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Projecting the defense (long)

UndercoverIllini

Well-Known Member
Jul 20, 2007
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Coastal Command Station
Like all of you, I watched the game against WKU with a sense of dread and hope that slowly turned to the sort of fascination that overturned flaming cars or attractive female streakers inspire. Putting aside how rare and unlikely our performance was, it was a wonder to behold just as a football performance in comparison to game 1 or last season. That said, there are plenty of articles, podcasts, and threads to discuss that; I'm interested in projecting this group forward, considering that the vast majority of them are potentially starters for two seasons following this one.

So, how good can we be? I think about MSU hoops last year, in which they showed some flashes (lost to Groce, tho....), had a true superstar talent, made the Dance, and returned just about everyone. Naturally, they are a top 5 preseason pick and projected as in that elite circle of potential championship teams come April. If we can stomp all over WKU and their (really good) QB* at this age, can we not lock down Minnesota, Iowa, etc next season? Two years hence, will Michigan struggle to advance? Bennett Williams will get better, Nate Hobbs will get better, and even Bobby Roundtree will improve and add 20 lbs, right?

It's easy to get caught up in the good vibes and we're likely to get shoved around a few times yet this year, but I think we all believe there are a few NFL dudes running around in diapers in orange and blue right now. Isn't Roundtree, who is now projection + performance as a frosh, looking like a future star? Isiah Gay, same deal but without much heralding until camp this year. Milan and Oliver are all secretly anchoring the defense so the DEs can do what they do best. Tre Watson is starting to look like a draft pick, too. Anyone notice that we haven't played Jaylen Dunlap yet? Crazy stuff.

So, I'm interested in how you believe the defense stacks up this year nationwide by DVOA or some NERDstat, and how to project this going forward two seasons. I think we might have a top 50 defense this year, top 20 in 2018, and possibly a top 3 defense in 2019. If they truly do go the Lovie route and start scoring with regularity, I have to wonder if those are low.

*: Does anyone realize how jacked we'd be to have a QB as good as him? He throws quickly, accurately, and racked up 4363 yards and 37 TD to only 7 INT last year (67.3 completion%). He was #1 nationwide in yards/play. A guy like that throwing to Dudek and Turner would make us easy bowl favorites instantly, and combined with a defense that might be real, we'd be reasonably talking 7+ wins IMO.
 
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