THREE REASONS WHY ILLINOIS WILL MAKE A DEEP RUN IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT
1. Two-headed monster
Nearly every team that makes a deep run in the tournament has a go-to, star player; a dude who can go get you a bucket when you need it. Well, Illinois has two, and their complimentary skill sets are a challenge for opposing defenses.
Illinois can play and win at multiple speeds, so their success or failure in the tournament won’t be as dependent on matchups as in previous years. If Illinois can speed teams up, Terrence Shannon Jr. is a freight train in the open court. If they slow it down, Marcus Domask can back smaller defenders down and score in the paint.
2. The choke factor
Tournament experience is very valuable in March Madness. It’s usually on its second try that an upstart team makes its run, rather than the first go around. Young players play more than ever in college basketball, but the stage still becomes too big at times.
Shannon and Coleman Hawkins have been-there-done-that. And while Domask and Guerrier haven’t played in the NCAA Tournament, they have both been around the block a few times. This team won’t lay an egg. They are wise enough to know not to change from what got them there.
3. Big Ten culture shock
If the Iowa game is any indication, Illinois is back playing with the physicality and edge that helped them dominate on the glass and lock teams down defensively early in the season. Oddly, that defensive intensity took a vacation. Hopefully, it’s back for good. Quincy Guerrier’s rebounding returned, and that’s good news heading into post season.
The Big Ten is still a physical conference, and that has actually hurt its teams in NCAA Tournament games because of quick-whistle officiating. But if they let them play this year, the Illini’s physical presence on the glass could be a shock for opponents in the first couple of rounds.
THREE REAONS WHY THEY WON’T
1. Backcourt battles
While it might be a dead horse at this point, it’s still a factor. Illinois does not have a true point guard. That deficiency will stand out like a sore thumb in the NCAA Tournament, where the importance of guard play is always enhanced.
So, why do guards rule the roost in the Big Dance. In a win-or-go-home scenario, every teams brings it’s A-game on defense. There are no truly bad teams in the tournament, and they all come to compete. Ball pressure impacts ball security and freedom of movement. Illinois has a -2.41 turnover margin, ranking 13th in the Big Ten.
2. Closing time
The Illini’s inability to close games against high level opponents became a trend in the second half of the season. The first signs of trouble were in the 87-84 win over Nebraska on Feb. 4 when Illinois blew a 10-point lead with three minutes to go in regulation.
The next time it happened they weren’t so lucky. In its worst loss of the season, the Illini allowed Penn State to rally from a 7-point deficit in the final 36 seconds to win 90-89. You don’t feel quite as bad letting Purdue rally late in its win at State Farm Center, but it was another late collapse.
As we all know, the NCAA Tournament is a parade of possession games late. The Illini better find a way to close.
3. Communication breakdown
Brad Underwood went on and on about “scouting report mistakes” on defense the last couple of months. What is he talking about? Not matching up with Payton Sandfort when he spots up for 3’s on the secondary break. Going under screens against Boo Buie. Letting Jhamir Young continuously go left. Etc. etc.
It’s largely about communication. Illinois got complacent (and quiet) on the defensive end. They weren’t calling out ball screens and were often not getting to their spots in the rotation. Big Ten teams shot 39% from three against Illinois. NCAA Tournament teams have shot makers. Fair to communicate, and they will send Illinois home early.
1. Two-headed monster
Nearly every team that makes a deep run in the tournament has a go-to, star player; a dude who can go get you a bucket when you need it. Well, Illinois has two, and their complimentary skill sets are a challenge for opposing defenses.
Illinois can play and win at multiple speeds, so their success or failure in the tournament won’t be as dependent on matchups as in previous years. If Illinois can speed teams up, Terrence Shannon Jr. is a freight train in the open court. If they slow it down, Marcus Domask can back smaller defenders down and score in the paint.
2. The choke factor
Tournament experience is very valuable in March Madness. It’s usually on its second try that an upstart team makes its run, rather than the first go around. Young players play more than ever in college basketball, but the stage still becomes too big at times.
Shannon and Coleman Hawkins have been-there-done-that. And while Domask and Guerrier haven’t played in the NCAA Tournament, they have both been around the block a few times. This team won’t lay an egg. They are wise enough to know not to change from what got them there.
3. Big Ten culture shock
If the Iowa game is any indication, Illinois is back playing with the physicality and edge that helped them dominate on the glass and lock teams down defensively early in the season. Oddly, that defensive intensity took a vacation. Hopefully, it’s back for good. Quincy Guerrier’s rebounding returned, and that’s good news heading into post season.
The Big Ten is still a physical conference, and that has actually hurt its teams in NCAA Tournament games because of quick-whistle officiating. But if they let them play this year, the Illini’s physical presence on the glass could be a shock for opponents in the first couple of rounds.
THREE REAONS WHY THEY WON’T
1. Backcourt battles
While it might be a dead horse at this point, it’s still a factor. Illinois does not have a true point guard. That deficiency will stand out like a sore thumb in the NCAA Tournament, where the importance of guard play is always enhanced.
So, why do guards rule the roost in the Big Dance. In a win-or-go-home scenario, every teams brings it’s A-game on defense. There are no truly bad teams in the tournament, and they all come to compete. Ball pressure impacts ball security and freedom of movement. Illinois has a -2.41 turnover margin, ranking 13th in the Big Ten.
2. Closing time
The Illini’s inability to close games against high level opponents became a trend in the second half of the season. The first signs of trouble were in the 87-84 win over Nebraska on Feb. 4 when Illinois blew a 10-point lead with three minutes to go in regulation.
The next time it happened they weren’t so lucky. In its worst loss of the season, the Illini allowed Penn State to rally from a 7-point deficit in the final 36 seconds to win 90-89. You don’t feel quite as bad letting Purdue rally late in its win at State Farm Center, but it was another late collapse.
As we all know, the NCAA Tournament is a parade of possession games late. The Illini better find a way to close.
3. Communication breakdown
Brad Underwood went on and on about “scouting report mistakes” on defense the last couple of months. What is he talking about? Not matching up with Payton Sandfort when he spots up for 3’s on the secondary break. Going under screens against Boo Buie. Letting Jhamir Young continuously go left. Etc. etc.
It’s largely about communication. Illinois got complacent (and quiet) on the defensive end. They weren’t calling out ball screens and were often not getting to their spots in the rotation. Big Ten teams shot 39% from three against Illinois. NCAA Tournament teams have shot makers. Fair to communicate, and they will send Illinois home early.
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