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Helluva year

dtrain79 said:
You are literally city a "study" from the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (an obvious left wing outlet desirous of coming to a specific result) assessing a "basket of American dream essentials." Lolol. Literally every economic indicator has improved for Americans across the board. Those are credibly advocate for "low earners" don't argue they aren't better off today than they were at basically any point in the past, their main argument is in fact that income inequality has meant their improvement trails the upper/upper middle classes' improvement. The point I am making is not in dispute, it's accepted by vritually every single credible person who understands economics.

If you don't understand you are getting played like a sucker for citing this, that's a you problem. You got the usual idiots liking a kind of post they would have laughed at (correctly) a decade back when the GOP wasn't run by a con artist who venerates a working class that has over time become economically better off but socially worse off (the latter due to poor individual decision making).

Every person who actually understands economics and overall economic performance agrees with me. But yet again, my position attempts to assess the actual economic condition of Americans, not press idiotic political points.

This chain is far beyond help, kinda like the GOP. Gonna have to go back to giving it the amount of time it deserves.

But hey, let's go back to the 1200 square foot house and one car average. Americans are going to love that.

Before I leave, I have to give you yet another dose of reality about inflation-adjusted household income. The AVERAGE/MEDIAN (dead middle) American household is about 22K better off today than it was in 1984 (again, this is adjusted for inflation). This is a nearly 40% increase in purchasing power (it's probably a bit more complex than that, but that's a huge improvement in the standard of living). This is not in dispute.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Real Median Household Income in the United States

View the inflation-adjusted value of the 50th percentile of the U.S. income distribution, as estimated by the Census Bureau.
fred.stlouisfed.org

Gotta say one more thing because you mentioned it. In every society, there's a portion of the population that struggles. That is a part of the human condition. The goal is to limit that portion, and modern America is incredible at this for a large, diverse country with all sorts. And it's largely because the dynamic free market offers more opportunity than most other countries, which is beneficial (to varying degrees) to everyone.

Peace!
Click to expand...

Take up your argument with CBS. It just happened to pop up on my yahoo feed.

The goal is great, but the plan is not working. If it was, we wouldn’t have record homelessness.

I will say, the % of working poor has decreased in recent years. Post Obama, it’s been good. But the labor force participation rate dropped, so some of those “working poor” might have just stopped working.
 
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dtrain79 said:
You are literally city a "study" from the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (an obvious left wing outlet desirous of coming to a specific result) assessing a "basket of American dream essentials." Lolol. Literally every economic indicator has improved for Americans across the board. Those are credibly advocate for "low earners" don't argue they aren't better off today than they were at basically any point in the past, their main argument is in fact that income inequality has meant their improvement trails the upper/upper middle classes' improvement. The point I am making is not in dispute, it's accepted by vritually every single credible person who understands economics.

If you don't understand you are getting played like a sucker for citing this, that's a you problem. You got the usual idiots liking a kind of post they would have laughed at (correctly) a decade back when the GOP wasn't run by a con artist who venerates a working class that has over time become economically better off but socially worse off (the latter due to poor individual decision making).

Every person who actually understands economics and overall economic performance agrees with me. But yet again, my position attempts to assess the actual economic condition of Americans, not press idiotic political points.

This chain is far beyond help, kinda like the GOP. Gonna have to go back to giving it the amount of time it deserves.

But hey, let's go back to the 1200 square foot house and one car average. Americans are going to love that.

Before I leave, I have to give you yet another dose of reality about inflation-adjusted household income. The AVERAGE/MEDIAN (dead middle) American household is about 22K better off today than it was in 1984 (again, this is adjusted for inflation). This is a nearly 40% increase in purchasing power (it's probably a bit more complex than that, but that's a huge improvement in the standard of living). This is not in dispute.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Real Median Household Income in the United States

View the inflation-adjusted value of the 50th percentile of the U.S. income distribution, as estimated by the Census Bureau.
fred.stlouisfed.org

Gotta say one more thing because you mentioned it. In every society, there's a portion of the population that struggles. That is a part of the human condition. The goal is to limit that portion, and modern America is incredible at this for a large, diverse country with all sorts. And it's largely because the dynamic free market offers more opportunity than most other countries, which is beneficial (to varying degrees) to everyone.

Peace!
Click to expand...

