Preseason analytics will not be useful for us this year

[IlliniJoe81]

I'm waiting for the 2025 KenPom ratings, but I also appreciate that they will not give us the numbers we're looking for. Here's why:

• KenPom struggles with international players, reclassifications, and high 4* players. I think they can capture the one-and-done guys but I don't think that credit will go all the way to capture guys like KJ and Riley. We see them as potential lottery picks. KenPom won't. I have no idea what they are going to expect out of Ivisic either. Our wheelhouse of Top 50 but not Top 25 star freshmen (think Kofi, Ayo, and hopefully Morez Johnson) just don't move the needle either.
• High usage, low efficiency rate transfers won't rate very well. If you assume Tre White and Carey Booth are going to see tons of floor time (because you discount our freshmen), then you aren't going to give them an efficiency boost in a lower usage role. Underwood is going to define their roles.
• Our KenPom is going to bank heavily on guys like Ty Rodgers, Kylan Boswell, and Tre White. If that was all we had on the roster then we're probably the bubble team that we'll be rated as (I'm thinking we'll be 45-55 in the preseason KenPom.) We just don't have a proven star. We may benefit some from our program quality (I think that factors in some carryover to account for coaching) but this roster is going to seem like a bag of spare parts.
• The bottom line is we have almost nobody who is a proven producer in the role they will be playing on this team. The only plug and play guy is Boswell (his 107.8 ORtg is lower than our entire starting rotation last year.) Humrichous is solid in terms of past efficiency but he's moving up a tier or two and that may discount him somewhat too.

The real secret sauce for this team is the roster construction. We're going to be able to lean on positional size for defense and 3-point shooting ability for offense along with the elite playmaking skills from KJ. I also think you have a lottery pick in Riley that can just get you a bucket when you need it. Underwood is going to have to coach and scheme really hard to figure out a way to get these guys to play effective defense and stay out of foul trouble. I think we may have the sweetest preseason scrimmage videos that we've ever had but he's basically coaching an Olympic team where the guys are building chemistry from scratch and the rotations are totally undefined. I can't think of a better coach in the country to pull this off (for example, they'd never be able to execute Weber's motion offense without a million turnovers or Self's hard-nosed defense without a million fouls) but it will be an adventure.

 

[djpc]

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[BigWill]

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