In another thread there was discussion about needing to dominate recruiting of the home state to be successful I have unscientifically looked at recruiting in the State of Illinois in the last 10/12 years. I also looked at the last five years versus the last ten. I looked at where recruits ranked in the top 15 of Rivals Illinois signed.
I will give numbers and then analysis and for 2017 it is as of today with at least one big Illinois player still undecided:
----------Illinois --------Top Other
2017-------4---------------MSU,ND,Iowa 2--------Lovie
2016 ----- 0---------------MSU 4---------------------Cubit
2015 ----- 4---------------ND,Miz 2------------------Beckman
2014 ------0---------------NW 3 ----------------------Beckman
2013 ------2---------------Mich, Wisc 2-------------Beckman
2012 ----- 0 --------------Iowa 3----------------------Beckman
2011 ----- 2 -------------- OSU,Iowa 2--------------Zook
2010 ------1---------------Pur,Iowa 2----------------Zook
2009-------5---------------NW 3-----------------------Zook
2008-------6---------------ND 3------------------------Zook
2007-------4---------------ND 2------------------------Zook
2006-------5---------------ND, Pur 2 -----------------Zook
What this shows is that no team dominates Illinois recruiting over time, but if Illinois is doing well, it has gotten 33% of the market share and probably can push that to maybe 50% with something they have never had sustained success.
So who are our biggest competitors both recently and historically
Team -----------5 years----10 years
Illinois -------------10-----------24
SEC ---------------12-----------21 Note MIZ is 4 and 5 of these
ND ------------------9-----------16
Iowa ----------------4-----------12
Northwestern ----5-----------10
Mich St ------------9------------9
Wisconsin --------4------------9
Ohio St ------------2------------7
Nebraska ---------3------------7
Michigan ----------3------------5
ACC ----------------3------------6
Big 12 --------------2------------5
Those are the teams or conferences that have gotten at least 5 players from Illinois in the past 10 years. Illinois has only averaged 2.4 kids a year. The minimum that should be is 4 per year, where we are right now. Illinois' late start probably cost us 2-4 kids.
But going forward where can we take market share?
(1) SEC, some kids are always going to go with the weather, or the money, but with an NFL coach, I think many of these kids are picking the SEC because they see a better shot at the NFL. We should be able to halve their market share.
(2) MSU, they have done well of late but have no history in Illinois. Those are kids that will come to Illinois if we have a product to sell. Their five year average is almost 2 players a year, we can cut this number if not eliminate it completely.
(3) Iowa, we cannot eliminate Iowa from Illinois but we can cut their number in half. We just need to improve the product which we have done with Lovie.
(4) ND, this one is harder, some kid will want to go to ND, but what we learned from Martez Wilson is if you have a product to sell there are some ND leans that will buy what we are selling.
NW and Wisconsin average one player a year, that sounds about right. OSU and Mich will always be able to poach a player here or there, Michigan because of Alum, history and coach, OSU because of history and coach. So I don't see those numbers dropping dramatically. But lets say we take 10% from those schools. We will need to get 40% of the other random kids to average 7 top 15s per class. So current 2.4 + .8 (half of SEC) + .8 (almost all of MSU) + .6 (half of Iowa) + .4 (25% of ND) + .3 (10% of NW,Wisc,OSU and MIch) + 1.6 (40% of remaining kids) = 6.9 Doable but difficult.
I will give numbers and then analysis and for 2017 it is as of today with at least one big Illinois player still undecided:
----------Illinois --------Top Other
2017-------4---------------MSU,ND,Iowa 2--------Lovie
2016 ----- 0---------------MSU 4---------------------Cubit
2015 ----- 4---------------ND,Miz 2------------------Beckman
2014 ------0---------------NW 3 ----------------------Beckman
2013 ------2---------------Mich, Wisc 2-------------Beckman
2012 ----- 0 --------------Iowa 3----------------------Beckman
2011 ----- 2 -------------- OSU,Iowa 2--------------Zook
2010 ------1---------------Pur,Iowa 2----------------Zook
2009-------5---------------NW 3-----------------------Zook
2008-------6---------------ND 3------------------------Zook
2007-------4---------------ND 2------------------------Zook
2006-------5---------------ND, Pur 2 -----------------Zook
What this shows is that no team dominates Illinois recruiting over time, but if Illinois is doing well, it has gotten 33% of the market share and probably can push that to maybe 50% with something they have never had sustained success.
So who are our biggest competitors both recently and historically
Team -----------5 years----10 years
Illinois -------------10-----------24
SEC ---------------12-----------21 Note MIZ is 4 and 5 of these
ND ------------------9-----------16
Iowa ----------------4-----------12
Northwestern ----5-----------10
Mich St ------------9------------9
Wisconsin --------4------------9
Ohio St ------------2------------7
Nebraska ---------3------------7
Michigan ----------3------------5
ACC ----------------3------------6
Big 12 --------------2------------5
Those are the teams or conferences that have gotten at least 5 players from Illinois in the past 10 years. Illinois has only averaged 2.4 kids a year. The minimum that should be is 4 per year, where we are right now. Illinois' late start probably cost us 2-4 kids.
But going forward where can we take market share?
(1) SEC, some kids are always going to go with the weather, or the money, but with an NFL coach, I think many of these kids are picking the SEC because they see a better shot at the NFL. We should be able to halve their market share.
(2) MSU, they have done well of late but have no history in Illinois. Those are kids that will come to Illinois if we have a product to sell. Their five year average is almost 2 players a year, we can cut this number if not eliminate it completely.
(3) Iowa, we cannot eliminate Iowa from Illinois but we can cut their number in half. We just need to improve the product which we have done with Lovie.
(4) ND, this one is harder, some kid will want to go to ND, but what we learned from Martez Wilson is if you have a product to sell there are some ND leans that will buy what we are selling.
NW and Wisconsin average one player a year, that sounds about right. OSU and Mich will always be able to poach a player here or there, Michigan because of Alum, history and coach, OSU because of history and coach. So I don't see those numbers dropping dramatically. But lets say we take 10% from those schools. We will need to get 40% of the other random kids to average 7 top 15s per class. So current 2.4 + .8 (half of SEC) + .8 (almost all of MSU) + .6 (half of Iowa) + .4 (25% of ND) + .3 (10% of NW,Wisc,OSU and MIch) + 1.6 (40% of remaining kids) = 6.9 Doable but difficult.
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