Something to remember when dealing with unforeseen setbacks. We're not as bad as we played last night, and we're probably not as good as we've played in the past. For example, we've played incredible halves against MD, MI, and MO. We've played atrocious halves against MI, WI, and others.
We aren't going to the tourney, as in that chance is basically zero at this time, and the future appears in jeopardy. In times like these, it behooves us to tally assets and liabilities. We can figure out what to build on, what we have to live with, and what is a sunk cost that must be jettisoned.
Assets:
1. Leron Black: Leron is an impossible shotmaker, an above average scorer, and a kid who has shown range out to the 3pt line. He hits hits FTs at a decent rate, and is now driving the lane a little bit with some success. His game is expanding before our eyes. The sky is not the limit with Leron, but he's our best player and he'll be here another year. If he can learn to pass at all and reduce fouling a bit more, he could become a complete player.
2. Trent Frazier: A true lead guard who can carry a team and hit a shot when everyone knows to key on him, Trent is a surprise relative to his ranking and the expectations for others in his class. He steals the ball and uses his speed to get by guys. This is is the only player we've had that can both drive and finish at any level in years, and he's got lots of time to improve.
3. Greg Eboigbodin: The third best player on the team now? Ebo has come on strong in recent weeks, getting boards and converting at a high rate. His shot-blocking ability comes in handy, although he remains a flawed piece until more seasoning is done. He also doesn't do enough quite yet and has a low usage rate.
4. Brad Underwood: Brad didn't turn in his best performance against WI in any way, but the tale of the tape is clear. If you are what your record says you are, we're going to be fine. The offense is generating tons of looks, and we draw up plays that get guys wide open shots with fair regularity. We can't hit those shots, of course, but without viable alternatives on the bench, I don't know what we're supposed to demand. Open shots are how you score, so we'll just need better shooters whether they come from the roster or elsewhere over time.
Liabilities:
I'm not really going to list the liabilities at length, so here's a recap:
1. Shooting
2. Athleticism
3. Height
4. Discipline/Attitude
There are other things we lack and have done poorly, but as someone recently mentioned, we caught last year's team drunk at a bar before the UCF NIT game that would have sent them to the NIT Final Four in MSG. That says a lot about the mental state, the Iowa comeback says a lot about the physical state, and our sub 30% 3pt% says a lot about the state of our shooting (we are so picky about threes and still can't hit any).
The path forward:
1. Revamp the roster: When your roster is this bad, you don't need to land every superstar to improve. Thank God, because we aren't UK. Get some good players in here, teach them the system, fill the roles needed on the roster, and get a marquee kid each year (2/2 so far). Improve speed, strength, and skills all at once. 5th year kids can get us going much more quickly, and I expect a couple.
2. Celebrate birthdays: We rely on frosh guards to run this team, and the lessons hurt. That said, they are seeing it all this year, and getting thumped. Nothing is a first-time occurrence next year, and players improve over time with regularity. Trent becomes a beast if he gets stronger and keeps the TOs down, and DMW with a little more juice in the knee and work on his shot can be a nice glue guy down the stretch. Smith has tools, but needs time in the workshop to rebuild himself.
3. Show patience: Our fanbase would do well to heed the lessons of rebuilds past. We've not had to do this in my lifetime, but when digging out of a ditch, you need time. Trying to vault out of the pit simply costs energy and time when you are this deep. I am NOT saying that we need four years or something to expect anything good. I AM saying that next year will be better than this one, and the following year will be better than that. I still feel confident with that prediction.
Closing comments:
1. I was very wrong about a few things on this team in the preseason: a) the roster is much worse than I imagined, b) we have zero 3pt shooting to speak of, c) Iowa and Nebraska look like the Bulls by comparison to us, and d) there is no magic system that can close that gap for 40 minutes. These realizations sucked, each of them, however they clarify the situation.
2. I weigh the terrible effort against WI on one side, and consider that we had MD with loads of talent beaten before calamity struck. In a year where the tourney is totally gone, I deal with that frustration first, but then realize that we're some incredibly poor luck and unfortunate execution from 3-4 wins in the conference. If we lay down against MSU it'll be time to reevaluate, but that will be the case every time we get a new data point.
