I'm going to start this post by inventing a metric. I'm going to call it True Offensive Value. I'll use my KenPom subscription and calculate it as follows:
Vs. Tier A Competition: (ORtg-90)*%Poss*%Minutes
Here's a list of past and current Illini for 2020-2021
Kofi: 4.27
Ayo: 3.90
Frazier: 3.08
Da'Monte: 2.89
Curbelo: 2.88
Grandison: 2.02
Plummer: 1.74
Payne: 1.35
Giorgi: 1.05
Miller: -0.13
Hawkins: -0.02
It's an arbitrary number but it basically combines relative offensive efficiency with usage. I want to make a few points
Omar Payne is a good backup center but we had no other viable centers on the roster. This team was looking like an 8/9 seed that wouldn't be in the Top 25, wouldn't win the Big Ten, and would be lucky to win a single NCAA Tournament game. Still better than the 2014-2019 teams but nothing special. Furthermore, with such an unbalanced roster it would be impossible to envision any kind of deep postseason run without a ridiculous 3-point shooting performance. Naturally, there was zero buzz about the team with those prospects after a year where we were a 1 seed and had the most Big Ten wins.
Now, with a complete roster, things get interesting. Some national CBS Sports guy has us at #15 but he barely knows who is on the team. Bart Torvik's site puts us at #3 but that projection is a little strange because it gives our freshmen totally generic production and usage, doesn't think Hutcherson or Hawkins will play, and has Curbelo with fewer minutes than Da'Monte. I was going to dismiss that entirely but then you scroll up to that metric at the beginning of this post and you realize something pretty remarkable. We have 7 really good proven players on this team. If you multiply %usage by %min and add up the entire rotation you get 100%. Here's how Torvik divides that among the team:
Kofi: 21.6
Frazier: 14.6
Curbelo: 14.6
Plummer: 13.9
Grandison: 8.7
Da'Monte: 7.6
Melendez: 6.3
Payne: 4.8
Goode: 4.2
Podz: 2.9
Other: 0.8
So you take those 7 really good players and you get 85.8% of a good team and it's proven based on demonstrated performance. This year is going to have a lot of experience in college basketball but we've got an awful lot in the bank right now. You might say that Ayo inflated the performance of these other guys (I'm sure he didn't hurt) but we played awfully well when he was injured too. You throw in a fairly high usage guy like Plummer and he can absorb a lot of that role.
The only real question marks on this team are at the 3/4 spot. You do have two hyper-efficient guys in Da'Monte and Grandison that combine to cover one of those slots but you probably have two more rotation spots to fill out. That's the hole from Ayo leaving. What do we do about that?
Well, I have good news for you. We have 5 different options that we can try:
If the roster wasn't all set before, we have two more spots with developmental big men in BBV and Lieb. BBV is the wide-body forward that can bang in the post if we have foul trouble and Lieb is a skilled 7-footer in the Tisdale mode. Let him pack on calories and work with Fletch for another few months and maybe he's emerging depth by March.
I know that at a gut level it seems impossible to replace Ayo but this roster is ideally constructed. We have high-usage stars in Curbelo and Kofi that are go-to playmakers at the 1 and the 5, a super-senior leader in Frazier, a sparkplug off the bench in Plummer, hyper-efficient role players in Grandison, Da'Monte, and Payne, and then a stable of new wing players loaded with potential.
We don't have the elite, top-end NBA talent that some teams will have. However, super-seniors should neutralize that top-end talent so I don't think we should fear the one-and-dones. I see this team right in the mix with the projected 1 and 2 seeds. The roster construction and proven production set us up for another memorable season. If I had to rank us right now I'd put us at the #5 spot.
Our schedule is pretty epic with a lot of top teams in our 20 Big Ten games, a couple decent opponents in Cincy/Marquette, revenge against Missouri, a home date with a quality Arizona team, and a potential marquee matchup with Arkansas before Thanksgiving.
I probably could have skipped writing this and just copied this one line from the ESPN story about Kofi returning: "Cockburn is likely to be a first-team preseason All-American and the preseason favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year."
Get your tickets and your Kofi merchandise. The upcoming Illinois basketball season just got really fun.
Vs. Tier A Competition: (ORtg-90)*%Poss*%Minutes
Here's a list of past and current Illini for 2020-2021
Kofi: 4.27
Ayo: 3.90
Frazier: 3.08
Da'Monte: 2.89
Curbelo: 2.88
Grandison: 2.02
Plummer: 1.74
Payne: 1.35
Giorgi: 1.05
Miller: -0.13
Hawkins: -0.02
It's an arbitrary number but it basically combines relative offensive efficiency with usage. I want to make a few points
- Kofi was our most impactful offensive player against top competition.