How much more are people paying for housing and healthcare compared to 40 years ago? The average cost of a home has tripled over that same time period.

Monthly premiums for families were around $200/mo in 1985. Now it's about $2,000/mo.

Child care, education skyrocketed. I could go on.

40% doesn't seem to be keeping up with the cost of necessities. The well off do very well here. A significant part of the country struggles to pay rising bills.

You’re right, it’s more complex than that. Not a bit, a lot. I do understand your point though. We do still have it great here overall.
 
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rillaman said:
Take up your argument with CBS.

The goal is great, but the plan is not working. If it was, we wouldn’t have record homelessness.

I will say, the % of working poor has decreased in recent years. Post Obama, it’s been good. But the labor force participation rate dropped, so some of those “working poor” might have just stopped working.
Click to expand...

I mean, I thought you identified why "homelessness" went up last year, we let in a number of poor, non-American migrants. What does that have to do with economic performance beyond those people thinking it's better to be in the USA than Venezuela or Honduras? Obviously that's going to be self-correcting fairly quickly (people will be deported or get jobs and find a place to live).

When I think of homelessness, I think of the tent city types of people. Setting aside the terrible public policies that have allowed those things, they are basically organized groups of a problem that has remained fairly consistent in size relative to the population for 30 plus years. Because persistent homelessness is a feature of mental illness/drug abuse. I doubt the number of persistent homeless people has been that different over time.

In terms of labor force participation, it's about .5% off the all time high among working age adults. You may be getting data from those who want to make a false point, because as more people retire, it goes down among the entire population. You need to look at working age.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs.

Graph and download economic data for Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs. (LNS11300060) from Jan 1948 to Apr 2025 about 25 to 54 years, participation, civilian, labor force, labor, household survey, rate, and USA.
fred.stlouisfed.org

You are right about the lower income wages, they have generally outpaced higher income wages in the past decade. Largely because we have been in a fairly tight labor market.
 
rillaman said:
How much more are people paying for housing and healthcare compared to 40 years ago? The average cost of a home has tripled over that same time period.

Monthly premiums for families were around $200/mo in 1985. Now it's about $2,000/mo.

40% doesn't seem to be keeping up with the cost of necessities.

You’re right, it’s more complex than that. Not a bit, a lot.
Click to expand...

Housing is super, super complex. First, regardless of income, if you own a house and prices rise, you are a winner. If you don't, you lose until you buy (and then the opposite occurs). So right there you should probably be very circumspect about specific claims on housing costs. In addition, if Americans spend 100% more on housing that is 100% larger, housing costs didn't actually go up. Consumer choice went for more luxury (which is likely the big part of the increase in "housing costs" over time). If you and I would like, we could both find a super cheap 1,200 square foot house in Rock Island, the one double in size would cost much more.

Yes, healthcare costs are up. And costs for food are down. THAT'S WHY THE GODDAMN INFORMATION I CITE ADJUSTS FOR INFLATION. If one shopped purely for HC, then the 40% increase wouldn't go as far (you probably would be behind where you were in 1984). However, that 40% might be 2x the amount of food it did in 1984 (food inflation has been minimal). I shouldn't have to explain what adjusting for inflation means, because inflation actually takes into account the price of all goods. Some people - due to what the consume - won't have gained 40% in purchasing power; some will have gained far more than 40% because they are consuming goods that didn't inflate much at all.

Maybe I will try to explain this better. In 2023 terms, the average household made $81K. In 1984, the average household didn't make $58K, it probably made like $20-30K (the extra $28-38K add on to get to the $58K inflation adjusted number was the increase in cost of goods over time, the adjustment for inflation).

Let's boil this down. I actually understand and can explain what I'm citing to. There's a reason for that. Because I read and understand it from places that aren't manipulating numbers for political reasons. That's a big start. Once you kill the politics, this is so much easier.
 
rillaman said:
www.cbsnews.com

Most Americans can't afford a $1,000 emergency expense, report finds

Nearly 60% of Americans don't have enough money put away to handle common financial emergencies, according to Bankrate.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com

We hear these stats regularly in my world
Click to expand...

If this kind of stuff were an actual reality, we'd have a massive bankuptcy rate in our very debtor friendly system. The median net worth of American households is about $200K. Just Google it, it's all over.

