Rankings-wise, we're generally sitting in the 11-15 range. Our AP ranking is #12. I think we are properly ranked and rated in terms of what we've done so far. In that sense, I very much know how good we are.
I can also look at it in terms of which teams are better than we are. I'd say we're behind the following teams: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Auburn, Duke, Kansas, and Purdue . We're on par with Baylor, Villanova, Houston, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Texas. So that puts us in the 8-14 range, or #11 on average.
So I'm pretty comfortable saying that right now we are the 11th or 12th best team in the country. If you project that out, we'll finish 4-2, 2-1, 2-1 for a Big Ten Championship, Sweet 16, and a final record of 26-10 (15-5). If you offered me that, I'd sign up for it and consider the season a success.
However, I see something more. If you look at our six losses, two were without Kofi, the Cincy loss was with PCS Curbelo and Kofi not passing out of double teams. The other three were to Arizona and twice to Purdue. Arizona was without Curbelo and the first Purdue game was double-OT with a mostly concussed Kofi. The only loss with our real team was at Purdue. I won't discount that loss but it does seem like Purdue went Super Saiyan on us to the point where they were wiped out for their next two games. So I'd argue that we're a rather difficult team to beat when we have all our players.
The other interesting thing is that this team is still developing and is not yet complete. Brad Underwood basically rode our starters into the ground to get through January. He had to do it, but essentially we were a five-man team of Trent, Plummer, Da'Monte, Grandison, and Kofi. The other guys played spot minutes. Although Underwood will now play any of 12 guys in meaningful situations, the X-factor for this team is two guys off the bench: Curbelo and RJ.
Curbelo is a controversial player because he's incredibly gifted yet often inconsistent and inefficient. You can't win with that as a 30 mpg starter. As a bench guy, though, he's an incredibly valuable change of pace. He can get into the paint against anyone, is extremely high usage (which takes pressure off the second unit), and can set up guys with very easy looks. I'm not sure you want him starting (Curbelo/Frazier/Plummer is too short a lineup for long stretches) but in a way that solves our guard dilemma for this season. I also think he's a better shooter than he appears (79% FT) and his 22% 3PT number will rise to the point where you can't leave him open on the perimeter. I also expect him to find more chemistry with the rest of the team as he gets more practice time. He can defend well (quick hands, good bounce/rebounding) and if he's taking minutes from Plummer, Podz, and DMW then I think that adds value. There may be some haters but he's still Dre. (After last night I desperately need a Curbelo highlight reel set to "Still Dre")
The secret weapon for this team is RJ. It's no secret that our biggest weakness is the 3/4 spot. If you wanted to design a player to fill that hole you couldn't do better than RJ. 6'7", long, super athletic. Shooting 70% from 3 and 79% FT. All of his rate numbers (rebounding, assists, steals) are as good or better than DMW/Grandison. His #1 comp is Kahlil Whitney. Basically he's an athletic Grandison. The guy has done nothing but flash all season long. He's now forcing his way into the rotation and he adds a ton of value to the 3/4 rotation. I was a little jealous of Iowa and Wisconsin finding Keegan Murray and Johnny Davis hiding on their rosters in the offseason. Now I'm thinking we have one of those and his name is RJ Melendez.
When you can run Kofi (5) + Trent/Plummer/Curbelo (1/2) + DMW/Grandison/Melendez (3/4) that is a complete team that presents a ton of matchup problems. Sprinkle in a little bit of Hawkins, Payne, and BBV for your big man depth with a couple more freshmen sharpshooters in Goode and Podz and you really have a complete roster.
We've seen lots of games with 30 minutes of great play and a single long drought. We see the bad stretch and worry about what happens if that lingers. What we haven't considered is what happens if we're still getting better. What happens if that 30 minutes of great play gets closer to 40 minutes? What happens if the depth refreshes our starters down the stretch? What happens if we keep going 12 deep and start running teams off the floor? I think Brad Underwood has a vision for this team that hasn't been realized yet. He's sitting at #12, 18-6 (11-3) on Feb. 14th but I think he's aiming much higher. Still can't wait to see what this team becomes in March.
