Seems like a ridiculous question, but - to follow up on some posts in another thread - it's actually a viable possibility. With Nebrasks's RPI barely floating above 200, today is a must-win.
1) The Big Ten is unusually down, with 4 teams (as of this morning) sitting outside the RPI Top 100 and 2 of them outside the top 200. (And let's just get this out of the way for the Norman Negatives who say 'the committee doesn't use the RPI, blah blah blah'...this is true, but they use the criteria that make up the RPI, so it's valid.). Illinois has 9 games remaining vs. the B1G's lower teams:
Nebraska
MInnesota (2)*
Wisconsin (2)
Rutgers (2)*
Northwestern
Penn St.
*-outside RPI top 200 --- these are MUST wins. Any loss could be catastrophic and would require a BTT run, IMO
For all the struggles up to this point, the Illini have only one "bad" loss - to North Florida. Providence and Iowa State look like Final Four darkhorses, Notre Dame is firmly on the bubble, and Chattanooga looks like as dangerous a 2nd round opponent as there is. Bad losses are a major stat for the committee. If Illinois can run this part of the table with only one stumble (thus only 2 bad losses), they will at least be in the conversation come March.
2) They still have 5 games vs. the top of the league:
Indiana (2)
Ohio St.
Iowa
Maryland
They nearly beat Ohio State at their place. Can they beat them at home and steal one from either Indiana or Iowa at SFC? If they go 8-1 vs. the 1st group (no losses to Rutgers or Minny) and 2-3 vs. this group, they head into the BTT at 11-7 and very much in the NCAA conversation.
3). Competition for at-large spots varies from year to year, so it's impossible to say definitively that they have to do "this" as a minimum to get in. BYU got an at-large with 4 bad losses - I can't remember when, if ever, that happened before. Part of the Illinois story WILL be all the injuries - Abrams, Nunn, Black, Tate, Thorne, Lewis illness...and the fact they battled and persevered through it all and fashioned a winning Big Ten record in the process will be a plus in the eyes of the committee. But they can only afford one stumble at most (and even that may be too many) the rest of the way.
1) The Big Ten is unusually down, with 4 teams (as of this morning) sitting outside the RPI Top 100 and 2 of them outside the top 200. (And let's just get this out of the way for the Norman Negatives who say 'the committee doesn't use the RPI, blah blah blah'...this is true, but they use the criteria that make up the RPI, so it's valid.). Illinois has 9 games remaining vs. the B1G's lower teams:
Nebraska
MInnesota (2)*
Wisconsin (2)
Rutgers (2)*
Northwestern
Penn St.
*-outside RPI top 200 --- these are MUST wins. Any loss could be catastrophic and would require a BTT run, IMO
For all the struggles up to this point, the Illini have only one "bad" loss - to North Florida. Providence and Iowa State look like Final Four darkhorses, Notre Dame is firmly on the bubble, and Chattanooga looks like as dangerous a 2nd round opponent as there is. Bad losses are a major stat for the committee. If Illinois can run this part of the table with only one stumble (thus only 2 bad losses), they will at least be in the conversation come March.
2) They still have 5 games vs. the top of the league:
Indiana (2)
Ohio St.
Iowa
Maryland
They nearly beat Ohio State at their place. Can they beat them at home and steal one from either Indiana or Iowa at SFC? If they go 8-1 vs. the 1st group (no losses to Rutgers or Minny) and 2-3 vs. this group, they head into the BTT at 11-7 and very much in the NCAA conversation.
3). Competition for at-large spots varies from year to year, so it's impossible to say definitively that they have to do "this" as a minimum to get in. BYU got an at-large with 4 bad losses - I can't remember when, if ever, that happened before. Part of the Illinois story WILL be all the injuries - Abrams, Nunn, Black, Tate, Thorne, Lewis illness...and the fact they battled and persevered through it all and fashioned a winning Big Ten record in the process will be a plus in the eyes of the committee. But they can only afford one stumble at most (and even that may be too many) the rest of the way.
