel I ef is that why wait. Make the BIG $ hire and get going up the Big 10 Conference ladder.
We were one or two plays away from firing CTB last year (the made FG and fumble return for TD), now we are again two or three plays away from nobody talking about extending/hiring Cubes1 after this season (a missed FG and two incomplete passes ). As Doug likes to say, yes we made those plays successful and got 4 Wins as a result.
Just I would like to see us dominate plays rather than hope the opponent misses a FG, fumbles on a simple run play, or has a HC make Zook-like decisions on the sidelines at the end of games.
We don't have the players who can dominate games right now even if Vince Lombardi was the HC. Heck, we're missing four starters on offense and that's assuming I didn't miss one.
Getting good coaches is a lot more than a question of $$$ as there's the unavoidable reality of attractiveness of the job, too. As has been brought up many times, Illinois is not attractive opposite other schools who are willing and able to throw out big bucks right along with us: Instability at AD, instability at chancellor, last HC fired one week before season. The point several are making, re-establishing some credibility and attractiveness to the school before attempting a home run hire, does have some merit. We can all choose to agree or disagree and I'm not sure there's an automatic right answer.
Below 50%??? LOL.
Cubes1 had an over .500 record (both overall and conference, obviously) at WMU and took over a team that was 1-10, he then lead them to the biggest turnaround in MAC history and won coach of the year. He also went to more bowl games than the school ever had in the entirety of it's football program. He also lead WMU to a bowl game for the first time since 1988... I think he'll be just fine coaching here if that's how it ended up.
Cubes1 had an over .500 record (both overall and conference, obviously) at WMU and took over a team that was 1-10, he then lead them to the biggest turnaround in MAC history and won coach of the year. He also went to more bowl games than the school ever had in the entirety of it's football program. He also lead WMU to a bowl game for the first time since 1988... I think he'll be just fine coaching here if that's how it ended up.
He also was fired. Also Cubit got them to bowl games because there are more bowl games than ever now. His predecessor finished 1st in the MAC West twice (something Cubit never did), he also won 9, 8 and 7 games (like Cubit did) but didn't get a bowl birth.
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He still wasn't good enough at WMU. They fired him because they felt he couldn't get them to the top of the MAC. The B1G is a much more difficult animal than the MAC. If he isn't a guy to get you to the top of the MAC then how is he the right guy to do that in the B1G?
He's a capable OC...as a head coach in the B1G........well, he is a capable OC. His arrow isn't pointing up. It's not like he's a young coach that just needs a good situation to prove himself. He's a solid OC on the tail end of his career. That doesn't sound like what I would want to resurrect the Illini football program. Remember, he was on the street and took a job with a floundering Tim Beckman. That tells you a lot about where his career is and how it doesn't fit for what the Illini need going forward.
Good OC, good guy, not a good solution for the future.
There's nothing about his coaching history that says failure. That's just a loaded analysis. Now is he destined for greatness. That's not there, either. He did OK (really a little above average) at WMU. It seems frankly that's about what he is at IL. Can a guy like that win 7 games in Champaign each fall? I have no idea. But it's more realistic to think he can than 3 of the last 4 coaches we've had (and the 4th just was a fool on game day).
One thing I often wonder is how much of a difference there truly is in the various coaching chops in the conferences. Sure, the best of the best find their way to the best spots (Snyder, Leach, and a few others excepted), but I think there are plenty of "just guys" coaching in major conferences. To be honest, what if we had three different "just guys" coaching us the last 25 years? We'd be a lot better than we've been IMO. We've had way worse than that. Like I've said before, you'd have had to have tried to get the level of crap coach IL has had in the last 4 years. It's not even bad luck at that point, it's like working to fail.
I think there's a huge underestimate of how bad things have been on the sidelines when I point to The Zooker as head and shoulders our best coach since 1991.
I think saying he did ok at WMU with moments of better than ok is fair.
I'm not sold that he is better than the recent Algonquin round table of coaches we've seen patrolling the sidelines at Illinois.
You know this after 7 games into the season where he took over Beckman's program? The defense has been pretty good and Cubit has nothing to do with that. The offense has been putrid and I suppose the injuries have something to do with it. Most of all, He still has not developed a decent running game. This is the Big ten and if you cant have at least a marginal running game, the other coaches will easily beat you. Illinois does not have the horses to compete week in and out in this league and it wont wont change with this staff. They better hire someone who can recruit some size and athleticism on both sides of the ball.....
Couldn't agree more about the level of failure in hiring football coaches at Illinois. Although, I admit I thought the hiring of both Turner and Zook were good hires. But, yeah, your point about having to try to hire poorly to reach these depths is amusing and true.