Btw, this should be considerably higher. We are terrible savers here and frankly overconsume (I guess there's your pro-tariff argument haha).

Living "paycheck to paycheck" is often a specific choice. Sure, you and I agree that a segment of the poor/working poor actually do. Those in the middle class (and often UMC) who do it are making the voluntary decision to save by virtue of the government retirement program.

Interestingly, and I'm not good enough with the economics theory to give this explanation, our actual policies disincentivize young savers and incentivize old spenders, which is a big contributor to a low savings rate in the country. But we've made the choice to be that, despite having huge material advantages in income/wealth over other countries.
 
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dtrain79 said:
Yet another depiction of the explosion of INFLATION-ADJUSTED American incomes in the past three generations.

Click to expand...

I will say, I knew the article I shared was slanted. It was just timely. I think you and I share a lot of the same beliefs on where the USA is compared to other countries. In general, we do have it better here. There will always be people that are struggling, though we might disagree on ways to lift people up.

Also, articles like that are shared as fact every day. Always reminded to not believe everything you read or see on TV.
 
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rillaman said:
I will say, I knew the article I shared was slanted. It was just timely. I think you and I share a lot of the same beliefs on where the USA is compared to other countries. In general, we do have it better here. There will always be people that are struggling, though we might disagree on ways to lift people up.

Also, articles like that are shared as fact every day. Always reminded to not believe everything you read or see on TV.
Click to expand...

Well you certainly are getting my point.

In the fall, The Economist (which I consider the single most credible publication on Earth regarding the world and global markets) did an awesome issue on American economic muscle. It's just that our political elites - and a lot of the media infrastructures supporting both sides - aren't operating in reality or in good faith (or both).

www.economist.com

The envy of the world | Oct 19th 2024 | The Economist

The envy of the world. Special reports from The Economist. You've seen the news, now discover the story.
www.economist.com www.economist.com

But if someone doesn't like The Economist, this is the statistic to sum things up. The median black American is now earning an income in excess of the median European. That's staggering. It also says a lot about why American has such an immigration issue. ;)
 
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rillaman said:
How much more are people paying for housing and healthcare compared to 40 years ago? The average cost of a home has tripled over that same time period.

Monthly premiums for families were around $200/mo in 1985. Now it's about $2,000/mo.

Child care, education skyrocketed. I could go on.

40% doesn't seem to be keeping up with the cost of necessities. The well off do very well here. A significant part of the country struggles to pay rising bills.

You’re right, it’s more complex than that. Not a bit, a lot. I do understand your point though. We do still have it great here overall.
Click to expand...

Let's be clear on a couple of things. First, a huge part of "increased housing cost" is increased housing space. But that's not an important point. (Housing price rises basically advantage the old, disadvantage the young.)

While some items have increased considerably on an inflation adjusted basis, others like food, the price of your car, standard technology, and so on have decreased relative to inflation. The inflation rate takes everything together and gets you a number of actual increased cost based on population-wide usage of such goods. Education went up, your car went down (damn good trade for the working class). Healthcare went up, food went down (damn good trade for the young, bad trade for the old). Overall, prices generally rise, but some rise a lot, some rise very little, and even some drop over time.

Use the collective measure.

I do think you can quibble with the argument that Americans have exactly 40% more purchasing power. It might be 25%, it might be 50%. But it's definitely a lot more. Americans overconsumed education because of cheap loans (and the whole system artificially inflated the price), the market is responding (education is arguably the most luxury of luxury goods, at least up there with travel).
 
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dtrain79 said:
If this kind of stuff were an actual reality, we'd have a massive bankuptcy rate in our very debtor friendly system. The median net worth of American households is about $200K. Just Google it, it's all over.

Btw, this should be considerably higher. We are terrible savers here and frankly overconsume (I guess there's your pro-tariff argument haha).

Living "paycheck to paycheck" is often a specific choice. Sure, you and I agree that a segment of the poor/working poor actually do. Those in the middle class (and often UMC) who do it are making the voluntary decision to save by virtue of the government retirement program.

Interestingly, and I'm not good enough with the economics theory to give this explanation, our actual policies disincentivize young savers and incentivize old spenders, which is a big contributor to a low savings rate in the country. But we've made the choice to be that, despite having huge material advantages in income/wealth over other countries.
Click to expand...
I agree with you: QUOTE ! "I'm not good enough with economics theory..."

