Does the committee really care about injuries, etc.? They say that they do but I can't think of mid-season losses being discounted because of that. Those things are lost in the metrics. This year's Illinois team might be one to consider if we really come back 100% healthy in the BTT and play a lot better than when we were missing guys. If we're a 7 seed on merit now but playing like a 2 or 3 seed then that makes things very interesting. I'd make that doubly so if we're in the BTT final and the committee has to figure out what to do with an Illinois team that could be on fire or could shoot 10% from 3 and lose by 20. Feels like a team that could lose a 3/14 game or could go the Final Four as a 6 seed.
Even if Illinois is "Final Four good" in a vacuum, there are teams that will be almost unbeatable. In particular, I am referring to Duke and Auburn. I think we all saw what Duke can do to us. If you look at KenPom NetRtg Duke is +39.08 and Auburn is +37.64. 2005 Illinois was +32.68, which would be 5th place right now. Last year's team (+24.53) would be 18th right now, just a shade higher than our current rank of 19th with a +24.25. This has been emerging all season long but my thesis is that NIL drained the veteran talent from the Cinderella teams and made for more power conference superteams. Couple that with some borderline NBAers returning to school for NIL and top college teams are stronger this year than almost ever before. This was somewhat neutralized by low-major COVID super-seniors and the continuity advantage, but I think that is disappearing rapidly. The talent is rising to the top and the continuity teams like Purdue are starting to fall off. The proof will emerge in the NCAA first round but for me I will go chalk and ride the NIL teams over the low-majors.
The defensive adjustments post-Duke saved our season. Goldin showed that we're still a little light on the post defense, but otherwise Iowa and Michigan really struggled to score on us. We forced some turnovers too. As much as the poor 3-point shooting hurts us on offense, we still have a top-15 offense because the spacing helps our 2-point offense and we can rebound a decent percentage of our 3-point misses. Our offense goes thermonuclear when we hit the 3-pointers but we need the spacing just as much as we need the shooting.
I thought KJ was still hurt, but now I think he just got scouted. He does a lot of stuff with his dribble and I think teams figured a lot of it out. He might have just hit a bit of a freshman wall. Regardless, we've seen benefit from shifting some of his playmaking duties to Riley. I think he's starting to adjust but there is room to grow. If we can get him back into form then he raises the ceiling of this team quite a bit.
I don't know exactly what happened with Boswell and White but they both elevated their games tremendously in the last week. The only thing I still can't figure out is how Boswell is 26-117 (22.2% on high volume) from 3 this year when he went 66-174 (37.9% on even higher volume) last year and also shot 39% as a freshman. It's not even a slump, as the bad shooting has been year-long. I went back over 20 years and I can't find another Illinois player shooting below 25% from 3 on more than 100 attempts. That kind of volume is pretty rare to begin with and nobody else shot below 27%. I just can't fathom either the chucking or the missing. He's playing well despite that but I don't understand how a guy just forgets how to shoot 3's. He shoots over 80% from the free throw line, which usually translates. I bet he kills it from 3 in practice and Underwood must be baffled at what happens during the games.
Tre White at least makes some sense to me, as he's an effort/finisher guy and not a creator. It's hard to have max effort or polish when you can't practice and/or you're feuding with coaches. He only shoots 30% from 3 but when he's open in the corner his shot looks pure. Tre is super valuable to this team but his game is more dependent on his teammates. I feel good about him going forward.
Riley has hit a bit of a shooting slump from 3 but the rest of his game looks amazing. I'm just hoping that we get one NCAA Tournament game out of this guy when he goes Super Saiyan mode and wins it single-handedly before he goes to the NBA and kills it for 10 years. I'm hoping that some donor decides to back up the Brinks truck if he's not a lottery pick so we can convince him to come back for one more year. Having a PG who is a long 6'8" is a very dangerous thing. I just need to see him obliterate someone. I'd even take it in a 3rd matchup with Michigan State in the BTT.
Speaking of the BTT, I want to play Michigan again. Seriously felt like we could have replayed yesterday's game 10 times and won 9 or 10 of them. That team is not one of the best 6 teams in the Big Ten. It's going to be wild looking at that bracket when we beat 6 of the teams by 20+ points and lost to 7 of the others. I'm not even sure the matchups really mattered as much as which Illinois team showed up that day.
I'm really curious to see what version of Morez Johnson we see on the floor next. Does he just go out there with a cast on and play with one arm? Will he be able to rebound and dunk? Will he be able to shoot at all? Is he basically coming back at 100%? Do we ease him in at 70% in limited minutes or is it just all or nothing? I think even 5 fouls and a big body can be useful for this team, but he was our best player when he got hurt.
