It's the summer and things are relatively slow so I thought I would dig into where each program stands going forward. This is not a ranking of how I think the standings will look next year (although some will look similar) but where I think they rank in regards to overall program for this year and going forward.
Pretty much all of the class of 2017 has found their final destiny (until they transfer in a year or two) and almost all grad transfers are gone (or free agency period as I call it) or at least all the good ones (except for MiKyle McIntosh and Dwight Coleby) so it's time to look at where all the Big Ten teams stand at the moment and I have decided to divide them into seven sections for a variety of reasons:
This part includes the first two sections:
TOP DOG
Michigan State....Izzo's eight Final Four's provide the shiniest resume and he's not slowing down at all. Even with injuries and a really mediocre roster last year he still found a way in the NCAA tourney and this year he'll be back in the Top Ten and potentially challenging for his second NCAA title.
Likely starters:
FR F Jaren Jackson
SO F Miles Bridges
SO C Nick Ward
SO G Joshua Langford
SO G Cassius Winston
This starting line-up is loaded as Miles Bridges would have been a lottery pick but decided to make a title run and return to school. The Spartans return their other three super soph's in the backcourt and at center and bring in 6-10 Jaren Jackson who is a stud at the power forward.
Their bench has a lot of experience up front with Ben Carter (6th year) and Gavin Schilling (5th year).....they also have talented 6-8, 250-pound frosh, Xavier Tillman. They'll get some energy minutes from Kenny Goins and Kyle Ahrens at the small forward position and need guard Matt McQuaid to shoot the ball like he's capable of. Tum Tum Nair Jr. (who seems like he's been in East Lansing for 12 years) returns to play great defense and not shoot a lick for his fourth straight season.
Overall, this program is in the best state. They have the best tradition of the past 25 years in the Big Ten and even if they lose Bridges and few others, much of the young talent should be back in 2018. Izzo is already loading up from a recruiting standpoint with 4-star PG Foster Loyer, 4-star PF Thomas Kithier, and 6-11, 220-pound center Braden Burke who is sitting out as a transfer from Robert Morris (he's currently a preferred walk-on but is supposedly a solid player).
CLOSE TO THE TOP DOG
Wisconsin.....if Bo Ryan was still the coach they would be in the top category because they have clearly been the top dog along with MSU for the past decade. Greg Gard has done a solid job replacing him but NOW we will start to really find out what kind of coach he is long term. He first lost Frank Kaminsky but he still got to coach Koenig, Hayes, Showalter, and Brown last year which means all the main elements from the back-to-back Final Four's are gone.
Likely starters:
JR F Alex Illikainen
JR F Khalil Iverson
JR C Ethan Happ
FR G Kobe King
SO G D'Mitrik Trice
Happ is the obvious go to guy for this team but watch out for Iverson who has shown a decent amount of potential. Jordan Hill might have started but he transferred to Seattle so Wisconsin High School Player of the Year Kobe King will likely start in the back court. They have a great freshmen class with 4-star guard Brad Davison, who will play a lot and 4-star forward Nathan Reuvers (6-10), who may start over Illikainen. Either way, this entire roster will be around for the next two seasons (unless Happ leaves early) because the roster only has one senior, Aaron Moesch, who probably won't play much.
So they should be able to build off the upcoming season and be really good again in 2018-19 as they also have 5-star SG Tyler Herro already committed and UWGB transfer guard Trevor Anderson, who will have three years of eligibility.
Their bench this year will be very untested as they will have the freshmen I already mentioned and Andy Van Vliet as the main big off the bench with either Illikainen or Reuvers (whoever doesn't start) and Pritzl at guard, and a sleeper redshirt freshman 6-8 forward Aleem Ford, who supposedly has looked good.
This program has earned elite status just under Michigan State and now we will spend the next couple of seasons watching to see if Gard can keep up the standards that Bo Ryan set.
Michigan......Belien had them in the title game a few years ago and after a couple of rough seasons due to mainly injuries, he took them on a special run that almost ended up back in the Final Four. They return some very strong talent and got saved in the off-season thanks to a transfer point guard. Likely starters:
SR F Duncan Robinson
SO F Charles Matthews
JR C Moritz Wagner
SR G Muhammad Ali-Abdur-Rahkman
SR G Jaaron Simmons
Simmons picked Michigan over Dayton and Ohio State. The grad transfer averaged 15 points, 6 assists, and 3 rebounds a game at Ohio and could be the missing piece for their team this season. Had D.J. Wilson not left for the NBA, this team likely would have been Top 15 or higher. They key will be how the bench plays. Wagner should be a load inside and Rahkman and the Kentucky transfer, Matthews, should be very tough to stop at the wing position.
