Going out to two decimal places. I put last week's projection, the Pomeroy rankings and the Bart Torvik Tourneycast % after the # of wins just because it's interesting.
1. Michigan State - 13.44 (13.99 , #9, 100%)
2. Maryland - 13.24 (12.84, #10, 100%)
3. Illinois - 12.92 (12.94, #24, 99.3%)
4. Iowa - 12.16 (11.80, #13, 99.9%)
5. Penn State - 11.68 (10.80, #16, 99.9%)
6. Rutgers - 11.18 (11.31, #29, 96.3%)
7. Wisconsin - 11.16 (10.90, #30, 88.9%)
8. Ohio State - 9.88 (9.62, #12, 98.2%)
9. Minnesota - 9.75 (10.03, #38, 35.1%)
10. Purdue - 9.42 (9.70, #28, 51.9%)
11. Michigan - 9.30 (8.29, #25, 87.1%)
12. Indiana - 9.08 (9.84, #41, 73.2%)
13. Nebraska - 3.65 (4.25, #136, 0%)
14. Northwestern - 3.14 (3.69, #120, 0.1%)
*NCAA Tournament Projections: (10-11 bids)
7 Locks (95+%): Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Penn State, Illinois, Ohio State, Rutgers
2 Near-Locks (80-95%): Wisconsin, Michigan
2 Bubble In (51-80%): Indiana, Purdue
1 Bubble Out (25-50%): Minnesota
2 Out (<25%): Nebraska, Northwestern
*Illinois has a clear path to a Big Ten Championship. Win out at home and win at Northwestern and we'll get there at 14-6. Maybe even outright. Easier said than done. Orange Krush needs to be deafening at home and also take over Evanston. We did exactly what we were expected to do and won one game this week. We're expected to split the next two games so I'm asking us to overachieve and sweep.
*If we lose to either Michigan State or Maryland, that team would be considered the favorite to win the conference (if we lose to both then they can duke it out between themselves twice in the back half of the schedule). Generally speaking, Illini fans watching other conference games should root for teams with 6 or more conference losses or the home team if two contenders are playing.
*If you inserted the #29 team in the country into the Big Ten they would be expected to go .500. That's how good this league is. Compare that to the Big 12 (#39), Big East (#43), Pac 12 (#62), SEC (#64), and ACC (#67).
*Assuming Nebraska and Northwestern roll over on the first day of the Big Ten Tournament, the last four days are going to be an all-out war. This would be a great year to earn the double-bye.
*Good week: Michigan, Penn State
Bad week: Indiana, Nebraska
1. Michigan State - 13.44 (13.99 , #9, 100%)
2. Maryland - 13.24 (12.84, #10, 100%)
3. Illinois - 12.92 (12.94, #24, 99.3%)
4. Iowa - 12.16 (11.80, #13, 99.9%)
5. Penn State - 11.68 (10.80, #16, 99.9%)
6. Rutgers - 11.18 (11.31, #29, 96.3%)
7. Wisconsin - 11.16 (10.90, #30, 88.9%)
8. Ohio State - 9.88 (9.62, #12, 98.2%)
9. Minnesota - 9.75 (10.03, #38, 35.1%)
10. Purdue - 9.42 (9.70, #28, 51.9%)
11. Michigan - 9.30 (8.29, #25, 87.1%)
12. Indiana - 9.08 (9.84, #41, 73.2%)
13. Nebraska - 3.65 (4.25, #136, 0%)
14. Northwestern - 3.14 (3.69, #120, 0.1%)
*NCAA Tournament Projections: (10-11 bids)
7 Locks (95+%): Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Penn State, Illinois, Ohio State, Rutgers
2 Near-Locks (80-95%): Wisconsin, Michigan
2 Bubble In (51-80%): Indiana, Purdue
1 Bubble Out (25-50%): Minnesota
2 Out (<25%): Nebraska, Northwestern
*Illinois has a clear path to a Big Ten Championship. Win out at home and win at Northwestern and we'll get there at 14-6. Maybe even outright. Easier said than done. Orange Krush needs to be deafening at home and also take over Evanston. We did exactly what we were expected to do and won one game this week. We're expected to split the next two games so I'm asking us to overachieve and sweep.
*If we lose to either Michigan State or Maryland, that team would be considered the favorite to win the conference (if we lose to both then they can duke it out between themselves twice in the back half of the schedule). Generally speaking, Illini fans watching other conference games should root for teams with 6 or more conference losses or the home team if two contenders are playing.
*If you inserted the #29 team in the country into the Big Ten they would be expected to go .500. That's how good this league is. Compare that to the Big 12 (#39), Big East (#43), Pac 12 (#62), SEC (#64), and ACC (#67).
*Assuming Nebraska and Northwestern roll over on the first day of the Big Ten Tournament, the last four days are going to be an all-out war. This would be a great year to earn the double-bye.
*Good week: Michigan, Penn State
Bad week: Indiana, Nebraska