- Adam Miller was overrated and Plummer is an upgrade there.
- Payne is super-efficient but low usage so he was a Giorgi replacement, not a Kofi replacement.
- Ayo is a big loss but we bring back a lot of very valuable players.
Omar Payne is a good backup center but we had no other viable centers on the roster. This team was looking like an 8/9 seed that wouldn't be in the Top 25, wouldn't win the Big Ten, and would be lucky to win a single NCAA Tournament game. Still better than the 2014-2019 teams but nothing special. Furthermore, with such an unbalanced roster it would be impossible to envision any kind of deep postseason run without a ridiculous 3-point shooting performance. Naturally, there was zero buzz about the team with those prospects after a year where we were a 1 seed and had the most Big Ten wins.
Now, with a complete roster, things get interesting. Some national CBS Sports guy has us at #15 but he barely knows who is on the team. Bart Torvik's site puts us at #3 but that projection is a little strange because it gives our freshmen totally generic production and usage, doesn't think Hutcherson or Hawkins will play, and has Curbelo with fewer minutes than Da'Monte. I was going to dismiss that entirely but then you scroll up to that metric at the beginning of this post and you realize something pretty remarkable. We have 7 really good proven players on this team. If you multiply %usage by %min and add up the entire rotation you get 100%. Here's how Torvik divides that among the team:
Kofi: 21.6
Frazier: 14.6
Curbelo: 14.6
Plummer: 13.9
Grandison: 8.7
Da'Monte: 7.6
Melendez: 6.3
Payne: 4.8
Goode: 4.2
Podz: 2.9
Other: 0.8
So you take those 7 really good players and you get 85.8% of a good team and it's proven based on demonstrated performance. This year is going to have a lot of experience in college basketball but we've got an awful lot in the bank right now. You might say that Ayo inflated the performance of these other guys (I'm sure he didn't hurt) but we played awfully well when he was injured too. You throw in a fairly high usage guy like Plummer and he can absorb a lot of that role.
The only real question marks on this team are at the 3/4 spot. You do have two hyper-efficient guys in Da'Monte and Grandison that combine to cover one of those slots but you probably have two more rotation spots to fill out. That's the hole from Ayo leaving. What do we do about that?
Well, I have good news for you. We have 5 different options that we can try:
- Coleman Hawkins - his stats were unimpressive but he passed the eye test and is the prototypical stretch 4. He's all set to take a sophomore leap. He will help us.
- Austin Hutcherson - uber-athletic and a great shooter. Potential difference-maker at the 3 spot if healthy and nobody is accounting for him at all in any preseason ratings or rankings.
- Brandin Podziemski - perfect 3rd guard in this system, scoring machine. Tyler Herro comp?
- Luke Goode - another great shooter at the 3/4 spot. Kevin Huerter comp?
- Ramses Melendez - long and bouncy, can attack the rim at the 3/4. Brian Randle comp?
If the roster wasn't all set before, we have two more spots with developmental big men in BBV and Lieb. BBV is the wide-body forward that can bang in the post if we have foul trouble and Lieb is a skilled 7-footer in the Tisdale mode. Let him pack on calories and work with Fletch for another few months and maybe he's emerging depth by March.
I know that at a gut level it seems impossible to replace Ayo but this roster is ideally constructed. We have high-usage stars in Curbelo and Kofi that are go-to playmakers at the 1 and the 5, a super-senior leader in Frazier, a sparkplug off the bench in Plummer, hyper-efficient role players in Grandison, Da'Monte, and Payne, and then a stable of new wing players loaded with potential.
We don't have the elite, top-end NBA talent that some teams will have. However, super-seniors should neutralize that top-end talent so I don't think we should fear the one-and-dones. I see this team right in the mix with the projected 1 and 2 seeds. The roster construction and proven production set us up for another memorable season. If I had to rank us right now I'd put us at the #5 spot.
Our schedule is pretty epic with a lot of top teams in our 20 Big Ten games, a couple decent opponents in Cincy/Marquette, revenge against Missouri, a home date with a quality Arizona team, and a potential marquee matchup with Arkansas before Thanksgiving.
I probably could have skipped writing this and just copied this one line from the ESPN story about Kofi returning: "Cockburn is likely to be a first-team preseason All-American and the preseason favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year."
Get your tickets and your Kofi merchandise. The upcoming Illinois basketball season just got really fun.