I can also look at it in terms of which teams are better than we are. I'd say we're behind the following teams: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Auburn, Duke, Kansas, and Purdue . We're on par with Baylor, Villanova, Houston, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Texas. So that puts us in the 8-14 range, or #11 on average.
So I'm pretty comfortable saying that right now we are the 11th or 12th best team in the country. If you project that out, we'll finish 4-2, 2-1, 2-1 for a Big Ten Championship, Sweet 16, and a final record of 26-10 (15-5). If you offered me that, I'd sign up for it and consider the season a success.
However, I see something more. If you look at our six losses, two were without Kofi, the Cincy loss was with PCS Curbelo and Kofi not passing out of double teams. The other three were to Arizona and twice to Purdue. Arizona was without Curbelo and the first Purdue game was double-OT with a mostly concussed Kofi. The only loss with our real team was at Purdue. I won't discount that loss but it does seem like Purdue went Super Saiyan on us to the point where they were wiped out for their next two games. So I'd argue that we're a rather difficult team to beat when we have all our players.
The other interesting thing is that this team is still developing and is not yet complete. Brad Underwood basically rode our starters into the ground to get through January. He had to do it, but essentially we were a five-man team of Trent, Plummer, Da'Monte, Grandison, and Kofi. The other guys played spot minutes. Although Underwood will now play any of 12 guys in meaningful situations, the X-factor for this team is two guys off the bench: Curbelo and RJ.
Curbelo is a controversial player because he's incredibly gifted yet often inconsistent and inefficient. You can't win with that as a 30 mpg starter. As a bench guy, though, he's an incredibly valuable change of pace. He can get into the paint against anyone, is extremely high usage (which takes pressure off the second unit), and can set up guys with very easy looks. I'm not sure you want him starting (Curbelo/Frazier/Plummer is too short a lineup for long stretches) but in a way that solves our guard dilemma for this season. I also think he's a better shooter than he appears (79% FT) and his 22% 3PT number will rise to the point where you can't leave him open on the perimeter. I also expect him to find more chemistry with the rest of the team as he gets more practice time. He can defend well (quick hands, good bounce/rebounding) and if he's taking minutes from Plummer, Podz, and DMW then I think that adds value. There may be some haters but he's still Dre. (After last night I desperately need a Curbelo highlight reel set to "Still Dre")
The secret weapon for this team is RJ. It's no secret that our biggest weakness is the 3/4 spot. If you wanted to design a player to fill that hole you couldn't do better than RJ. 6'7", long, super athletic. Shooting 70% from 3 and 79% FT. All of his rate numbers (rebounding, assists, steals) are as good or better than DMW/Grandison. His #1 comp is Kahlil Whitney. Basically he's an athletic Grandison. The guy has done nothing but flash all season long. He's now forcing his way into the rotation and he adds a ton of value to the 3/4 rotation. I was a little jealous of Iowa and Wisconsin finding Keegan Murray and Johnny Davis hiding on their rosters in the offseason. Now I'm thinking we have one of those and his name is RJ Melendez.
When you can run Kofi (5) + Trent/Plummer/Curbelo (1/2) + DMW/Grandison/Melendez (3/4) that is a complete team that presents a ton of matchup problems. Sprinkle in a little bit of Hawkins, Payne, and BBV for your big man depth with a couple more freshmen sharpshooters in Goode and Podz and you really have a complete roster.
We've seen lots of games with 30 minutes of great play and a single long drought. We see the bad stretch and worry about what happens if that lingers. What we haven't considered is what happens if we're still getting better. What happens if that 30 minutes of great play gets closer to 40 minutes? What happens if the depth refreshes our starters down the stretch? What happens if we keep going 12 deep and start running teams off the floor? I think Brad Underwood has a vision for this team that hasn't been realized yet. He's sitting at #12, 18-6 (11-3) on Feb. 14th but I think he's aiming much higher. Still can't wait to see what this team becomes in March.