See you...
 
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BigWill said:
I hope he has something to do on Wednesday !

Can he practice sand shots ?
Click to expand...
Wednesday

Signs $ 200,000,000,000 Billion dollar deal with Qatar to buy Boeing planes !

Largest order in Boeing's History !

Bye the bye; If he can accept their replacement AF 1 plane from Qatar valued at $ 400,000,000 Million.
Trump SAVES US taxpayers 4- 6 Billion for a new plane from Boeing to replace AF 1 that is about 40 years old.

Boeing is estimating the new AF 1 plane to be delivered in 2029 !

Oops: I posted too soon ! The President has secured a further $ 43,000,000,000 Billion in Qatar !

No golf !

Thursday: Ukraine - Soviet Peace ?
 
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BigWill said:
I agree with you: QUOTE ! "I'm not good enough with economics theory..."

See you...
Click to expand...

Do you want me to keep insulting you? What's the point in that? The limitations I have in understanding the world are miniscule to the ones you have, because my dude I'm a helluva lot smarter than you.

That's a terrible way to argue or engage with another person. But when all you have are insults, that's what you are gonna get.

I have no idea why you feel the need to do this. Americans are much better off today than they were in your heyday. More income, better health outcomes, less crime (yes, significantly less crime), more consumer choice, greater longevity, and so on. This isn't me speculating, it's absolute fact no what MAGA influencers tell you to think. I personally liked the GOP better when it operated in reality, but obviously many disagree with that. Disappointing to me, alas.

There are things that are worse. Higher out of wedlock birth rate (tho it's stabilized), lower church attendance (it's just become obvious that church is a huge plus for many people), and whatever the Internet does to people's brains.

The GOP used to believe in American greatness, American exceptionalism. Some Trump acolytes on here (looking at TJ) definitely still do. But they seem to fail to recognize that venerating a guy whose movement tells us how crappy America has become sure isn't extolling American greatness.

Again, I shouldn't be wasting my time on this.
 
dtrain79 said:
Do you want me to keep insulting you? What's the point in that? The limitations I have in understanding the world are miniscule to the ones you have, because my dude I'm a helluva lot smarter than you.

That's a terrible way to argue or engage with another person. But when all you have are insults, that's what you are gonna get.

I have no idea why you feel the need to do this. Americans are much better off today than they were in your heyday. More income, better health outcomes, less crime (yes, significantly less crime), more consumer choice, greater longevity, and so on. This isn't me speculating, it's absolute fact no what MAGA influencers tell you to think. I personally liked the GOP better when it operated in reality, but obviously many disagree with that. Disappointing to me, alas.

There are things that are worse. Higher out of wedlock birth rate (tho it's stabilized), lower church attendance (it's just become obvious that church is a huge plus for many people), and whatever the Internet does to people's brains.

The GOP used to believe in American greatness, American exceptionalism. Some Trump acolytes on here (looking at TJ) definitely still do. But they seem to fail to recognize that venerating a guy whose movement tells us how crappy America has become sure isn't extolling American greatness.

Again, I shouldn't be wasting my time on this.
Click to expand...
You fooled me, here I took your 2 posts saying goodbye to be truthful.

I don't need to outsmart or insult your posts !

I only have to QUOTE your diatribes !
 
BigWill said:
You fooled me, here I took your 2 posts saying goodbye to be truthful.

I don't need to outsmart or insult your posts !

I only have to QUOTE your diatribes !
Click to expand...

Yes, understanding one's limitations is a sign of intelligence. You problem is that you don't understand yours are windbag stories no one has ever given a damn about. Those are far more fun that the "MAGA 4eva" jackassery we see.
 
dtrain79 said:
Yes, understanding one's limitations is a sign of intelligence. You problem is that you don't understand yours are windbag stories no one has ever given a damn about. Those are far more fun that the "MAGA 4eva" jackassery we see.
Click to expand...
Yet here I am with over 28,000 + reactions, on 48,000 + posts/stories.

Can't stay away can you !

Check your sports coats for wear on the shoulders as you pat yourself on the back.

Here's a story about sports coats !

Dad's Uncle Ewing set him up with an account at Langrocks on Nassau Street, Princeton, the legendary "Preppy Look" men's clothing store ! He tried to bribe me to attend Princeton, by volunteering to open an account for me ! I declined to attend any Ivy !
Yes, I had the Grades AND the SAT scores ! Where did you undergrad again !