I don't really care about big picture stuff with this team any more. I just like seeing them destroy people. Yesterday was the first time I really saw them play with an edge and it was so much fun. I want to see this team play its best ball just because it's fun to watch when things are going well and eyes-bleeding painful when it's not. I have that "go 1-0" mentality right now. Purdue is next up and I just want to see Boswell lock down Braeden Smith and us out-rebound them by 15 to the point where they know they have no chance at victory. I want to hear Matt Painter talk about how they can't match up with our roster. That will make me smile.
Even if Illinois is "Final Four good" in a vacuum, there are teams that will be almost unbeatable. In particular, I am referring to Duke and Auburn. I think we all saw what Duke can do to us. If you look at KenPom NetRtg Duke is +39.08 and Auburn is +37.64. 2005 Illinois was +32.68, which would be 5th place right now. Last year's team (+24.53) would be 18th right now, just a shade higher than our current rank of 19th with a +24.25. This has been emerging all season long but my thesis is that NIL drained the veteran talent from the Cinderella teams and made for more power conference superteams. Couple that with some borderline NBAers returning to school for NIL and top college teams are stronger this year than almost ever before. This was somewhat neutralized by low-major COVID super-seniors and the continuity advantage, but I think that is disappearing rapidly. The talent is rising to the top and the continuity teams like Purdue are starting to fall off. The proof will emerge in the NCAA first round but for me I will go chalk and ride the NIL teams over the low-majors.
The defensive adjustments post-Duke saved our season. Goldin showed that we're still a little light on the post defense, but otherwise Iowa and Michigan really struggled to score on us. We forced some turnovers too. As much as the poor 3-point shooting hurts us on offense, we still have a top-15 offense because the spacing helps our 2-point offense and we can rebound a decent percentage of our 3-point misses. Our offense goes thermonuclear when we hit the 3-pointers but we need the spacing just as much as we need the shooting.
I thought KJ was still hurt, but now I think he just got scouted. He does a lot of stuff with his dribble and I think teams figured a lot of it out. He might have just hit a bit of a freshman wall. Regardless, we've seen benefit from shifting some of his playmaking duties to Riley. I think he's starting to adjust but there is room to grow. If we can get him back into form then he raises the ceiling of this team quite a bit.
I don't know exactly what happened with Boswell and White but they both elevated their games tremendously in the last week. The only thing I still can't figure out is how Boswell is 26-117 (22.2% on high volume) from 3 this year when he went 66-174 (37.9% on even higher volume) last year and also shot 39% as a freshman. It's not even a slump, as the bad shooting has been year-long. I went back over 20 years and I can't find another Illinois player shooting below 25% from 3 on more than 100 attempts. That kind of volume is pretty rare to begin with and nobody else shot below 27%. I just can't fathom either the chucking or the missing. He's playing well despite that but I don't understand how a guy just forgets how to shoot 3's. He shoots over 80% from the free throw line, which usually translates. I bet he kills it from 3 in practice and Underwood must be baffled at what happens during the games.
Tre White at least makes some sense to me, as he's an effort/finisher guy and not a creator. It's hard to have max effort or polish when you can't practice and/or you're feuding with coaches. He only shoots 30% from 3 but when he's open in the corner his shot looks pure. Tre is super valuable to this team but his game is more dependent on his teammates. I feel good about him going forward.
Riley has hit a bit of a shooting slump from 3 but the rest of his game looks amazing. I'm just hoping that we get one NCAA Tournament game out of this guy when he goes Super Saiyan mode and wins it single-handedly before he goes to the NBA and kills it for 10 years. I'm hoping that some donor decides to back up the Brinks truck if he's not a lottery pick so we can convince him to come back for one more year. Having a PG who is a long 6'8" is a very dangerous thing. I just need to see him obliterate someone. I'd even take it in a 3rd matchup with Michigan State in the BTT.
Speaking of the BTT, I want to play Michigan again. Seriously felt like we could have replayed yesterday's game 10 times and won 9 or 10 of them. That team is not one of the best 6 teams in the Big Ten. It's going to be wild looking at that bracket when we beat 6 of the teams by 20+ points and lost to 7 of the others. I'm not even sure the matchups really mattered as much as which Illinois team showed up that day.
I'm really curious to see what version of Morez Johnson we see on the floor next. Does he just go out there with a cast on and play with one arm? Will he be able to rebound and dunk? Will he be able to shoot at all? Is he basically coming back at 100%? Do we ease him in at 70% in limited minutes or is it just all or nothing? I think even 5 fouls and a big body can be useful for this team, but he was our best player when he got hurt.
I don't really care about big picture stuff with this team any more. I just like seeing them destroy people. Yesterday was the first time I really saw them play with an edge and it was so much fun. I want to see this team play its best ball just because it's fun to watch when things are going well and eyes-bleeding painful when it's not. I have that "go 1-0" mentality right now. Purdue is next up and I just want to see Boswell lock down Braeden Smith and us out-rebound them by 15 to the point where they know they have no chance at victory. I want to hear Matt Painter talk about how they can't match up with our roster. That will make me smile.