Very hard to know how a given coach will perform at the various levels of conference play. I'm sure there are examples leading opinions both ways. With regards to Cubit I also think his age is a part of the equation. Being an ok coach in the MAC and being fairly close to retirement tends to make me think he isn't the right guy for the future of Illinois football.
Seems like so many folks here are content with "settling" for Cubit. Lots of reasons expressed as to why he should be elevated but, in my opinion, the only real valid reason is if you genuinely believe he is a terrific coach who will take the Illini to at least the upper half of the B1G and keep us there. Unfortunately, his history as a head coach before Illinois and even this year yields little to sway those on the other side who believe we would, indeed, be settling for mediocrity if we extend Cubit. Tigers rarely change their stripes and Cubit's history is fair to middlin'. Yes, he is a good guy. But Lou Tepper was a terrific human being and I sure wish we never hired him.
Let's shoot for the stars. Find the hitters who feel the same way, raise a pile of money and go after Fuente or Herman or even Everett Withers. Rick Neuheisel is far more intriguing and buzz-worthy to me than Bill Cubit. Let's not settle this time unless we absolutely have to do so. Been there done that and a lot of the reason we are where we are is because we have settled. Money may not cure all ills but it goes a long way in getting potential coaches' attention. Be bold!
Oh Lord, more on "THE RUN."
I don't know this after 7 games. Cubit has coached over a hundred games as HC. There's no reason to think he's a vastly different coach now than he was after 60+ games as a HC. I think his qualities are very transitive. The question is how much of a "step up" is coaching in the B1G. I have my doubts it's as big as some make it to be.
He probably isn't the best choice going forward. I've posited I believe Babers is for a host of reasons. But if we aren't getting Babers or someone of a similar caliber, then I have no issue keeping Cubit around. Illinois should now if Babers is coming before they rid themselves of Cubit. If we are thrashing around looking for the next Beckie, then this is a no brainer, and Cubit needs to stick around without a big buyout.
If you think Neuheisel is better or more intriguing than Cubit, we ought to just not talk. He's terrible, has proven to be terrible at multiple stops, and should never even be given consideration. He's exactly the kind of coach I talk about when we discuss how it's not so certain high majors have these "way better" coaches than lower level schools. Heck, it took Bo Ryan into his mid-50s to get a break to a high major. Beilein was 50ish. Izzo was a 20-year assistant. Those are by far the three best "coaches" in B1G basketball.
And honestly, the only coach we "settled for" is Tepper, who was hired for convenience by a Chancellor or President that didn't want to commit time to that. That doesn't really look great for the Cubit candidacy, but our performance on the open market has left things to be desired.
I'm really good with that, DT. Really.
Slice it however you want. If we elevate Cubit without pursuing others, we settled.
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Neuheisel was 33-14 at Colorado. He was 33-16 at Washington. At his alma mater, UCLA, he was 21-29. That is the outlier.
If he came to the beloved and went 87-59 (let alone 66-30), we'd be talking about "Neuheisel Rock" and where to put his statue. To compare, John Mackovic was. 30-16-1 during his days in Champaign.
If he came to the beloved and went 87-59 (let alone 66-30), we'd be talking about "Neuheisel Rock" and where to put his statue. To compare, John Mackovic was. 30-16-1 during his days in Champaign.
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Look at how he started at every place and how things went at the end/right after he left. He did well with others' players (and btw, he took over CU after McCartney went 11-1 in his final year). Barnett was .500 in the two seasons after Neuheisel left. UW went 7-17 in the two years after he left. Both jobs he started out strong without his kids, was average when he left, and the program sucked right after he departed. Maybe he was coaching 'em up.
Neuheisel made every job he touched materially worse.
His arcs look suspiciously like that of Bruce Weber's, by the way.
I'm really good with that, DT. Really.
Slice it however you want. If we elevate Cubit without pursuing others, we settled.
Yeah, Rick George and Rick Neuheisel. You have a real eye for talent.
The discussion has mostly been Bill Cubit or "coach x". Isn't the real question Current Staff or "a different staff"? When looking at Cubit's record at WMU, the results should be measured opposite of the makeup of his staff. Frankly, I don't know who he had there but I'd venture to guess it didn't look like our current staff. If we go another direction it has to be under the premise that a new staff will be decidedly better than our current staff. I say decidedly because there's almost always a hit in recruiting when making a change. It's a deeper question than HC A vs HC B.
There's a lot of questions, but the staff one is almost unanswerable. Good HCs tend to end up with good staffs that help them win.