They have a strong freshman class coming in with SG Jordan Poole (very good shooter) and PG Eli Brooks joining Xavier Simpson which means along with Ibi Watson that Michigan is fine on the perimeter off the bench. The question mark which could be answered in a big way is the depth up front. They have Mr.Basketball in Michigan (4-star forward 6-8) Isaiah Livers and then a couple of true bigs: sophomore Jon Teske who is 7-foot and expected to help a lot off the bench and redshirt freshmen Austin Davis who is 6-10, 240-pounds and who the staff is expecting big things from.
Michigan's only committed recruit for 2018 is 4-star point guard David DeJulius who will likely compete with Simpson for the starting job in 2018-19.
A couple of side notes:
Andrew Dakich (who sadly has to call Dan his father) has transferred to Quinnipiac
Mark Donnal has transferred to Clemson
Northwestern......I know about the tradition but that has all changed and Northwestern is going to be really good from this point on for a variety of reasons......#1 they return all important pieces from last year that almost beat runner-up Gonzaga...#2 they have a tremendous young coach who has built things the right way......#3 they play a style that will continue to bring in good talent that hasn't been seen on a consistent basis. Likely starters:
SR F Gavin Skelly
JR F Vic Law
JR C Dererk Pardon
SR G Scottie Lindsey
SR G Bryant McIntosh
This line-up should only improve off last year and Collins has an extremely deep bench that will likely thrive when Skelly, Lindsey, and McIntosh graduate. Benson started to show solid potential down the stretch last year and Falzon, like Skelly, can really stretch the defense. Isiah Brown was one of the most underrated freshmen in the country last year and he should be a great replacement for McIntosh. Anthony Gaines is an underrated wing coming in as a freshman and probably the biggest X-factor on their roster is former Barrington star Rapolas Ivanauskas, who is a combo-forward that should have a huge impact over the next four years.
Northwestern has already landed Boston College small forward transfer A.J. Turner, who averaged 8 points last year and also shot 37% from three-point range. He will sit out this season and have two years of eligibility.
Pretty much all of the class of 2017 has found their final destiny (until they transfer in a year or two) and almost all grad transfers are gone (or free agency period as I call it) or at least all the good ones (except for MiKyle McIntosh and Dwight Coleby) so it's time to look at where all the Big Ten teams stand at the moment and I have decided to divide them into seven sections for a variety of reasons:
This part includes the first two sections:
TOP DOG
Michigan State....Izzo's eight Final Four's provide the shiniest resume and he's not slowing down at all. Even with injuries and a really mediocre roster last year he still found a way in the NCAA tourney and this year he'll be back in the Top Ten and potentially challenging for his second NCAA title.
Likely starters:
FR F Jaren Jackson
SO F Miles Bridges
SO C Nick Ward
SO G Joshua Langford
SO G Cassius Winston
This starting line-up is loaded as Miles Bridges would have been a lottery pick but decided to make a title run and return to school. The Spartans return their other three super soph's in the backcourt and at center and bring in 6-10 Jaren Jackson who is a stud at the power forward.
Their bench has a lot of experience up front with Ben Carter (6th year) and Gavin Schilling (5th year).....they also have talented 6-8, 250-pound frosh, Xavier Tillman. They'll get some energy minutes from Kenny Goins and Kyle Ahrens at the small forward position and need guard Matt McQuaid to shoot the ball like he's capable of. Tum Tum Nair Jr. (who seems like he's been in East Lansing for 12 years) returns to play great defense and not shoot a lick for his fourth straight season.
Overall, this program is in the best state. They have the best tradition of the past 25 years in the Big Ten and even if they lose Bridges and few others, much of the young talent should be back in 2018. Izzo is already loading up from a recruiting standpoint with 4-star PG Foster Loyer, 4-star PF Thomas Kithier, and 6-11, 220-pound center Braden Burke who is sitting out as a transfer from Robert Morris (he's currently a preferred walk-on but is supposedly a solid player).
