This isn't about John Groce, who I admire a lot, and this isn't about the current team, who all seem like hardworking good kids. I've seen a lot of posts about expectations and excuses recently, some indicating our run early last decade isn't sustainable. I want to look at a much larger timeframe than that, including some down years.
For this purpose, I will exclude one year, 1990 - 1991 when we finished 3rd in the B1G but were on probation and thus excluded from postseason. I won't give credit, or remove credit for that year.
From 1981 - 2012 (Weber's last year) there were 31 seasons. During those 31 seasons, Illinois made the NCAA 24 times (78%), had a protected seed 16 times (52%) and NEVER missed back to back tournaments. The seasons with missed tournaments include 1 prior to a 64 team field, 2 with reduced scholarships and 3 with Weber post Dee Brown. If you remove the years impacted by probation or Weber, you pretty much get to 90%+ tournaments and 76% protected seed seasons.
But, a lot of new coaches struggle, what if they're dealt a bad hand and a dumpster fire? Should that coach be allowed to miss tournaments 3 straight years of a tournament? An objective look shows this current staff did not inherit a brutal program. He inherited 6 top 100 guys including 4 freshman (3 of which had solid careers). In addition, the program was in a place where he could get a top 20 class his first year, so it's not like it was impossible to get talent early. It's perfectly reasonable that lack of balance made season 2 a challenge, but 3 straight years?
I like John Groce, and I feel terrible for him and this team. I really like this team, and I hope they overcome everything to have a successful season, but should they not, I think the results tell us what needs to be done.
For this purpose, I will exclude one year, 1990 - 1991 when we finished 3rd in the B1G but were on probation and thus excluded from postseason. I won't give credit, or remove credit for that year.
From 1981 - 2012 (Weber's last year) there were 31 seasons. During those 31 seasons, Illinois made the NCAA 24 times (78%), had a protected seed 16 times (52%) and NEVER missed back to back tournaments. The seasons with missed tournaments include 1 prior to a 64 team field, 2 with reduced scholarships and 3 with Weber post Dee Brown. If you remove the years impacted by probation or Weber, you pretty much get to 90%+ tournaments and 76% protected seed seasons.
But, a lot of new coaches struggle, what if they're dealt a bad hand and a dumpster fire? Should that coach be allowed to miss tournaments 3 straight years of a tournament? An objective look shows this current staff did not inherit a brutal program. He inherited 6 top 100 guys including 4 freshman (3 of which had solid careers). In addition, the program was in a place where he could get a top 20 class his first year, so it's not like it was impossible to get talent early. It's perfectly reasonable that lack of balance made season 2 a challenge, but 3 straight years?
I like John Groce, and I feel terrible for him and this team. I really like this team, and I hope they overcome everything to have a successful season, but should they not, I think the results tell us what needs to be done.
