Recruiting the State of Illinois
Certain Illinois HS coaches have recently complained that Lovie does not recruit Illinois hard and focuses on California, Florida and Texas.
I went back and looked at recruiting in the State of Illinois and Illinois’ recruiting overall. I looked at where Illinois signed players from and where players from Illinois signed. For players from Illinois I tracked where the top 15 players signed every year, I used Rivals stats. I also looked at what happened by head coach. Because data only goes back to 2002, I can only comment on the end of Turner forward.
In general, Illinois recruited the state well during the end of Turner and the beginning of Zook, and then recruiting in state dropped off dramatically. But it appears that it is not because Illinois did not want to recruit Illinois, it was because top Illinois players did not want to play for Illinois.
Year Coach Commits Ill Top 15 Not
2002 Turner 23 11 3 8
2003 Turner 27 14 6 8
2004 Turner 24 10 5 5
2005 Zook 20 8 2 6
2006 Zook 27 9 4 5
2007 Zook 23 8 4 4
2008 Zook 28 9 6 3
2009 Zook 21 8 5 3
2010 Zook 22 7 1 6
2011 Zook 27 8 2 6
2012 Beckman 19 4 0 4
2013 Beckman 24 6 2 4
2014 Beckman 19 5 0 5
2015 Beckman 24 6 4 2
2016 Cubit 25 3 0 3
2017 Smith 26 9 4 5
2018 Smith 25 5 1 4
2019 Smith 14 5 1 4
The evidence shows that Turner recruited more Illinois players but since then the drop off is mostly because top players are not coming to Illinois not that Illinois is not willing to recruit Illinois players.
Coach Total % Ill % top 15 % Not
Turner 74 47% 19% 28%
Zook 168 34% 14% 20%
Beckman 86 24% 7% 17%
Cubit 25 12% 0% 12%
Smith 65 29% 9% 20%
Lovie is recruiting Illinois as much as any other Illinois coach in the last 15 years. The difference is that since the 2009 season, many of the top players in Illinois have been ABI. From 2003 to 2009, Illinois got commitments from about a third of the top 15 players in the state. From 2010 through 2019, that number dropped to about 15%. Illinois continues to recruit about 20% of its players from Illinois but outside the top 15 players.
So bottom line conclusion, Illinois is recruiting Illinois like it always has but Illinois’ top players are going elsewhere. So the questions is where are they going?
I next broke down the top15 in the state of Illinois from 2002 to 2010 and 2011 to 2019. So each group has 135 players, 15 per year for 9 years. I also looked at where they went. Whether Illinois, another big ten school, ND, or another conference. Here is the breakdown by school or Conference that received more than 15 commitments over that timeframe:
02-10 11-19 Total
Illinois 36 14 50
Iowa 13 13 26
SEC 7 19 26
ND 13 12 25
Wisc 10 8 18
NW 7 10 17
MSU 5 11 16
ACC 9 6 15
So where are Illinois players going now that they were not going before? The biggest increase is the SEC, and it is not just one school it is fairly balanced with players going to Tenn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, LSU, Mizzou, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia and Florida. (Mizzou increased from 1 to 4, but we also increased our top 15 pull from Missouri from 3 to 5). Locally, MSU is the only school with a significant increase, but most of that comes from one good year, 2016.
So bottom line, Illinois is losing out on the top players from Illinois in the last 9-10 years and those players appear to be committing to the SEC.
FYI, Illinois is taking more commitments from Texas, California and Florida (and Mizzou) of late, but those players are mostly taking the place of players from other Midwestern states. Zook and Beckman took 36 players from Ohio, Lovie has taken 2. Zook and Beckman took 33 commitments from the other Big ten states(other than Illinois or Ohio), Lovie has taken none. Lovie has concentrated his recruiting much more than other coaches.
In three years Lovie has taken players from 11 states and 49% of those came from Cali, Fla and Tex. Beckman in 4 years recruited players from 19 states, and his top three non-Illinois states, Cali, Fla and Ohio made up only 31%. With Zook, his three, Fla, Ohio, and DC area, made up 36%. And Turner, Ohio, Ind and Mich made up 24%. So while Lovie is taking a lot from those three states it is because he is concentrating his non-Illinois recruiting in fewer states, not because he is ignoring Illinois.
If the perception is that Illinois is not recruiting its home state, that perception is wrong. Lovie is recruiting Illinois just as hard as the past three coaches. He is taking just as many non-top 15 Illinois players as other coaches. The problem is more of the top players are going elsewhere. Most of the movement is not to other bigten schools but to other conferences, and the biggest change is an increase in players going to the SEC.
