How about a look at the statistical rankings this week?
KenPom: 97
T-Rank: 71
Sagarin: 59
TeamRankings.com: 71
Our competition improved slightly (DePaul #127, Marshall #200 KenPom), our play continued to improve at a similar clip, and the rankings are responding accordingly. Jeff Sagarin, in particular, likes what he sees, apparently.
So, what is driving our improvement over the short season so far? I would point to a few things:
1. Leron Black has remembered he is a stalwart in the post, and is scoring efficiently. Black came to Illinois with a reputation of being a scrapper, a physical specimen, a great rebounder, and a great tryhard scorer with a more refined than expected jumper. John Groce saw this package, and decided (?) to push the shooting of Black while failing to channel his aggression toward productive post offense. The result was an explosive player who hung around at the arc, often failing to take advantage of his body and motor. Add in a dose of fouling too much, and you have a bust, right?
Brad Underwood saw through this and has reforged Black as his original self, reducing perimeter touches to rare occurences in favor of the pinch post, where he's made a huge impact already. Shockingly (to me), Black appears to be at least as skilled as Finke in this role, where his own threat to bully his way to the bucket makes him a terror with the dribble handoff we're seeing so much of since the DePaul game. The touch that made Leron such a strong shooter from mid-range (still a weapon for bailout shots, btw) is maximized around the hoop, where his fallaways and baby hooks are hitting the bottom of the net at a high rate.
I don't think it's out of bounds to say that Leron is our best player right now. His assist rate (!!!) is high as he's even distributing a bit to add to his prolific scoring and rebounding. Leron finally looks like a star once more, and the B1G better watch out because he's always had the body and bounce to compete at this level.
2. Kipper Nichols is becoming the archetypal "3s and D" player you see about 50 of in the NBA. Kipper had a strange road to Illinois, but his short career has clearly demonstrated how much he belongs at this level. He also has the body to compete at a high level in college, but his mentality seemed to hold him back. His freelancing was all we had under Groce at times, and so we saw the flashes last year. Now his potential will be determined by how he meshes his creativity and mismatch-making ability with the Underwood system. Early returns are blowing away expectations to this point.
Kipper is able to a) rebound misses at a high rate, b) handle well enough to start a break, c) big enough to finish at the rim, and d) a good enough shooter to hit from outside on demand. He's a fast break player with everything you need to efficiently score on the run, and the platonic ideal of a dribble handoff monster. We're going to run this handoff with Black and Nichols a lot this year, and we're going to beat teams with it until they sell out to stop it.
One of the many high-value traits of Underwood is a consistent demand for attention to detail and focus. This is a godsend for Nichols, who someday may owe his NBA career to the persistent shouting of his head coach. There, I said it: I think Nichols' ceiling is that high, given the skills he's already displayed. If he can handle an outside shot diet at the next level, he's already got what he needs. He'll need to avoid TOs and tighten the handle a bit more (like BP3). Kipper has the highest PER on this team (barely) in limited duty, and his prowess off the bench is going to wreck 2nd units in the B1G this year.
3. DaMonte Williams is giving off young star vibes in almost every facet. Some players succeed because of physical gifts alone (Sam Thompson III, anyone?), and some players are so heady they can play at the highest levels despite average speed/strength (Fred Van Vleet). When you find a player who is both in the right place instinctually on a consistent basis AND strong enough to win balls against three opposing players consistently, take note because that player is going places. His (very) early career returns so far are promising. As we learned from Ray Rice and Chester Frazier, high-level rebounding guards can impact a game in many more ways than traditional guards.
I'll make a bold prediction here: I don't think Te'Jon Lucas loses his starting role to Trent Frazier, but instead to Frankie's boy in a few weeks. Williams can get his, distribute, and play defense, effectively replicating the role Lucas plays in this offense, but adding a physical presence that only Mark Smith can match. Stephen Bardo, who goes out of his way to appear impartial because he also loves sticking it to the program for some reason, mentioned that the young guards for the Illini were quite impressive for frosh, and likely set the stage for a return to prominence in the near future.
Williams is crucial for this to occur. Smith is going to get his and be a star, but Trent may struggle to add the requisite weight to become a bully and a shooter that most guards need to be in order to be a star in the B1G. He's got the body already, and is a confident jumper from tearing people up (Frazier's handling is a big part of the puzzle, but this point is about Williams). The Illini have a recent history of surrounding one bonafide star with not much, and suffering. If/when Williams becomes a star player, it grants the Illini a second star guard to pair with Smith and Black. Looking forward just a bit...
