I'd say that most people are happy with the season so far. There were some early struggles but we can see the team improving.
Let's say that things continue to go well (losing to Missouri would instantly change that conversation, so let me *knock on wood*.) What's a realistic ceiling for this team?
We could argue that we have the 2nd best player in basketball with TSJ. Coleman Hawkins is starting to look like himself (he's a huge difference-make on defense.) I think that's about it for potential NBA players...maybe Guerrier is in the conversation at least.
Ty Rodgers is big and athletic for a PG but he can't shoot. He could improve a lot at finishing at the rim and hit a reasonable FT% but that's about it.
Domask has the booty ball and will probably see some uptick in 3PT% but he has limits as well.
Dainja can present matchup problems and gives us some useful bulk but he lacks quickness and can be exploited on defense. The FTs are ugly (but maybe improving too) and he's clearly not shooting from the perimeter.
Goode can hit 3's and he has decent size but he's not quick. He's a useful role player but that's all I'd expect him to be.
Harmon is ok but he's just a guy.
DGL seems a bit lost right now, but he may develop. He's still learning a lot clearly. The flashes of talent are there and I hope he doesn't sulk. Right now he's got a bad case of "Underwood freshman guard." He may raise the ceiling though if he overtakes Harmon.
Hansberry is tenacious and the game may slow down for him. I'm curious to see if he can compete with Dainja and show more of a shooting touch.
Moretti is intriguing but I don't think he gets in the rotation this year.
I think we have guys in the right roles. Most of our improvement would likely come from the team learning how to play off each other and cutting down the turnovers. I can also see improved defense as guys get more consistent in the scheme.
I don't see elite talent on this team. There are probably a dozen teams that could out-athlete us, so we'll need to be really precise and together to beat any of them.
We're currently +22.17 in efficiency on KenPom. I could argue that maybe we could bump that as high as +24.50 as we round into form.
Looking at historical KenPom ratings, that +24.50 could be a lot different in terms of ranking just based on the other teams. Here's where that ends up:
2024: #6
2023: #5
2022: #11
2021: #10
2020: #6
2019: #12
2018: #7
2017: #12
2016: #8
2015: #10
2014: #8
2013: #10
2012: #8
2011: #10
2010: #9
2009: #9
2008: #10
2007: #10
2006: #6
2005: #9
2004: #9
2003: #5**
2002: #8**
2001: #7
2000: #9
1999: #12
So we could be anywhere in that #5 to #12 range with some modest improvement. That translates into a 2 or 3 seed, Sweet 16 team with upside but not a 1 seed or Final Four type of team. The two years with asterisks were Illinois teams that ended up with those ratings. Here's the efficiency rating of some of the better Illinois teams of the last 25 years for comparison purposes:
2005: +32.68 (1 seed, Big Ten Champ, BTT Champ, Final Four, lost in title game)
2021: +29.06 (1 seed, BTT Champ, lost in 2nd round)
2001: +28.87 (1 seed, Big Ten Champ, Elite Eight)
2003: +24.47 (4 seed, BTT Champ, lost in 2nd round)
2002: +23.21 (4 seed, Big Ten Champ, Sweet 16)
2006: +23.20 (4 seed, lost in 2nd round)
2000: +22.20 (4 seed, lost in 2nd round)
2024: +22.17
2004: +22.11 (5 seed, Big Ten Champ, Sweet 16)
2011: +20.14 (9 seed, lost in 2nd round)
This also tracks with contending for conference titles and making it to at least the 2nd round of the NCAAs, possibly a Sweet 16. Right now we're a 4/5 seed but maybe some upside depending on the number of other top teams that we're competing with.
So in the last 25 years, there have been 3 juggernaut Illini teams followed by a handful of enjoyable contenders. I think we're tracking well with that second tier of teams but don't stack up to the juggernauts. I'm enjoying this year but I do think the more exuberant commentators who've claimed that this is Underwood's best Illini team are mistaken. We may get the most NCAA Tournament success but we're not threatening to be a 1 seed. You can have a memorable season as a 4 seed though if the bracket breaks your way.