Certain Illinois HS coaches have recently complained that Lovie does not recruit Illinois hard and focuses on California, Florida and Texas.
I went back and looked at recruiting in the State of Illinois and Illinois’ recruiting overall. I looked at where Illinois signed players from and where players from Illinois signed. For players from Illinois I tracked where the top 15 players signed every year, I used Rivals stats. I also looked at what happened by head coach. Because data only goes back to 2002, I can only comment on the end of Turner forward.
In general, Illinois recruited the state well during the end of Turner and the beginning of Zook, and then recruiting in state dropped off dramatically. But it appears that it is not because Illinois did not want to recruit Illinois, it was because top Illinois players did not want to play for Illinois.
Year Coach Commits Ill Top 15 Not
2002 Turner 23 11 3 8
2003 Turner 27 14 6 8
2004 Turner 24 10 5 5
2005 Zook 20 8 2 6
2006 Zook 27 9 4 5
2007 Zook 23 8 4 4
2008 Zook 28 9 6 3
2009 Zook 21 8 5 3
2010 Zook 22 7 1 6
2011 Zook 27 8 2 6
2012 Beckman 19 4 0 4
2013 Beckman 24 6 2 4
2014 Beckman 19 5 0 5
2015 Beckman 24 6 4 2
2016 Cubit 25 3 0 3
2017 Smith 26 9 4 5
2018 Smith 25 5 1 4
2019 Smith 14 5 1 4
The evidence shows that Turner recruited more Illinois players but since then the drop off is mostly because top players are not coming to Illinois not that Illinois is not willing to recruit Illinois players.
Coach Total % Ill % top 15 % Not
Turner 74 47% 19% 28%
Zook 168 34% 14% 20%
Beckman 86 24% 7% 17%
Cubit 25 12% 0% 12%
Smith 65 29% 9% 20%
Lovie is recruiting Illinois as much as any other Illinois coach in the last 15 years. The difference is that since the 2009 season, many of the top players in Illinois have been ABI. From 2003 to 2009, Illinois got commitments from about a third of the top 15 players in the state. From 2010 through 2019, that number dropped to about 15%. Illinois continues to recruit about 20% of its players from Illinois but outside the top 15 players.
So bottom line conclusion, Illinois is recruiting Illinois like it always has but Illinois’ top players are going elsewhere. So the questions is where are they going?
I next broke down the top15 in the state of Illinois from 2002 to 2010 and 2011 to 2019. So each group has 135 players, 15 per year for 9 years. I also looked at where they went. Whether Illinois, another big ten school, ND, or another conference. Here is the breakdown by school or Conference that received more than 15 commitments over that timeframe:
02-10 11-19 Total
Illinois 36 14 50
Iowa 13 13 26
SEC 7 19 26
ND 13 12 25
Wisc 10 8 18
NW 7 10 17
MSU 5 11 16
ACC 9 6 15
So where are Illinois players going now that they were not going before? The biggest increase is the SEC, and it is not just one school it is fairly balanced with players going to Tenn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, LSU, Mizzou, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia and Florida. (Mizzou increased from 1 to 4, but we also increased our top 15 pull from Missouri from 3 to 5). Locally, MSU is the only school with a significant increase, but most of that comes from one good year, 2016.
So bottom line, Illinois is losing out on the top players from Illinois in the last 9-10 years and those players appear to be committing to the SEC.
FYI, Illinois is taking more commitments from Texas, California and Florida (and Mizzou) of late, but those players are mostly taking the place of players from other Midwestern states. Zook and Beckman took 36 players from Ohio, Lovie has taken 2. Zook and Beckman took 33 commitments from the other Big ten states(other than Illinois or Ohio), Lovie has taken none. Lovie has concentrated his recruiting much more than other coaches.
In three years Lovie has taken players from 11 states and 49% of those came from Cali, Fla and Tex. Beckman in 4 years recruited players from 19 states, and his top three non-Illinois states, Cali, Fla and Ohio made up only 31%. With Zook, his three, Fla, Ohio, and DC area, made up 36%. And Turner, Ohio, Ind and Mich made up 24%. So while Lovie is taking a lot from those three states it is because he is concentrating his non-Illinois recruiting in fewer states, not because he is ignoring Illinois.
If the perception is that Illinois is not recruiting its home state, that perception is wrong. Lovie is recruiting Illinois just as hard as the past three coaches. He is taking just as many non-top 15 Illinois players as other coaches. The problem is more of the top players are going elsewhere. Most of the movement is not to other bigten schools but to other conferences, and the biggest change is an increase in players going to the SEC.
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