I thought going into this season that Illinois had a bizarre schedule. Outside of maybe PSU and FAU, every game on the schedule seemed like it was neither a very likely win or very likely loss. And boy has it played out that way. Of the games we've played thus far, only Kansas (who is 7-2 despite playing most of their harder games without Jalon Daniels) and PSU look like games you'd think Illinois would definitely lose, while FAU is the one that looks like a win definitely should have occurred (tho Illinois made that one harder than necessary). All of Toledo, Purdue, Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were games that could go either way based on what we've seen. Interestingly we are 3-3 in those, tho we've been fortunate in close games (3-1).
Looking forward, you'd expect Illinois to win 2 of its final 3. I'm pretty optimistic we can win them all, but obviously uncertainty at the QB position is a huge wildcard (tho maybe our backup is good, Ball State is much worse this year without Paddock than they were starting him last season). Indiana seems to be playing better, tho I wonder if they were building to a win and might be due a letdown this Saturday (especially as Wisky outgained them by nearly 100 yards and they only had like 60 yards of second half O against the Badgers). I think Iowa has real problems, their D is really good but actually worse than last season, but they basically don't have an offense right now. You can only hold that together so long, and I'm genuinely expecting to win at Iowa if we are 5-5 going to Iowa City. Give NW's interim staff a ton of credit for fight, but that's a thin roster and we are hosting them on the final Saturday ... it's a game you'd really expect to win.
My optimism is largely founded on this. With Jerry Newton, I think Illinois has a good, if not very good, defense for the rest of the season. Newton has only played one half in the last 3 weeks. He's as rested as you can be, and is gunning for first team AA and Top 10 pick in the draft. Keith Randolph sat for a month since Nebby, he's also rested and likely going to be healthier. Our secondary is actually pretty solid, and LBers seem to have improved from a rough start. Illinois will be tough to score on in November, and IU/IA/NW are not exactly offensive juggernauts. On offense, I deeply dislike Barry Lunney, but his offenses seem to move the ball, then fail to put up a commensurate amount of points. But if the D plays well, they don't need big scoring, they just need to put up 20-24 against IU/NW and maybe 14-17 against Iowa.
Also wanted to discuss Deion a bit here. Seems like the organizational problems at Prime Prep (his failed HS in Dallas) are showing up at CU now. Sean Lewis being demoted was utterly insane, and his new OC goes out and puts up the worst offensive effort of the year for them. TCU win looks like fool's gold, fortunate victory over a team likely to go 5-7. Nebraska win was good, but Nebby just got a buzzsaw that day with it being a week after TCU and the first home game with Deion. Since then ... it's been bad. To speculate on Lewis, I wonder if Deion heard he's likely to move schools in the offseason. I'd take him as the Illinois OC next year.
Hell, I'd love Bret as the HC if he hired that guy as OC and let him work.
Lots of weirdness at Michigan. They are obviously good. But if they really knew a run or pass was coming, man that's just a gargantuan advantage against the run. Helps a bit against the pass, but the run is mostly set up these days by the threat of passing. If you know a team isn't throwing, boy it's easy to attack the LOS. Will be interesting to see if PSU or tOSU has the juice to beat them in the next month (or even MD, often the oddest team in CFB). Also Harbaugh almost certainly gone this offseason, probably to the Raiders. It's the right move for everyone most likely. I'd hire Matt Campbell if I were Michigan, will be interesting to see if there are any better options (Jeff Brohm would be but doubt he leaves UL after one season, and I think he replaces Saban at Bama in a few years).
Looking forward, you'd expect Illinois to win 2 of its final 3. I'm pretty optimistic we can win them all, but obviously uncertainty at the QB position is a huge wildcard (tho maybe our backup is good, Ball State is much worse this year without Paddock than they were starting him last season). Indiana seems to be playing better, tho I wonder if they were building to a win and might be due a letdown this Saturday (especially as Wisky outgained them by nearly 100 yards and they only had like 60 yards of second half O against the Badgers). I think Iowa has real problems, their D is really good but actually worse than last season, but they basically don't have an offense right now. You can only hold that together so long, and I'm genuinely expecting to win at Iowa if we are 5-5 going to Iowa City. Give NW's interim staff a ton of credit for fight, but that's a thin roster and we are hosting them on the final Saturday ... it's a game you'd really expect to win.
My optimism is largely founded on this. With Jerry Newton, I think Illinois has a good, if not very good, defense for the rest of the season. Newton has only played one half in the last 3 weeks. He's as rested as you can be, and is gunning for first team AA and Top 10 pick in the draft. Keith Randolph sat for a month since Nebby, he's also rested and likely going to be healthier. Our secondary is actually pretty solid, and LBers seem to have improved from a rough start. Illinois will be tough to score on in November, and IU/IA/NW are not exactly offensive juggernauts. On offense, I deeply dislike Barry Lunney, but his offenses seem to move the ball, then fail to put up a commensurate amount of points. But if the D plays well, they don't need big scoring, they just need to put up 20-24 against IU/NW and maybe 14-17 against Iowa.
Also wanted to discuss Deion a bit here. Seems like the organizational problems at Prime Prep (his failed HS in Dallas) are showing up at CU now. Sean Lewis being demoted was utterly insane, and his new OC goes out and puts up the worst offensive effort of the year for them. TCU win looks like fool's gold, fortunate victory over a team likely to go 5-7. Nebraska win was good, but Nebby just got a buzzsaw that day with it being a week after TCU and the first home game with Deion. Since then ... it's been bad. To speculate on Lewis, I wonder if Deion heard he's likely to move schools in the offseason. I'd take him as the Illinois OC next year.
Hell, I'd love Bret as the HC if he hired that guy as OC and let him work.Lots of weirdness at Michigan. They are obviously good. But if they really knew a run or pass was coming, man that's just a gargantuan advantage against the run. Helps a bit against the pass, but the run is mostly set up these days by the threat of passing. If you know a team isn't throwing, boy it's easy to attack the LOS. Will be interesting to see if PSU or tOSU has the juice to beat them in the next month (or even MD, often the oddest team in CFB). Also Harbaugh almost certainly gone this offseason, probably to the Raiders. It's the right move for everyone most likely. I'd hire Matt Campbell if I were Michigan, will be interesting to see if there are any better options (Jeff Brohm would be but doubt he leaves UL after one season, and I think he replaces Saban at Bama in a few years).