CLOSE TO THE TOP DOG
Wisconsin.....if Bo Ryan was still the coach they would be in the top category because they have clearly been the top dog along with MSU for the past decade. Greg Gard has done a solid job replacing him but NOW we will start to really find out what kind of coach he is long term. He first lost Frank Kaminsky but he still got to coach Koenig, Hayes, Showalter, and Brown last year which means all the main elements from the back-to-back Final Four's are gone.
Likely starters:
JR F Alex Illikainen
JR F Khalil Iverson
JR C Ethan Happ
FR G Kobe King
SO G D'Mitrik Trice
Happ is the obvious go to guy for this team but watch out for Iverson who has shown a decent amount of potential. Jordan Hill might have started but he transferred to Seattle so Wisconsin High School Player of the Year Kobe King will likely start in the back court. They have a great freshmen class with 4-star guard Brad Davison, who will play a lot and 4-star forward Nathan Reuvers (6-10), who may start over Illikainen. Either way, this entire roster will be around for the next two seasons (unless Happ leaves early) because the roster only has one senior, Aaron Moesch, who probably won't play much.
So they should be able to build off the upcoming season and be really good again in 2018-19 as they also have 5-star SG Tyler Herro already committed and UWGB transfer guard Trevor Anderson, who will have three years of eligibility.
Their bench this year will be very untested as they will have the freshmen I already mentioned and Andy Van Vliet as the main big off the bench with either Illikainen or Reuvers (whoever doesn't start) and Pritzl at guard, and a sleeper redshirt freshman 6-8 forward Aleem Ford, who supposedly has looked good.
This program has earned elite status just under Michigan State and now we will spend the next couple of seasons watching to see if Gard can keep up the standards that Bo Ryan set.
Michigan......Belien had them in the title game a few years ago and after a couple of rough seasons due to mainly injuries, he took them on a special run that almost ended up back in the Final Four. They return some very strong talent and got saved in the off-season thanks to a transfer point guard. Likely starters:
SR F Duncan Robinson
SO F Charles Matthews
JR C Moritz Wagner
SR G Muhammad Ali-Abdur-Rahkman
SR G Jaaron Simmons
Simmons picked Michigan over Dayton and Ohio State. The grad transfer averaged 15 points, 6 assists, and 3 rebounds a game at Ohio and could be the missing piece for their team this season. Had D.J. Wilson not left for the NBA, this team likely would have been Top 15 or higher. They key will be how the bench plays. Wagner should be a load inside and Rahkman and the Kentucky transfer, Matthews, should be very tough to stop at the wing position.
They have a strong freshman class coming in with SG Jordan Poole (very good shooter) and PG Eli Brooks joining Xavier Simpson which means along with Ibi Watson that Michigan is fine on the perimeter off the bench. The question mark which could be answered in a big way is the depth up front. They have Mr.Basketball in Michigan (4-star forward 6-8) Isaiah Livers and then a couple of true bigs: sophomore Jon Teske who is 7-foot and expected to help a lot off the bench and redshirt freshmen Austin Davis who is 6-10, 240-pounds and who the staff is expecting big things from.
Michigan's only committed recruit for 2018 is 4-star point guard David DeJulius who will likely compete with Simpson for the starting job in 2018-19.
A couple of side notes:
Andrew Dakich (who sadly has to call Dan his father) has transferred to Quinnipiac
Mark Donnal has transferred to Clemson
Northwestern......I know about the tradition but that has all changed and Northwestern is going to be really good from this point on for a variety of reasons......#1 they return all important pieces from last year that almost beat runner-up Gonzaga...#2 they have a tremendous young coach who has built things the right way......#3 they play a style that will continue to bring in good talent that hasn't been seen on a consistent basis. Likely starters:
SR F Gavin Skelly
JR F Vic Law
JR C Dererk Pardon
SR G Scottie Lindsey
SR G Bryant McIntosh
This line-up should only improve off last year and Collins has an extremely deep bench that will likely thrive when Skelly, Lindsey, and McIntosh graduate. Benson started to show solid potential down the stretch last year and Falzon, like Skelly, can really stretch the defense. Isiah Brown was one of the most underrated freshmen in the country last year and he should be a great replacement for McIntosh. Anthony Gaines is an underrated wing coming in as a freshman and probably the biggest X-factor on their roster is former Barrington star Rapolas Ivanauskas, who is a combo-forward that should have a huge impact over the next four years.
Northwestern has already landed Boston College small forward transfer A.J. Turner, who averaged 8 points last year and also shot 37% from three-point range. He will sit out this season and have two years of eligibility.