Neuheisel doesn't fit in Champaign for cultural reasons but the history on him is not as dire as being posted. At UCLA he recruited well despite little to no administration support and if given some time might have gotten the program to better results, but he never is going to be an elite coach. Mora used his recruits to win 9 games the first season and then 10 games, etc. Brett Hundley and many of the players featured under Mora the 1st few years were Neuheisel recruits. Neuheisel is not a midwest kind of guy and one could have said that about Mike White, except Neuheisel is no Mike White. Illinois would flop with Neuheisel so hopefully he is not on any short lists.
Neuheisel did OK with Colorado, but he tanked UW and failed at UCLA.
He has BW written all over him. BW has a pretty good record, doesn't he? Deceiving, very deceiving.
Or maybe good staffs help head coaches win, thus helping to make them "good coaches".
There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle.
1. For the Tom Herman people, he has a 2.25 million dollar buyout before 2018. I'm guessing that's not going to happen...
2. Fuente would be great but with the Ole Miss win he has probably played himself to a better job.
3. Neuheisel? No thanks. Colorado was great his first two years with McCartney's players before becoming very average. He had a great second season at Washington before becoming very average. And his best season at UCLA was 7-6. He put together the UCLA team that played Illinois in the Interim Coach Bowl. There's a reason he hasn't coached since 2011, and it's not because he's holding out until Nick Saban retires.
4. Cubes1: wasn't good enough to remain head coach at WMU. He could probably keep us in the 5 to maybe 7 win range. If that's what we strive for, then he's probably cheaper than getting a new guy. He hasn't exactly blown me away with his tactical acumen this year. He's benefited massively from a really sh*tty OOC schedule and B1G West. Think about our victories: Kent St (remarkably bad at football), WIU (FCS), MTSU (AAC, very lucky to escape w/win) and a last-second 1 point win at home over the worst Nebraska team of my lifetime (you could debate a couple Callahan teams may have been equally bad). Our losses were a blowout to UNC, Wisky team gutted by graduation and injuries and a pretty average Iowa team.
Not sure next year's team will be significantly better than this one. We lose Fergy, Allison, Karras. I assume Lunt returns. Lose Ward, Monheim, Spence, Bentley, Fejedelem, Zalewski (not great but assuming he's better than the guy behind him). The big bonus is getting DudeK back. Any juniors that bold would be a huge issue, especially if it were a DL guy where we're really thin.
If there were ever a time to rise up the B1G West pecking order, it's now. I don't think Cubes1 will take us there so might as well spin the wheel again. Babers at least checks off one box and likely won't be any worse than Cubes1. He'd need to be surrounded by some experienced assistants; if we could keep a couple of the current guys it would go a long way. Also, Bill Cubit is 62 years old. How much longer is he going to want to keep coaching anyway?
Illinois also needs someone who can recruit some of the better players in state. In the 80s and 90s, Illinois actually landed some good players after maybe the blue bloods got theirs. We did not routinely lose kids to MSU, Wisconsin or Iowa. We actually landed some of the top 100 type of kids at that time. NOw, we can barely compete with the Syracuses and NC States of the world. This needs to change....
Tomahawk... all good points except the "average Iowa team". They're 7-0 and ranked #10. Wish we were that average.
Iowie doesn't have the "WOW" factor when you watch them play.
What they have is roster depth and players recruited for the Iowie "style".
Starting RB goes out and the #2 guy runs vs. us for a school record. Next week he injures his ankle and the #3 guys sets a record for TD's.
What they have is roster depth and players recruited for the Iowie "style".
Starting RB goes out and the #2 guy runs vs. us for a school record. Next week he injures his ankle and the #3 guys sets a record for TD's.
Let me start by saying this game today is HUGE for Cubes.... do or die.
If we lose today (better not or my day will be ruined).....
1) Justin Fuente
2) Greg Schiano
3) Tom Herman
4) Butch Davis
There should be absolutely no reason we can't throw out huge money and get 1 of them.
Let's get serious about competing for championships and not just praying to squeak into the "who gives a damn" bowl in toledo !!
If we lose today (better not or my day will be ruined).....
1) Justin Fuente
2) Greg Schiano
3) Tom Herman
4) Butch Davis
There should be absolutely no reason we can't throw out huge money and get 1 of them.
Let's get serious about competing for championships and not just praying to squeak into the "who gives a damn" bowl in toledo !!
Everyone has an opinion to whom they want, but Davis and Schiano are both unemployed, Fuente is doing so well that I don't feel that he would jump to Illinois when there may be better opportunities after the season for him and Herman's buyout is over $2M. Do you really feel that Illinois can afford the buyout plus at least $2 million in salary? My fear would be that there wouldn't be enough money to hire a quality staff if so much money is required to hire Herman in the first place.
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