I've spent several hours trying to find some angle to convince myself that we can make a deep run. I've got nothing.
I thought going into the tournament that the two teams I really didn't want to face are Gonzaga and Arizona. We had a home game with an amazing crowd and Trent played essentially a perfect game and we still lost. We made 16 three-pointers (44.4%) and lost. We can't play any better than that. Arizona is littered with NBA talent. We have two very late second-round 2023 picks (Kofi and Hawkins) and a guy who tries to make an NBA highlight play every time down the floor (Curbelo.) I don't see any way we beat Arizona. Our best hope is their PG's ankle is still holding him back the first weekend and they fall to the 8/9 seed. Remember that they won their conference tournament after he was injured.
Just that matchup alone would be reason for us to be capped out at the Sweet 16. However, it's a tough road to even get that far. We're playing in Pittsburgh which isn't any kind of home court. The 5 seed we're matched up with is the best 5 seed in 7 years in terms of KenPom rating, and that one went to the Sweet 16. You can at least make an argument that Houston stinks because they have almost no quality wins and two of their best players have season-ending injuries. They did just win their tournament though and beat a team handily that had beaten them twice. They also went to the Final Four with a similar team last year. Maybe the KenPom rating for Houston is inflated because of their slow tempo and their bumslaying. That is a weakness of the model as we've seen with Wisconsin teams in years past. Still, you'd like to see the 5/12 upset making for an easier path and there's really no reason to think UAB knocks off Houston unless they can control the pace and run them off the floor. The overall point is you'd like to be solid favorites in a 4/5 matchup and we'll probably be underdogs.
This Chattanooga team is troubling too. There are better 13 seeds but there are certainly worse ones too. There weren't a lot of upsets knocking out solid mid-major teams. The good ones pretty much won their tournaments. So you have one awful 13 seed (Akron) and three pretty decent ones (Vermont is 59th in KenPom, South Dakota St is 71, and Chattanooga is 72 -- Akron is 131) It's not a historically dominant set of 13's but stronger than average. We're 5-point favorites in KenPom. I don't see any reason why we can't just live at the rim and eat these guys alive, but they are a legitimate team and should give us a game. It's certainly one you can lose. We didn't play well against Drexel last year and it was still a cake walk. You'll see some brackets with Chattanooga picked over us and those people aren't crazy. Not exactly a good sign for a deep run.
Still, it's really more about Illinois than the other teams. Where's the evidence that this is a really good team? Let's look at our best wins:
@Iowa (87-83): Iowa played us better at home the second time. Not encouraging.
@Indiana (74-57): They just beat us in the BTT. Not good.
@MSU (79-74): That's a 7 seed and Michigan State isn't a good team.
@Mich (93-85): That's an 11 seed and really not impressive.
vs. Wisc (80-67): Wisconsin is a 3 seed but they are overrated. KenPom gives this game a B-level for difficulty.
So the argument is basically "you haven't seen the real Illinois yet." I think the committee was buying this when they gave us the 3 seed on 2/19. The problem with that thinking is that even as we're supposedly getting healthy we aren't getting any better. Why is that the case?
This team has reminded me of the 2002 team. That team also got a share of the Big Ten title and had a star player coming back to avenge a devastating NCAA loss after being a 1 seed the previous year. The team never quite lived up to high expectations and ran into a tough 1 seed in the Sweet 16. It will be ok if we match that season. There were more good years to follow.
I thought going into the tournament that the two teams I really didn't want to face are Gonzaga and Arizona. We had a home game with an amazing crowd and Trent played essentially a perfect game and we still lost. We made 16 three-pointers (44.4%) and lost. We can't play any better than that. Arizona is littered with NBA talent. We have two very late second-round 2023 picks (Kofi and Hawkins) and a guy who tries to make an NBA highlight play every time down the floor (Curbelo.) I don't see any way we beat Arizona. Our best hope is their PG's ankle is still holding him back the first weekend and they fall to the 8/9 seed. Remember that they won their conference tournament after he was injured.
