It's been a roller coaster of a season with several phases.
Games 1-6: Young team with lots of talent but not sure if we can beat anyone good.
Games 7-18: Alternate "good" and "bad" games where the good might be a 20-point win on the road at an NCAA team and the bad might be a 10-point home loss that's barely Quad 2.
Games 19-28: This team can't field a healthy roster or make a 3-point shot. Every so often flash a decent win but possibly endure a massive beatdown. Lucky to hold on to an NCAA bid.
Games 29-31+: Hey maybe we're good again!
That last phase has seen a resurgence of "Illinois can be a dark horse Final Four team!"
The big problem (IMO) is that we're looking at a brick wall of some of the strongest 1 and 2 seeds that the sport has seen. The top 8 (Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Texas Tech, Michigan State -- sorry St. John's you aren't it) are all +27.52 or greater in KenPom NetRtg. For context, in 2020 when the season ended there was only one team with a NetRtg that high. All four 1 seeds have higher NetRtg values than the average NCAA champion. We have the exact same NetRtg as we did last year (+24.53) after an Elite Eight, except this year we're #18 in KenPom and last year we were #10. So the NCAA Tournament is not wide open. It's a juggernaut at the top.
We're unlikely to get a top-4 seed this year, so we'll likely have to upset a team to get to the Sweet 16. That's my target this postseason. It will feel like a step back after last year but if we can get to the second weekend and overperform our seed in back-to-back seasons that would be a big step forward for the program as a whole. Then we can bring back our foundation and try to build a true juggernaut next year.
Games 1-6: Young team with lots of talent but not sure if we can beat anyone good.
Games 7-18: Alternate "good" and "bad" games where the good might be a 20-point win on the road at an NCAA team and the bad might be a 10-point home loss that's barely Quad 2.
Games 19-28: This team can't field a healthy roster or make a 3-point shot. Every so often flash a decent win but possibly endure a massive beatdown. Lucky to hold on to an NCAA bid.
Games 29-31+: Hey maybe we're good again!
That last phase has seen a resurgence of "Illinois can be a dark horse Final Four team!"
The big problem (IMO) is that we're looking at a brick wall of some of the strongest 1 and 2 seeds that the sport has seen. The top 8 (Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Texas Tech, Michigan State -- sorry St. John's you aren't it) are all +27.52 or greater in KenPom NetRtg. For context, in 2020 when the season ended there was only one team with a NetRtg that high. All four 1 seeds have higher NetRtg values than the average NCAA champion. We have the exact same NetRtg as we did last year (+24.53) after an Elite Eight, except this year we're #18 in KenPom and last year we were #10. So the NCAA Tournament is not wide open. It's a juggernaut at the top.
We're unlikely to get a top-4 seed this year, so we'll likely have to upset a team to get to the Sweet 16. That's my target this postseason. It will feel like a step back after last year but if we can get to the second weekend and overperform our seed in back-to-back seasons that would be a big step forward for the program as a whole. Then we can bring back our foundation and try to build a true juggernaut next year.
