Greetings, sports fans. The Illini have played one game at this time, and stats rankings are based on a gobbeldlygook of projections reliant on old players, witchcraft, and projecting 5-star recruits who have each played about 30 minutes of college hoopy.
Anyway, where we at:
KenPom: 74
Sagarin: 32
T-Rank: 32
TeamRankings: 51
Well, look at that. A pretty stark divergence in the ranks. KenPom probably remembers a lot more about last season than the other rankings, and until the taper is likely going to be depressed as a result. This may turn out to be the correct path, but I suspect something between TeamRankings and KenPom is closest to the endpoint for now.
Observations:
1. @saltygrapes is all over this already, but KenPom's ranking relies on the Illini offense being similar to last year's edition, although it has already jumped to 73 as a result of pounding Evansville relentlessly in Champaign. T-Rank reports us as #20 offensively, which is the strength of our ranking on Torvik's site.
2. Before we throw any parties, a quick look at the projections reveals that even T-Rank likes 17-12 for the Illini. That's probably not a tourney team, but it's not miles off, either. TeamRankings likes 15-14, which is not only more realistic given our turnover and lack of size, it's not on the cusp of anything you'll need dancing shoes for.
3. First look at 3FG%: 42.9%. If you can stay within 5% of that, you will see wins. We unloaded a whole bunch of bad shooters in the offseason, so there's reason to believe in improved shooting from outside. Anyone notice Ayo was hitting 3s? I sure did.
4. Beyond the joy of an easy, fun win over a pretty bad Evansville team, I loved the blocks. We won't get loads of blocks this year, but between chasedowns from Williams/Ayo and a few from Tevian and Giorgi (and Samba???), I think we are set up to be a below average shotblocking team when Adonis gets back. This would change the defense significantly. We were total crap last year for interior defense because no one was a threat to bat or alter a shot.
5. Ayo, Trent, and Feliz are all high-usage players so far, which is tremendous. It gives lots of space to more timid or less ready players to live in the offense, and obviously provides multiple players who can shoulder the scoring load. Feliz, in particular, is shockingly confident and aggressive. El General gives off faint DWill vibes with his stockiness and strength game. If he can manage TOs and hit a few threes, you're going to see this comparison more often.
6. Aaron Jordan looks like a finished product. Congrats to the young man for showing a versatile game and being pretty crafty on the floor. His shot appears easier to get off this season, and he's back with his old man game in the paint. We're going to need DRebs from him and Williams in a big way to go along with a more aggressive usage rate. If he can avoid the huge shooting slump from last year, Jordan could conceivably get HM for the all-B1G team.
Closing thought: What if one of the projections is dead on? Let's unpack it:
#32: I mean, it's freaking party time. You easily make the tourney and prepare to be ranked next year. Illinois looks rebuilt and dangerous. Underwood is restored as a dashboard saint of offensive basketball, the program finally does a little recruiting on its own, and things are great.
#51: This is an NIT team, and we're encouraged although many are still too pissed that if we had just beaten Purdue and Minnesota, we'd be on the right side of the bubble. Still looking like a tourney team in a year, but the hype will have to wait a season.
#74: Slipping into the danger zone now. It's a nice improvement over last year, obviously, but you aren't in the NIT, you still haven't made many waves nationally, and you're hoping to keep developing so that it won't take a miracle to make the 2019-20 NCAAs. In short, the shadows get a bit longer.
Anyway, where we at:
KenPom: 74
Sagarin: 32
T-Rank: 32
TeamRankings: 51
Well, look at that. A pretty stark divergence in the ranks. KenPom probably remembers a lot more about last season than the other rankings, and until the taper is likely going to be depressed as a result. This may turn out to be the correct path, but I suspect something between TeamRankings and KenPom is closest to the endpoint for now.
Observations:
1. @saltygrapes is all over this already, but KenPom's ranking relies on the Illini offense being similar to last year's edition, although it has already jumped to 73 as a result of pounding Evansville relentlessly in Champaign. T-Rank reports us as #20 offensively, which is the strength of our ranking on Torvik's site.
2. Before we throw any parties, a quick look at the projections reveals that even T-Rank likes 17-12 for the Illini. That's probably not a tourney team, but it's not miles off, either. TeamRankings likes 15-14, which is not only more realistic given our turnover and lack of size, it's not on the cusp of anything you'll need dancing shoes for.
3. First look at 3FG%: 42.9%. If you can stay within 5% of that, you will see wins. We unloaded a whole bunch of bad shooters in the offseason, so there's reason to believe in improved shooting from outside. Anyone notice Ayo was hitting 3s? I sure did.
4. Beyond the joy of an easy, fun win over a pretty bad Evansville team, I loved the blocks. We won't get loads of blocks this year, but between chasedowns from Williams/Ayo and a few from Tevian and Giorgi (and Samba???), I think we are set up to be a below average shotblocking team when Adonis gets back. This would change the defense significantly. We were total crap last year for interior defense because no one was a threat to bat or alter a shot.
5. Ayo, Trent, and Feliz are all high-usage players so far, which is tremendous. It gives lots of space to more timid or less ready players to live in the offense, and obviously provides multiple players who can shoulder the scoring load. Feliz, in particular, is shockingly confident and aggressive. El General gives off faint DWill vibes with his stockiness and strength game. If he can manage TOs and hit a few threes, you're going to see this comparison more often.
6. Aaron Jordan looks like a finished product. Congrats to the young man for showing a versatile game and being pretty crafty on the floor. His shot appears easier to get off this season, and he's back with his old man game in the paint. We're going to need DRebs from him and Williams in a big way to go along with a more aggressive usage rate. If he can avoid the huge shooting slump from last year, Jordan could conceivably get HM for the all-B1G team.
Closing thought: What if one of the projections is dead on? Let's unpack it:
#32: I mean, it's freaking party time. You easily make the tourney and prepare to be ranked next year. Illinois looks rebuilt and dangerous. Underwood is restored as a dashboard saint of offensive basketball, the program finally does a little recruiting on its own, and things are great.
#51: This is an NIT team, and we're encouraged although many are still too pissed that if we had just beaten Purdue and Minnesota, we'd be on the right side of the bubble. Still looking like a tourney team in a year, but the hype will have to wait a season.
#74: Slipping into the danger zone now. It's a nice improvement over last year, obviously, but you aren't in the NIT, you still haven't made many waves nationally, and you're hoping to keep developing so that it won't take a miracle to make the 2019-20 NCAAs. In short, the shadows get a bit longer.