Let's say that things continue to go well (losing to Missouri would instantly change that conversation, so let me *knock on wood*.) What's a realistic ceiling for this team?
We could argue that we have the 2nd best player in basketball with TSJ. Coleman Hawkins is starting to look like himself (he's a huge difference-make on defense.) I think that's about it for potential NBA players...maybe Guerrier is in the conversation at least.
Ty Rodgers is big and athletic for a PG but he can't shoot. He could improve a lot at finishing at the rim and hit a reasonable FT% but that's about it.
Domask has the booty ball and will probably see some uptick in 3PT% but he has limits as well.
Dainja can present matchup problems and gives us some useful bulk but he lacks quickness and can be exploited on defense. The FTs are ugly (but maybe improving too) and he's clearly not shooting from the perimeter.
Goode can hit 3's and he has decent size but he's not quick. He's a useful role player but that's all I'd expect him to be.
Harmon is ok but he's just a guy.
DGL seems a bit lost right now, but he may develop. He's still learning a lot clearly. The flashes of talent are there and I hope he doesn't sulk. Right now he's got a bad case of "Underwood freshman guard." He may raise the ceiling though if he overtakes Harmon.
Hansberry is tenacious and the game may slow down for him. I'm curious to see if he can compete with Dainja and show more of a shooting touch.
Moretti is intriguing but I don't think he gets in the rotation this year.
I think we have guys in the right roles. Most of our improvement would likely come from the team learning how to play off each other and cutting down the turnovers. I can also see improved defense as guys get more consistent in the scheme.
I don't see elite talent on this team. There are probably a dozen teams that could out-athlete us, so we'll need to be really precise and together to beat any of them.
We're currently +22.17 in efficiency on KenPom. I could argue that maybe we could bump that as high as +24.50 as we round into form.
Looking at historical KenPom ratings, that +24.50 could be a lot different in terms of ranking just based on the other teams. Here's where that ends up:
2024: #6
2023: #5
2022: #11
2021: #10
2020: #6
2019: #12
2018: #7
2017: #12
2016: #8
2015: #10
2014: #8
2013: #10
2012: #8
2011: #10
2010: #9
2009: #9
2008: #10
2007: #10
2006: #6
2005: #9
2004: #9
2003: #5**
2002: #8**
2001: #7
2000: #9
1999: #12
So we could be anywhere in that #5 to #12 range with some modest improvement. That translates into a 2 or 3 seed, Sweet 16 team with upside but not a 1 seed or Final Four type of team. The two years with asterisks were Illinois teams that ended up with those ratings. Here's the efficiency rating of some of the better Illinois teams of the last 25 years for comparison purposes:
2005: +32.68 (1 seed, Big Ten Champ, BTT Champ, Final Four, lost in title game)
2021: +29.06 (1 seed, BTT Champ, lost in 2nd round)
2001: +28.87 (1 seed, Big Ten Champ, Elite Eight)
2003: +24.47 (4 seed, BTT Champ, lost in 2nd round)
2002: +23.21 (4 seed, Big Ten Champ, Sweet 16)
2006: +23.20 (4 seed, lost in 2nd round)
2000: +22.20 (4 seed, lost in 2nd round)
2024: +22.17
2004: +22.11 (5 seed, Big Ten Champ, Sweet 16)
2011: +20.14 (9 seed, lost in 2nd round)
This also tracks with contending for conference titles and making it to at least the 2nd round of the NCAAs, possibly a Sweet 16. Right now we're a 4/5 seed but maybe some upside depending on the number of other top teams that we're competing with.
So in the last 25 years, there have been 3 juggernaut Illini teams followed by a handful of enjoyable contenders. I think we're tracking well with that second tier of teams but don't stack up to the juggernauts. I'm enjoying this year but I do think the more exuberant commentators who've claimed that this is Underwood's best Illini team are mistaken. We may get the most NCAA Tournament success but we're not threatening to be a 1 seed. You can have a memorable season as a 4 seed though if the bracket breaks your way.
