Sorry if this post is too much about data, but for those of us who are curious about the efficacy of high school recruiting rankings or just dig analytics like efrem, I thought I'd expound on some research that was done on this subject a few weeks back. Basically, I took a look at the 2008-2010 Rivals 150 classes and recorded how those players turned out, whether as a P5 starter to an NBA player.
Please note that I used Rivals since RSCI only goes through 100 and the rest would be at best on par with RIvals. Also, how I defined an Elite program was subjective, but went with Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC, Indiana, Louisville, Arizona, Florida, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin,
From 2008-2010 across all 450 players, here are some takeaways:
Please note that I used Rivals since RSCI only goes through 100 and the rest would be at best on par with RIvals. Also, how I defined an Elite program was subjective, but went with Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, UNC, Indiana, Louisville, Arizona, Florida, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin,
From 2008-2010 across all 450 players, here are some takeaways:
- 85% signed with P5 programs; Across the different subsets of 25, the % of players signing with P5 teams did not vary that much...
- #1-25 = 89%
- #26-50 = 83%
- #51-75 = 91%
- #76-100 = 81%
- #101-125 = 87%
- #126-150 = 81%.
- 19% signed with "Elite" programs, however as expected, the % of recruits signing with Elites did go down as the rankings went down...
- #1-25 = 31%
- #26-50 = 28%
- #51-75 = 20%
- #76-100 = 9%
- #101-125 = 12%
- #126-150 = 11%.
- Clearly the better programs seem to harvest more in the top 50, which supports a "richer get richer" theme.
- Of the players signing with P5 programs, 72% ended up being a starter for that team at some point in their college career. About 2/3rds of these guys were listed at 6'4" or taller...
- #1-25 = 91%
- #26-50 = 77%
- #51-75 = 76%
- #76-100 = 57%
- #101-125 = 65%
- #126-150 = 61%.
- There does seem to be a material difference in this category between guys rated in the Top 75 versus not. So odds are more in favor of a Moore starting at Cal than Lucas at UI, though I would guess opportunity is more of a factor than ranking in this case, as both will probably start at some point.
- Getting to the NBA also favored the higher rated guys, though, between #51-125, the percentages aren't material. There is a big drop off after 125. Also, 77% of these guys were listed at 6'4" or taller.
- #1-25 = 59%
- #26-50 = 33%
- #51-75 = 15%
- #76-100 = 13%
- #101-125 = 17%
- #126-150 = 4%
- Relates to the above point, but it's one thing to start for a P5 team (ala Khalid Lewis who started 18 of 32 games), it's another to be an impact type of starter. Not surprisingly, these seem to be clustered in the top 50, with examples outside of the top 125 being a rarity.
- Finally, there seemed to be a sentiment that players ranked in the 1-25 range only signed with "good" teams. Again, this is subjective, but I defined "good" as a program making the NCAAs at least one of the two years prior to the recruit's frosh year. So two straight seasons in the NIT would be "not good". But one NIT with an NCAA first round loss would be "good".
- 2008 = 56% (14 out of 25)
- 2009 = 60% (15 out of 25)
- 2010 = 84% (21 out of 25)
- If 2010 is more of an anomaly rather than a trend, then it's not unreasonable to think a Tillman-level recruit could pick Illinois, even if the program is down. One reason for hope.
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