Just that matchup alone would be reason for us to be capped out at the Sweet 16. However, it's a tough road to even get that far. We're playing in Pittsburgh which isn't any kind of home court. The 5 seed we're matched up with is the best 5 seed in 7 years in terms of KenPom rating, and that one went to the Sweet 16. You can at least make an argument that Houston stinks because they have almost no quality wins and two of their best players have season-ending injuries. They did just win their tournament though and beat a team handily that had beaten them twice. They also went to the Final Four with a similar team last year. Maybe the KenPom rating for Houston is inflated because of their slow tempo and their bumslaying. That is a weakness of the model as we've seen with Wisconsin teams in years past. Still, you'd like to see the 5/12 upset making for an easier path and there's really no reason to think UAB knocks off Houston unless they can control the pace and run them off the floor. The overall point is you'd like to be solid favorites in a 4/5 matchup and we'll probably be underdogs.
This Chattanooga team is troubling too. There are better 13 seeds but there are certainly worse ones too. There weren't a lot of upsets knocking out solid mid-major teams. The good ones pretty much won their tournaments. So you have one awful 13 seed (Akron) and three pretty decent ones (Vermont is 59th in KenPom, South Dakota St is 71, and Chattanooga is 72 -- Akron is 131) It's not a historically dominant set of 13's but stronger than average. We're 5-point favorites in KenPom. I don't see any reason why we can't just live at the rim and eat these guys alive, but they are a legitimate team and should give us a game. It's certainly one you can lose. We didn't play well against Drexel last year and it was still a cake walk. You'll see some brackets with Chattanooga picked over us and those people aren't crazy. Not exactly a good sign for a deep run.
Still, it's really more about Illinois than the other teams. Where's the evidence that this is a really good team? Let's look at our best wins:
@Iowa (87-83): Iowa played us better at home the second time. Not encouraging.
@Indiana (74-57): They just beat us in the BTT. Not good.
@MSU (79-74): That's a 7 seed and Michigan State isn't a good team.
@Mich (93-85): That's an 11 seed and really not impressive.
vs. Wisc (80-67): Wisconsin is a 3 seed but they are overrated. KenPom gives this game a B-level for difficulty.
So the argument is basically "you haven't seen the real Illinois yet." I think the committee was buying this when they gave us the 3 seed on 2/19. The problem with that thinking is that even as we're supposedly getting healthy we aren't getting any better. Why is that the case?
- Kofi has been scouted. The trick is to throw a double-team at him and help off Curbelo, Hawkins, or Da'Monte. Stay on Grandison, Plummer, and Frazier. Once teams started having success with it, everyone started doing it.
- Curbelo doesn't fit in our offense this year. He's extremely ball-dominant and there is always size waiting near the rim because of Kofi. He's not a good finisher and he's careless with the ball so as long as you don't give him a wide open lane he will put up a sub-100 ORtg more often than not. With his high usage rate, that's offensive poison. We also have three very small guards and in general we can only play two of them at once. We haven't figured out sub patterns on offense and we're prone to long droughts.
- We can't manufacture offense in the clutch. Our best clutch option is Trent pulling up for a 25-footer. That's concerning.
- Trent's scoring can be negated by taller defenders.
- Plummer can't guard.
- Da'Monte can't score.
- RJ plays too soft.
- Grandison is hurt.
- Hawkins lacks experience and confidence. He has talent but any time he starts thinking on the court he is toast.
- Our help defense is almost non-existent. We just funnel guys toward Kofi in the lane. Teams just spread us out and beat us 1-on-1. If they have big wings we can't stop them. We don't help and recover well and we try to block too many shots and give up easy putback baskets way too often.
- We have a highly contagious disease spreading all over our locker room. Seriously, how is this not a bigger story? Underwood could barely make it through the press conference and at least two players had to wear special glasses. This is not like a 24-hour thing where you are fine the next day. We all just assumed that this team would be healthy for the NCAA Tournament and reach their potential. Well that isn't happening if they've all got freaking pinkeye. This could end up being the worst snakebite in a snakebitten season.
This team has reminded me of the 2002 team. That team also got a share of the Big Ten title and had a star player coming back to avenge a devastating NCAA loss after being a 1 seed the previous year. The team never quite lived up to high expectations and ran into a tough 1 seed in the Sweet 16. It will be ok if we match that season. There were more good years to follow.
