For anyone interested in some good non-partisan assessment of the Canadian election.
Race Gaps Narrow, Education Divide Widens in U.S. and Canadian Elections
Zachary Donnini, Decision Desk HQ Data Scientist
The 2024 U.S. presidential election and the 2025 Canadian federal election both upended traditional voting coalitions. In each country, racial polarization eased as conservative candidates made unexpected gains among minority voters. At the same time, educational divides grew sharper, with left-of-center parties shoring up support among college-educated urbanites. The parallel trends – Donald Trump’s inroads with Hispanic and Asian Americans in the U.S., and Canada’s Conservatives surging in immigrant-rich suburbs – reveal a striking realignment: depolarization by race but deepening splits by education.
United States 2024
Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign made major inroads with non-white voters, especially Hispanics and Asians. According to estimates from exit polls, he won 46% of Hispanics (up 14% from 2020) and 39% of Asian Americans (up 5% from 2020), reaching GOP highs not seen in decades. These shifts are similar to what analysts have found using ecological inference methods to analyze precinct results, estimating that Trump won 47% of Hispanics (up 10% from 2020) and 42% of Asian Americans (up 9% from 2020). While the magnitude of these shifts differ by method, the general theme is the same.
These gains were concentrated in working-class, urban areas. In counties where Hispanics make up over 20% of the population, Trump improved by 13 points. He flipped Nassau County (NY) and cut into Democratic margins in diverse areas from the Rio Grande Valley to Los Angeles. Nationally, Democrats’ share in major urban counties dropped by 5 points.
Meanwhile, college-educated suburbs held firm for Democrats. Harris matched Biden’s 2020 performance among degree-holders, winning 55%, while Trump’s support surged to 56% among non-college voters. The result was a political landscape less divided by race, but more polarized by education and class than ever before. These trends have been building since 2016, when Trump's gains with working-class voters highlighted increasing educational polarization, and accelerated in 2020 with his breakthroughs with Hispanic voters in Miami and South Texas. In 2024, these dynamics grew even deeper.
Canada 2025
A similar pattern unfolded in Canada’s 2025 federal election. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre made major gains in suburban Toronto ridings with large Asian immigrant populations, long seen as Liberal strongholds. In York Region north of Toronto, the Conservatives flipped five seats, including Markham–Unionville and Richmond Hill, both home to significant Chinese and South Asian communities. In newly created Richmond Hill South, Vincent Ho defeated a three-term Liberal by 8 points, while Costas Menegakis won nearby Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill by 10. Even in the heavily South Asian Peel Region, ridings like Brampton West turned blue. These results marked a clear shift toward the Conservatives among immigrant and working-class voters, echoing GOP gains in similar U.S. communities.
But the Liberals held firm in white, educated urban centers. Downtown and midtown Toronto remained solidly Liberal, with the party reclaiming Toronto–St. Paul’s from the Conservatives. In Ottawa, urban ridings stayed red, and in a major upset, Liberal Bruce Fanjoy narrowly defeated Poilievre in his longtime seat of Carleton – a suburban, highly educated riding with many public-sector workers. The loss underscored Conservative struggles with educated voters. While Poilievre’s party gained over 20 seats nationwide, its suburban gains were offset by setbacks in Canada’s urban Liberal base.
A New Realignment: Depolarization by Race, Polarization by Education
The 2024 U.S. and 2025 Canadian elections revealed a shared political shift: race is fading as the primary dividing line, replaced by education and class. In both countries, working-class voters of color broke from tradition, backing Trump and Canadian Conservatives in record numbers. Economic concerns like jobs, inflation, and crime drove these shifts, as many immigrant and minority voters moved right, challenging old assumptions about racial voting blocs. Meanwhile, the left-of-center parties increasingly appeal to educated urban elites, reinforcing a growing cultural divide.
This educational polarization was stark. In the U.S., the gap between college and non-college voters surpassed the racial divide, with Trump gaining 8 points among non-white voters without degrees, even as Harris held college-educated suburbs. Canada saw the same pattern: Liberal strength in downtown Toronto and Ottawa was enough to blunt Conservative gains in diverse suburbs. Both elections showed that party identities are realigning—Conservatives and Republicans gaining among the multiethnic working class, while Liberals and Democrats consolidate support among educated, urban voters. The challenge ahead for all four parties: bridging a deepening class and education divide that now defines North American politics.