4. The table is set for big things... and Ayo. Because our bigs are looking as advertised and the young guards are flashing potential, Ayo Dosunmu is going to arrive on campus in a perfect scenario. If he's ready to run the show from day one, he moves our second unit into recently unheard of territory for Illini fans. Remember back when our second five could finish .600 in conference? Those days are likely back if the second unit is Williams/Lucas, Frazier/Lucas, Nichols, Jordan, Spicy G. If he's not ready from day one, he replaces Williams and blows out second units all season.
This system is worth some number of points relative to Groce teams by its nature of generating easy looks and FTs, the roster improvement is maximized by virtue of all the frosh-soph and junior-senior leaps across the board, and only Ayo will be learning the ropes for the first time. Ayo, being a guard who can get his easily at any level, is the perfect player for this system, and a lineup that includes Black, Nichols, Dosunmu, Smith, and Williams is a physically dominant lineup that can simply overpower all but maybe 15 teams by sheer force. If you like bullying other teams on the court, tune in next season because we're going to do it.
How did this happen? Well, dumb luck, scouting, actual luck, and recruiting. Frankie's boy fell into our lap at the exact right time, Mark Smith turned out to be a huge Illini fan as a kid, Trent Frazier was thrown into the lurch after falling for Groce and then the Illini fanbase (who showered him with attention he sorta didn't get in the FL HS scene) before realizing what an opportunity he had with Underwood, and Ayo and his family bought into the situation we had to offer him (which was perfect, as mentioned above). Kudos to John Groce for cashing in good fortune before exiting, keeping this legacy intact, and getting a good start with Mark Smith. If you ever wondered how Underwood can be so calm when the winds of recruiting tempests howl around him, remember this paragraph and imagine him sitting in a warm bomb shelter with reinforced picture windows as he nurses his Laphroaig Quarter Cask and puts down the lamb skewer.
Brad Underwood has arrived and the fireworks are about to start. Go Illini.
KenPom: 97
T-Rank: 71
Sagarin: 59
TeamRankings.com: 71
Our competition improved slightly (DePaul #127, Marshall #200 KenPom), our play continued to improve at a similar clip, and the rankings are responding accordingly. Jeff Sagarin, in particular, likes what he sees, apparently.
So, what is driving our improvement over the short season so far? I would point to a few things:
1. Leron Black has remembered he is a stalwart in the post, and is scoring efficiently. Black came to Illinois with a reputation of being a scrapper, a physical specimen, a great rebounder, and a great tryhard scorer with a more refined than expected jumper. John Groce saw this package, and decided (?) to push the shooting of Black while failing to channel his aggression toward productive post offense. The result was an explosive player who hung around at the arc, often failing to take advantage of his body and motor. Add in a dose of fouling too much, and you have a bust, right?
Brad Underwood saw through this and has reforged Black as his original self, reducing perimeter touches to rare occurences in favor of the pinch post, where he's made a huge impact already. Shockingly (to me), Black appears to be at least as skilled as Finke in this role, where his own threat to bully his way to the bucket makes him a terror with the dribble handoff we're seeing so much of since the DePaul game. The touch that made Leron such a strong shooter from mid-range (still a weapon for bailout shots, btw) is maximized around the hoop, where his fallaways and baby hooks are hitting the bottom of the net at a high rate.
I don't think it's out of bounds to say that Leron is our best player right now. His assist rate (!!!) is high as he's even distributing a bit to add to his prolific scoring and rebounding. Leron finally looks like a star once more, and the B1G better watch out because he's always had the body and bounce to compete at this level.
2. Kipper Nichols is becoming the archetypal "3s and D" player you see about 50 of in the NBA. Kipper had a strange road to Illinois, but his short career has clearly demonstrated how much he belongs at this level. He also has the body to compete at a high level in college, but his mentality seemed to hold him back. His freelancing was all we had under Groce at times, and so we saw the flashes last year. Now his potential will be determined by how he meshes his creativity and mismatch-making ability with the Underwood system. Early returns are blowing away expectations to this point.
