I have two pet theories that I wanted to run past all of you.
First theory is that you can use the preseason AP poll to pick teams. It doesn't mean that preseason #1 should be your championship pick, but it is a marker for which teams have the raw talent. The theory is that talent rises to the top in the NCAA Tournament. You like teams with NBA prospects and overall stacked rosters to have the higher ceilings and potentially put it all together. I did a bracket where I always picked the higher AP preseason team and it served me pretty well.
Second theory (just thought of it) is that teams from the #1 KenPom conference (with a possible exception of the conference champion) are more likely to underachieve in the NCAA Tournament. The logic is that you get an "overrating" effect where teams are living off their November/December performances within their conference and then when they are mixed back in with the other conferences they struggle. This may correspond to some of the recent struggles of the Big Ten and Big 12 in the NCAA Tournament.
These are incredibly self-serving theories as both BYU and Iowa State were unranked in the preseason and are the beneficiaries of being in the #1 KenPom conference this year. (I did not look for weaknesses of teams with very strong offenses compared to their defense, for example, as that might have made us look bad.)
A couple bonus thoughts:
First theory is that you can use the preseason AP poll to pick teams. It doesn't mean that preseason #1 should be your championship pick, but it is a marker for which teams have the raw talent. The theory is that talent rises to the top in the NCAA Tournament. You like teams with NBA prospects and overall stacked rosters to have the higher ceilings and potentially put it all together. I did a bracket where I always picked the higher AP preseason team and it served me pretty well.
Second theory (just thought of it) is that teams from the #1 KenPom conference (with a possible exception of the conference champion) are more likely to underachieve in the NCAA Tournament. The logic is that you get an "overrating" effect where teams are living off their November/December performances within their conference and then when they are mixed back in with the other conferences they struggle. This may correspond to some of the recent struggles of the Big Ten and Big 12 in the NCAA Tournament.
These are incredibly self-serving theories as both BYU and Iowa State were unranked in the preseason and are the beneficiaries of being in the #1 KenPom conference this year. (I did not look for weaknesses of teams with very strong offenses compared to their defense, for example, as that might have made us look bad.)
A couple bonus thoughts:
- At-large play-in teams collectively do better than non play-in teams on the same seed line. This is obvious when you think about it.
- Corollary to my theory #2 is that mid-major teams with good KenPom numbers might be big trouble. Think Loyola 2021 and Houston 2022. New Mexico as an 11 seed jumps off the page to me.