We aren't going to the tourney, as in that chance is basically zero at this time, and the future appears in jeopardy. In times like these, it behooves us to tally assets and liabilities. We can figure out what to build on, what we have to live with, and what is a sunk cost that must be jettisoned.
Assets:
1. Leron Black: Leron is an impossible shotmaker, an above average scorer, and a kid who has shown range out to the 3pt line. He hits hits FTs at a decent rate, and is now driving the lane a little bit with some success. His game is expanding before our eyes. The sky is not the limit with Leron, but he's our best player and he'll be here another year. If he can learn to pass at all and reduce fouling a bit more, he could become a complete player.
2. Trent Frazier: A true lead guard who can carry a team and hit a shot when everyone knows to key on him, Trent is a surprise relative to his ranking and the expectations for others in his class. He steals the ball and uses his speed to get by guys. This is is the only player we've had that can both drive and finish at any level in years, and he's got lots of time to improve.
3. Greg Eboigbodin: The third best player on the team now? Ebo has come on strong in recent weeks, getting boards and converting at a high rate. His shot-blocking ability comes in handy, although he remains a flawed piece until more seasoning is done. He also doesn't do enough quite yet and has a low usage rate.
4. Brad Underwood: Brad didn't turn in his best performance against WI in any way, but the tale of the tape is clear. If you are what your record says you are, we're going to be fine. The offense is generating tons of looks, and we draw up plays that get guys wide open shots with fair regularity. We can't hit those shots, of course, but without viable alternatives on the bench, I don't know what we're supposed to demand. Open shots are how you score, so we'll just need better shooters whether they come from the roster or elsewhere over time.
Liabilities:
I'm not really going to list the liabilities at length, so here's a recap:
1. Shooting
2. Athleticism
3. Height
4. Discipline/Attitude
There are other things we lack and have done poorly, but as someone recently mentioned, we caught last year's team drunk at a bar before the UCF NIT game that would have sent them to the NIT Final Four in MSG. That says a lot about the mental state, the Iowa comeback says a lot about the physical state, and our sub 30% 3pt% says a lot about the state of our shooting (we are so picky about threes and still can't hit any).
The path forward:
1. Revamp the roster: When your roster is this bad, you don't need to land every superstar to improve. Thank God, because we aren't UK. Get some good players in here, teach them the system, fill the roles needed on the roster, and get a marquee kid each year (2/2 so far). Improve speed, strength, and skills all at once. 5th year kids can get us going much more quickly, and I expect a couple.
2. Celebrate birthdays: We rely on frosh guards to run this team, and the lessons hurt. That said, they are seeing it all this year, and getting thumped. Nothing is a first-time occurrence next year, and players improve over time with regularity. Trent becomes a beast if he gets stronger and keeps the TOs down, and DMW with a little more juice in the knee and work on his shot can be a nice glue guy down the stretch. Smith has tools, but needs time in the workshop to rebuild himself.
3. Show patience: Our fanbase would do well to heed the lessons of rebuilds past. We've not had to do this in my lifetime, but when digging out of a ditch, you need time. Trying to vault out of the pit simply costs energy and time when you are this deep. I am NOT saying that we need four years or something to expect anything good. I AM saying that next year will be better than this one, and the following year will be better than that. I still feel confident with that prediction.
Closing comments:
1. I was very wrong about a few things on this team in the preseason: a) the roster is much worse than I imagined, b) we have zero 3pt shooting to speak of, c) Iowa and Nebraska look like the Bulls by comparison to us, and d) there is no magic system that can close that gap for 40 minutes. These realizations sucked, each of them, however they clarify the situation.
2. I weigh the terrible effort against WI on one side, and consider that we had MD with loads of talent beaten before calamity struck. In a year where the tourney is totally gone, I deal with that frustration first, but then realize that we're some incredibly poor luck and unfortunate execution from 3-4 wins in the conference. If we lay down against MSU it'll be time to reevaluate, but that will be the case every time we get a new data point.
