My offseason vision for this team was an NBA-style team that would struggle early but come together in February/March for a deep NCAA Tournament run. This was supposed to be the most talented team at Illinois in ages and be built specifically to overcome the second-round losses that thwarted us the last two seasons.
If I was right, this team would have been physically dominating lesser teams and essentially running the Penn States of the world off the court by February. I'd even believed that the way the schedule was backloaded that we could win the Big Ten outright even if we weren't clicking on all cylinders in December and January.
That's not what this team is. After the early wins over UCLA and Texas and then the flameouts vs. Penn State and Missouri, this team has been labeled "inconsistent" in many circles. What we've actually seen though is a team that is very consistent in the last month or so. It's just not consistently meeting our expectations.
In reality, this team is between the 25th and 30th best team in the country. Their KenPom rating has been very stable in that regard and the other metrics and ratings tell a very similar story. We win virtually all of our Quad 2 and below games and struggle in Quad 1 games. We do have two signature wins courtesy of hot shooting games from Shannon and Mayer, respectively. Those will probably bump us up from a 7 seed to a 6. You never know exactly how the matchups will fall in the NCAA Tournament. Maybe Kentucky or UNC get an 11 seed and decide to put it all together right before they play us or we get the play-in winner which is always a nasty matchup. Maybe we get a good draw. Maybe we catch a 3 seed that can't guard Dainja or we get a 14 seed that pulled off a crazy one-off upset. It's a roll of the dice. However, the mostly likely outcome in the NCAA Tournament is the same one it has been the last two years. Win one game and lose the second game. That's what you'd expect from a team in the 25-30 range. If and when it does, this fanbase will lose its collective mind.
Maybe we should relax a little bit and realize that this is a rebuilding year. Failure to reach the Sweet 16 this year does not necessarily indicate an inability to get there next year or in future years. There is reason to stay the course. Here's my argument:
Or we can have infinite arguing about how Underwood has only won 2 or 3 NCAA Tournament games in 6 years and how he's too mean and stubborn and blah blah blah. I just don't think there's any real permanent roadblock to success with this coaching regime.
If I was right, this team would have been physically dominating lesser teams and essentially running the Penn States of the world off the court by February. I'd even believed that the way the schedule was backloaded that we could win the Big Ten outright even if we weren't clicking on all cylinders in December and January.
That's not what this team is. After the early wins over UCLA and Texas and then the flameouts vs. Penn State and Missouri, this team has been labeled "inconsistent" in many circles. What we've actually seen though is a team that is very consistent in the last month or so. It's just not consistently meeting our expectations.
In reality, this team is between the 25th and 30th best team in the country. Their KenPom rating has been very stable in that regard and the other metrics and ratings tell a very similar story. We win virtually all of our Quad 2 and below games and struggle in Quad 1 games. We do have two signature wins courtesy of hot shooting games from Shannon and Mayer, respectively. Those will probably bump us up from a 7 seed to a 6. You never know exactly how the matchups will fall in the NCAA Tournament. Maybe Kentucky or UNC get an 11 seed and decide to put it all together right before they play us or we get the play-in winner which is always a nasty matchup. Maybe we get a good draw. Maybe we catch a 3 seed that can't guard Dainja or we get a 14 seed that pulled off a crazy one-off upset. It's a roll of the dice. However, the mostly likely outcome in the NCAA Tournament is the same one it has been the last two years. Win one game and lose the second game. That's what you'd expect from a team in the 25-30 range. If and when it does, this fanbase will lose its collective mind.
Maybe we should relax a little bit and realize that this is a rebuilding year. Failure to reach the Sweet 16 this year does not necessarily indicate an inability to get there next year or in future years. There is reason to stay the course. Here's my argument:
- This team lost its core group of players (Trent, Da'Monte, Grandison, Kofi) and had to rebuild. The holdovers (Hawkins, RJ, Goode) were not leaders and have not shaped this team. The new core of the team is the freshmen (Rodgers, Epps, Harris, and Dainja) and they are all developing. I'd expect all four of them back next year and they are better equipped to lay a winning foundation.
- We've gotten burned on repeated gambles on "diva" freshman guards. Mark Smith, Adam Miller, Skyy Clark (and in some ways Andre Curbelo) were all attempts to build teams around a hyped up talented freshman guard. These guys all thought they were pros and when success didn't come instantly they folded. What we're seeing with teams like Maryland, Penn State, and others is that you can build a team around a bulldog transfer upperclassman guard from a mid-major. I think Underwood will learn that lesson and make the adjustment with how he works the transfer portal.
- You can have success with "hired guns" in the transfer portal. I'd say the Shannon/Mayer experiment has been largely successful. We should be able to replicate that and inject talent into the program every season. We will lose more than our share of guys because of Underwood's demanding style but this churn won't really harm us. This is especially true because we have three guys on the team (Shannon, Mayer, and Hawkins) that may get drafted and that will help us show that we can put guys in the NBA after not doing much of that before now.
- The downfall of this team is that the shooters can't shoot. We thought we had good shooters in RJ, Hawkins, and Goode. RJ has been a total bust this year. Goode has been hurt (maybe he can help us in March.) Hawkins is a bit of a coach-killer in that he tries to do too much and doesn't do it efficiently. We also have the aforementioned hole at guard and are relying on wing players at the 2 who also can't shoot. You can't win in modern basketball without making 3-pointers. We've had better shooters in the past so I can imagine an iteration of this team next year that has a better mix of shooters. Maybe we get one of those NBA-style "3-and-D" guys in the portal.
Or we can have infinite arguing about how Underwood has only won 2 or 3 NCAA Tournament games in 6 years and how he's too mean and stubborn and blah blah blah. I just don't think there's any real permanent roadblock to success with this coaching regime.
