KenPom doesn't know about the suspension and has us as 10 point favorites tonight. Vegas says 5.5. So let's assume TSJ is worth 4.5 ppg. What does that do to our season projections?
As of right now, we're projected to go 14-6 in the Big Ten. We have 1 win and in the next 19 games we're expected to have 12.96 more wins. That projects to something like a 3 seed.
If I lower the predicted margins on every game by ~4.5 points, that puts us at 10.52 wins in the next 19 games, so either an 11-9 or 12-8 conference finish. That projects to something like a 7 seed.
So we've likely gone from a T-2 finish in the Big Ten, a 3 seed, and a likely Sweet 16 run to a 5th place finish in conference, a 7 seed, and a likely R32 loss.
It's a blow but it's not program-defining like I had feared. Just really a bummer because we need that Sweet 16 and we were on track.
If TSJ were to somehow return on Feb 1st, then the impact is not too bad and maybe we can still make that run.
Anyway, that's what an All-American is worth.
As of right now, we're projected to go 14-6 in the Big Ten. We have 1 win and in the next 19 games we're expected to have 12.96 more wins. That projects to something like a 3 seed.
If I lower the predicted margins on every game by ~4.5 points, that puts us at 10.52 wins in the next 19 games, so either an 11-9 or 12-8 conference finish. That projects to something like a 7 seed.
So we've likely gone from a T-2 finish in the Big Ten, a 3 seed, and a likely Sweet 16 run to a 5th place finish in conference, a 7 seed, and a likely R32 loss.
It's a blow but it's not program-defining like I had feared. Just really a bummer because we need that Sweet 16 and we were on track.
If TSJ were to somehow return on Feb 1st, then the impact is not too bad and maybe we can still make that run.
Anyway, that's what an All-American is worth.
