I'm just asking the question instead of making a definitive statement, because I don't want to jinx us against Penn State. (Beating Penn State in any venue would be a notch in our favor this year for sure.)
Last year's team has the edge on offense, mostly because TSJ was such an unstoppable force in transition and paired beautifully with Marcus Domask booty ball and an array of 3-point shooters. This year's team has KJ's dominance, shooting at all positions, and a little more of an interior presence as well. We need to see more electric 3-point shooting to surpass last year, but it could be done. I still think the 3-point shooting slumps are more about experience and comfort and less about skill. For now though the #3 offense in the country in 2024 has a clear edge over the #19 offense in 2025.
This year's team is clearly better on defense. Boswell is an elite perimeter defender and can neutralize any single guard it seems. We also have even more size this year, especially in the post. Ivisic and Johnson offer two different flavors of rim protection that are a rich man's version of Coleman Hawkins and Dain Dainja. This shows in our #13 defense vs. #80 from last season. I think we could improve marginally on defense just from understanding scouting reports and from avoiding live ball turnovers and bad missed 3's on offense that set up easy scores for the other team.
This year's team is slightly higher in KenPom NetRtg at the moment (+25.66 vs. +24.53.) Where I would still give last year's team a huge edge is with poise and consistency. This year's team looks like an NBA team for stretches and then will just give up a 10-point lead to anybody. This year's team also just bricks wide open 3's at a disturbing rate. The key difference is that last year's team was led by seniors who mostly had some time in the system, whereas this year's team is a bunch of freshmen and new guys who are still learning the college game and how to play together.
I do think last year's team had a Final Four offense but had some clear defensive limitations that kept them from being a true contender. This year's team has actually progressed to the point where they are now a peer of last year's team but still has potential to surpass them. There is also potential for regression (even though we hope not) as not all teams will take a linear path toward improvement.
I do feel comfortable saying that this year's team is roughly the equal of where we were last year at this time (and last year's team stayed pretty flat in terms of efficiency starting in January.) This year's team has potential to be more but they are going to have to find consistency and poise to take the next step. They certainly have plenty of opportunity to prove themselves in this year's wide open Big Ten, which is full of winnable but challenging games.
Last year's team has the edge on offense, mostly because TSJ was such an unstoppable force in transition and paired beautifully with Marcus Domask booty ball and an array of 3-point shooters. This year's team has KJ's dominance, shooting at all positions, and a little more of an interior presence as well. We need to see more electric 3-point shooting to surpass last year, but it could be done. I still think the 3-point shooting slumps are more about experience and comfort and less about skill. For now though the #3 offense in the country in 2024 has a clear edge over the #19 offense in 2025.
This year's team is clearly better on defense. Boswell is an elite perimeter defender and can neutralize any single guard it seems. We also have even more size this year, especially in the post. Ivisic and Johnson offer two different flavors of rim protection that are a rich man's version of Coleman Hawkins and Dain Dainja. This shows in our #13 defense vs. #80 from last season. I think we could improve marginally on defense just from understanding scouting reports and from avoiding live ball turnovers and bad missed 3's on offense that set up easy scores for the other team.
This year's team is slightly higher in KenPom NetRtg at the moment (+25.66 vs. +24.53.) Where I would still give last year's team a huge edge is with poise and consistency. This year's team looks like an NBA team for stretches and then will just give up a 10-point lead to anybody. This year's team also just bricks wide open 3's at a disturbing rate. The key difference is that last year's team was led by seniors who mostly had some time in the system, whereas this year's team is a bunch of freshmen and new guys who are still learning the college game and how to play together.
I do think last year's team had a Final Four offense but had some clear defensive limitations that kept them from being a true contender. This year's team has actually progressed to the point where they are now a peer of last year's team but still has potential to surpass them. There is also potential for regression (even though we hope not) as not all teams will take a linear path toward improvement.
I do feel comfortable saying that this year's team is roughly the equal of where we were last year at this time (and last year's team stayed pretty flat in terms of efficiency starting in January.) This year's team has potential to be more but they are going to have to find consistency and poise to take the next step. They certainly have plenty of opportunity to prove themselves in this year's wide open Big Ten, which is full of winnable but challenging games.