The week I headed down to UNC from Manlius he took me to the men's clothing store in Syracuse !

Here's what I some of what I showed up for freshman at UNC.
3 Harris Tweed sports coats, 2 herring bone, 1 navy blue.
3 pairs of gray slacks.
6 white oxford cloth shirts. (No monograms, no time. Now my 18 white shirts from Saks made to measure are all monogrammed.)
3 striped rep silk ties.
Various underwear, socks, curb breaker shoes.

NO jeans, NO sneakers, NO colored/printed t shirts.

NB: When I came back for X-Mas Dad asked if I needed any more clothing ?
I told him I needed a Tux ! He looked at me like I was of low IQ.

Now I do have a Tux in my closet, made to measure at Saks !

But still NO jeans !
 
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AzIllini said:
President Newsome. He is "freezing" access by illegals to california's medicaid program effective 1/1/2026. Except by then there will not be any new applicants thanks to Trump. Lots of announcements recently from Newsome .....

www.foxnews.com

Newsom proposes freeze on allowing adult illegal immigrants to join California's Medicaid program

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is proposing freezing undocumented adult enrollment in full-scope Medi-Cal, the state's Medicaid program.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
Click to expand...
Tent sales drop in Callie !
 
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AzIllini said:
President Newsome. He is "freezing" access by illegals to california's medicaid program effective 1/1/2026. Except by then there will not be any new applicants thanks to Trump. Lots of announcements recently from Newsome .....

www.foxnews.com

Newsom proposes freeze on allowing adult illegal immigrants to join California's Medicaid program

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is proposing freezing undocumented adult enrollment in full-scope Medi-Cal, the state's Medicaid program.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
Click to expand...
Newsome & Pritzker jockeying for the big race. Boy, Crockette is going to be pissed!
 
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stoneaxe27 said:
For himself of course!
Click to expand...
497461880_1019537316936881_8333212057707116783_n.jpg
 
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At this rate, Jeff is never going to return. With Trump producing 3T plus in investments from SA, Qatar, and UAE in addition to the PPI defying forecasts by the experts Jeff will just have to enjoy a great Trump retirement. Hope that fixed income is doing its job



 
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stoneaxe27 said:
For himself of course!
Click to expand...
READ entire posts of various news sites. You could get MORE intelligent !

For example; The Boeing plane order was the LARGEST jet plane order in the companies HISTORY !

The Qatar Emir's # 1 Wifes purchase at 7 - 9 E 72. St had as her competition for the property (combined they are the LARGEST single family residence in NYC.).....Donald Trump. (Just trivia for all.). He uses it 2 weeks a year, when Heads of State are at the UN.

Uncle Ewing's townhouse that he had built on 43 E 70 St, is now the home of the Qatar Ambassador to the UN.
 
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tjfleck6 said:
At this rate, Jeff is never going to return. With Trump producing 3T plus in investments from SA, Qatar, and UAE in addition to the PPI defying forecasts by the experts Jeff will just have to enjoy a great Trump retirement. Hope that fixed income is doing its job



View embedded media
Click to expand...
When the Fed is forced by Economic conditions ! ( Sorry Drano, this I understand.) to lower interest rates , his fixed income vehicles will tank in valuation.

It's called "the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond pricing"...

Which is only a problem if he has a personal financial issue, which forces sale of the fixed income at their reduced value OR the fixed income vehicles get sold and re-issued at the lower interest rates.
 
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rillaman said:
I'm sure all of the experts predicted this
Click to expand...

Just for context, the US ran about a $210B surplus in April 2024. All this really indicates is that 2024 was pretty good economically and more taxes are owed lol.

It looks like tariffs produced about $8B in extra revenue for the month relative to last year. Say they brought in $100B in extra revenue for the year, that's a "massive" 10% of the roughly $1T annual budget deficit.

Look, the budget deficit is not a Trump issue. He didn't pass any entitlement programs. But both parties are going to need to reform entitlements to eliminate this deficit, there's no tinkering around the edges that actually works.
 
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I wish these X posters would spare some of the hyperbole. While he has information some don't, there are others who will say what he says, including Scott Jennings.

 
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