Kipper is able to a) rebound misses at a high rate, b) handle well enough to start a break, c) big enough to finish at the rim, and d) a good enough shooter to hit from outside on demand. He's a fast break player with everything you need to efficiently score on the run, and the platonic ideal of a dribble handoff monster. We're going to run this handoff with Black and Nichols a lot this year, and we're going to beat teams with it until they sell out to stop it.
One of the many high-value traits of Underwood is a consistent demand for attention to detail and focus. This is a godsend for Nichols, who someday may owe his NBA career to the persistent shouting of his head coach. There, I said it: I think Nichols' ceiling is that high, given the skills he's already displayed. If he can handle an outside shot diet at the next level, he's already got what he needs. He'll need to avoid TOs and tighten the handle a bit more (like BP3). Kipper has the highest PER on this team (barely) in limited duty, and his prowess off the bench is going to wreck 2nd units in the B1G this year.
3. DaMonte Williams is giving off young star vibes in almost every facet. Some players succeed because of physical gifts alone (Sam Thompson III, anyone?), and some players are so heady they can play at the highest levels despite average speed/strength (Fred Van Vleet). When you find a player who is both in the right place instinctually on a consistent basis AND strong enough to win balls against three opposing players consistently, take note because that player is going places. His (very) early career returns so far are promising. As we learned from Ray Rice and Chester Frazier, high-level rebounding guards can impact a game in many more ways than traditional guards.
I'll make a bold prediction here: I don't think Te'Jon Lucas loses his starting role to Trent Frazier, but instead to Frankie's boy in a few weeks. Williams can get his, distribute, and play defense, effectively replicating the role Lucas plays in this offense, but adding a physical presence that only Mark Smith can match. Stephen Bardo, who goes out of his way to appear impartial because he also loves sticking it to the program for some reason, mentioned that the young guards for the Illini were quite impressive for frosh, and likely set the stage for a return to prominence in the near future.
Williams is crucial for this to occur. Smith is going to get his and be a star, but Trent may struggle to add the requisite weight to become a bully and a shooter that most guards need to be in order to be a star in the B1G. He's got the body already, and is a confident jumper from tearing people up (Frazier's handling is a big part of the puzzle, but this point is about Williams). The Illini have a recent history of surrounding one bonafide star with not much, and suffering. If/when Williams becomes a star player, it grants the Illini a second star guard to pair with Smith and Black. Looking forward just a bit...
4. The table is set for big things... and Ayo. Because our bigs are looking as advertised and the young guards are flashing potential, Ayo Dosunmu is going to arrive on campus in a perfect scenario. If he's ready to run the show from day one, he moves our second unit into recently unheard of territory for Illini fans. Remember back when our second five could finish .600 in conference? Those days are likely back if the second unit is Williams/Lucas, Frazier/Lucas, Nichols, Jordan, Spicy G. If he's not ready from day one, he replaces Williams and blows out second units all season.
This system is worth some number of points relative to Groce teams by its nature of generating easy looks and FTs, the roster improvement is maximized by virtue of all the frosh-soph and junior-senior leaps across the board, and only Ayo will be learning the ropes for the first time. Ayo, being a guard who can get his easily at any level, is the perfect player for this system, and a lineup that includes Black, Nichols, Dosunmu, Smith, and Williams is a physically dominant lineup that can simply overpower all but maybe 15 teams by sheer force. If you like bullying other teams on the court, tune in next season because we're going to do it.
How did this happen? Well, dumb luck, scouting, actual luck, and recruiting. Frankie's boy fell into our lap at the exact right time, Mark Smith turned out to be a huge Illini fan as a kid, Trent Frazier was thrown into the lurch after falling for Groce and then the Illini fanbase (who showered him with attention he sorta didn't get in the FL HS scene) before realizing what an opportunity he had with Underwood, and Ayo and his family bought into the situation we had to offer him (which was perfect, as mentioned above). Kudos to John Groce for cashing in good fortune before exiting, keeping this legacy intact, and getting a good start with Mark Smith. If you ever wondered how Underwood can be so calm when the winds of recruiting tempests howl around him, remember this paragraph and imagine him sitting in a warm bomb shelter with reinforced picture windows as he nurses his Laphroaig Quarter Cask and puts down the lamb skewer.
Brad Underwood has arrived and the fireworks are about to start. Go Illini.
