I still am trying to figure out my narrative for this year's team.
This team has a lot of on-paper talent, with six starter-quality players that are top-35 talents.
I think they are genuinely good guys that are coachable and play well together.
We do know that they missed some practice time with injuries/illness and haven't had a ton of consistency. Similarly, we also know that this is a young team that hasn't played together before this year.
We also know that this team shoots a lot of 3-pointers and is prone to massive shooting slumps along with some games where they hit a lot of shots and crush their opponents.
Ignoring the 6 cupcake games, we lost 7 games by double-digits and won 8 games by double-digits. Within those games, 4 losses were by 20+ and 6 wins were by 20+.
This team plays at a high tempo (18th in the country), is really good at offensive rebounding, 2PT offense, 2PT defense, limiting 3PT attempts, and is also solid at defensive rebounding and avoiding fouls. The team struggles with 3PT% on both ends and turnovers.
Putting that all out there, I have a simple (and fairly obvious) conclusion. This team lacks confidence and the ability to adapt in-game to overcome adversity.
The classic scenario in our losses is the offensive set that breaks down, a live ball turnover that gives the other team a transition layup, we have a quick miss from 3/offensive rebound/missed 3/offensive rebound/missed 3, broken play, other team hits a 3. The other team is super pumped and we're deflated.
The most bizarre stat from this year (I hope we never see it again!) is Kylan Boswell shooting 30-134 (22.4%) from 3. This guy shoots over 4 3-pointers a game (he is our starting shooting guard!) and is just shooting a horrific percentage. This is from a guy who is a plus shooter at Arizona over two seasons (39%, 38%.) Problem is that he's using up all of his energy on defense this year and whenever he's tired and handling the ball on the perimeter that off-the-dribble 3 is always there tempting him.
This is where I think the coaching is letting this team down. We have offensive and defensive coordinators that are playing the analytic percentages and not the psychological game. Think about how many times we've had just amazing looks where you know there is no chance the shot is going in. Also think about how many times we leave a guy wide open and he gets confident and goes off on us uncharacteristically.
You can tell the issues are psychological because the 3-point shooting slumps are contagious. We have nice human beings on this team -- "my bad" guys -- who get in their own heads. Guys like Humrichous and KJ who feel really bad when they let the team down or even a cerebral big like Tomi are all going to be intimidated by a Maryland-style team of tough guys who just play aggressively all game.
I do think Morez Johnson helps this team tremendously because he brings that physical intensity and simplicity to the game. Protect the rim, rebound the ball, dunk the ball.
I really hope the week between games helps this team get their heads right in practice and build some confidence in their rotations and their Plan B when the other team makes things difficult. I hope that the guys have some success in the first round against a team of the caliber that they usually beat. (I like that the other team will have less ability to focus their prep time against us.) Then they will get to play in a fast-paced game against a Kentucky team that doesn't defend particularly well so hopefully that builds some confidence too. Maybe if they survive the first weekend then they will be able to feel like they've collectively met expectations and can play loose and free against a familiar opponent in a familiar venue. That's the upside.
Downside is we miss our first 10 3-pointers and get punched in the mouth early. Then you get a veteran coach like a Sean Miller that punks us all game and our guys tighten up more and more. Then it's the same narrative as the other 12 losses.
I guess the only thing we can control is positive energy from the Illini fans in Milwaukee. This is a young team that is struggling with confidence. If you are there in person, try to cheer them on and be positive. (Whatever Indiana fans did with death threats or whatever this season, try to do the opposite of that.) Let's be a supportive fan base and not do anything that would sap confidence from a team that needs every shred of it.
This team has a lot of on-paper talent, with six starter-quality players that are top-35 talents.
I think they are genuinely good guys that are coachable and play well together.
We do know that they missed some practice time with injuries/illness and haven't had a ton of consistency. Similarly, we also know that this is a young team that hasn't played together before this year.
We also know that this team shoots a lot of 3-pointers and is prone to massive shooting slumps along with some games where they hit a lot of shots and crush their opponents.
Ignoring the 6 cupcake games, we lost 7 games by double-digits and won 8 games by double-digits. Within those games, 4 losses were by 20+ and 6 wins were by 20+.
This team plays at a high tempo (18th in the country), is really good at offensive rebounding, 2PT offense, 2PT defense, limiting 3PT attempts, and is also solid at defensive rebounding and avoiding fouls. The team struggles with 3PT% on both ends and turnovers.
Putting that all out there, I have a simple (and fairly obvious) conclusion. This team lacks confidence and the ability to adapt in-game to overcome adversity.
The classic scenario in our losses is the offensive set that breaks down, a live ball turnover that gives the other team a transition layup, we have a quick miss from 3/offensive rebound/missed 3/offensive rebound/missed 3, broken play, other team hits a 3. The other team is super pumped and we're deflated.
The most bizarre stat from this year (I hope we never see it again!) is Kylan Boswell shooting 30-134 (22.4%) from 3. This guy shoots over 4 3-pointers a game (he is our starting shooting guard!) and is just shooting a horrific percentage. This is from a guy who is a plus shooter at Arizona over two seasons (39%, 38%.) Problem is that he's using up all of his energy on defense this year and whenever he's tired and handling the ball on the perimeter that off-the-dribble 3 is always there tempting him.
This is where I think the coaching is letting this team down. We have offensive and defensive coordinators that are playing the analytic percentages and not the psychological game. Think about how many times we've had just amazing looks where you know there is no chance the shot is going in. Also think about how many times we leave a guy wide open and he gets confident and goes off on us uncharacteristically.
You can tell the issues are psychological because the 3-point shooting slumps are contagious. We have nice human beings on this team -- "my bad" guys -- who get in their own heads. Guys like Humrichous and KJ who feel really bad when they let the team down or even a cerebral big like Tomi are all going to be intimidated by a Maryland-style team of tough guys who just play aggressively all game.
I do think Morez Johnson helps this team tremendously because he brings that physical intensity and simplicity to the game. Protect the rim, rebound the ball, dunk the ball.
I really hope the week between games helps this team get their heads right in practice and build some confidence in their rotations and their Plan B when the other team makes things difficult. I hope that the guys have some success in the first round against a team of the caliber that they usually beat. (I like that the other team will have less ability to focus their prep time against us.) Then they will get to play in a fast-paced game against a Kentucky team that doesn't defend particularly well so hopefully that builds some confidence too. Maybe if they survive the first weekend then they will be able to feel like they've collectively met expectations and can play loose and free against a familiar opponent in a familiar venue. That's the upside.
Downside is we miss our first 10 3-pointers and get punched in the mouth early. Then you get a veteran coach like a Sean Miller that punks us all game and our guys tighten up more and more. Then it's the same narrative as the other 12 losses.
I guess the only thing we can control is positive energy from the Illini fans in Milwaukee. This is a young team that is struggling with confidence. If you are there in person, try to cheer them on and be positive. (Whatever Indiana fans did with death threats or whatever this season, try to do the opposite of that.) Let's be a supportive fan base and not do anything that would sap confidence from a team that needs every shred of it.
