Going to try to work this all out.
Now let's assume that the Top 16 are set in stone now. Illinois and Auburn are the only two playing tomorrow. Auburn beating Florida won't do much for them and our game won't be over in time. Even though Lunardi thought we lost today in his previous update, his current one seems pretty reasonable for an S-curve. (I added the locations myself.)
1. UConn - Brooklyn
2. Purdue - Indianapolis
3. Houston - Memphis
4. North Carolina - Charlotte
5. Tennessee - Charlotte
6. Arizona - Salt Lake City
7. Iowa State - Omaha
8. Marquette - Indianapolis
9. Baylor - Memphis
10. Illinois - Pittsburgh
11. Creighton - Salt Lake City
12. Auburn - Pittsburgh
13. Duke - Brooklyn
14. Kansas - Omaha
15. Alabama - Spokane
16. Kentucky - Spokane
Key rule is that the first four teams from each conference have to go in different regions if they are in the Top 16.
Big East - UConn (1), Marquette (2), Creighton (3)
Big Ten - Purdue (1), Illinois (3)
Big 12 - Houston (1), Iowa State (2), Baylor (3), Kansas (4)
ACC - UNC (1), Duke (4)
SEC - Tenn (2), Auburn (3), Alabama (4), Kentucky (4)
Natural order is
EAST
1 - UConn (BE)
8 - Marquette (BE)
9 - Baylor (B12)
16 - Kentucky (SEC)
MIDWEST
2 - Purdue (B10)
7 - Iowa State (B12)
10 - Illinois (B10)
15 - Alabama (SEC)
SOUTH
3 - Houston (B12)
6 - Arizona (P12)
11 - Creighton (BE)
14 - Kansas (B12)
WEST
4 - UNC (ACC)
5 - Tenn (SEC)
12 - Auburn (SEC)
13 - Duke (ACC)
I have to resolve 5 conflicts (in bold): First I'll swap Iowa State and Marquette on the 2 seed line. Then I'll swap Baylor and Illinois on the 3 seed line. Then I'll swap Creighton and Auburn on the 3 seed line. Finally, I can swap Duke and Kansas on the 4 line. So that keeps everything good in terms of conferences and overall region difficulty. So my prediction is that Illinois will be the 3 seed in the East and will play in Pittsburgh.
EAST (34 points)
1 - UConn (BE)
7 - Iowa State (B12)
10 - Illinois (B10)
16 - Kentucky (SEC)
MIDWEST (34 points)
2 - Purdue (B10)
8 - Marquette (BE)
9 - Baylor (B12)
15 - Alabama (SEC)
SOUTH (34 points)
3 - Houston (B12)
6 - Arizona (P12)
12 - Auburn (SEC)
13 - Duke (ACC)
WEST (34 points)
4 - UNC (ACC)
5 - Tenn (SEC)
11 - Creighton (BE)
14 - Kansas (B12)
Now let's figure out our possible opponents. We should play a natural 14 seed but that may get complicated. Here are the teams in play along with their natural seeds.
Yale (13)
Samford (13)
Vermont (13)
College of Charleston (13)
Akron (14)
Oakland (14)
Morehead State (14)
Colgate (14)
Western Kentucky (15)
Long Beach State (15)
South Dakota State (15)
Longwood (15)
To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round. If possible, rematches of non-conference regular-season games should be avoided in the First Four and first round. As a secondary consideration, the committee will attempt to avoid potential rematches from non-conference regular-season games in the second round. The committee will not consider moving teams up or down its true seed line to avoid non-conference rematches.
We're about 486 miles from Pittsburgh so we can't play a team in the first round that's closer than that. If we end up in Omaha this all goes out the window. Teams closer to Pittsburgh than us in that list are:
Yale, Akron, Oakland, Morehead State, Colgate, Longwood
Teams farther away are:
Samford, Vermont, College of Charleston, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, South Dakota State
None of the BracketMatrix 14 seeds work for us. Two are rematches and two are substantially closer to Pittsburgh. I'd say that maybe Akron's win today gets them bumped up to the 13 line and College of Charleston slides down. So my prediction is College of Charleston will be our first opponent.
The other question would be what 6 seeds and 11 seeds might we see (KenPom ratings added). 6 seeds are Texas Tech (26), Utah State (48), St. Mary's (20), and Clemson (34). 11 seeds are New Mexico (24), Oregon (59), St. John's (27), NC State (57), Drake (51), and James Madison (58). I don't see any reason to pick one of these teams over the other. What is notable is that KenPom ratings range from 20-59 (kind of a big difference!) I won't make a prediction but I will say that my preference is to avoid the 6-11 bracket that includes play-in teams.
Let's see how I do.
Now let's assume that the Top 16 are set in stone now. Illinois and Auburn are the only two playing tomorrow. Auburn beating Florida won't do much for them and our game won't be over in time. Even though Lunardi thought we lost today in his previous update, his current one seems pretty reasonable for an S-curve. (I added the locations myself.)
1. UConn - Brooklyn
2. Purdue - Indianapolis
3. Houston - Memphis
4. North Carolina - Charlotte
5. Tennessee - Charlotte
6. Arizona - Salt Lake City
7. Iowa State - Omaha
8. Marquette - Indianapolis
9. Baylor - Memphis
10. Illinois - Pittsburgh
11. Creighton - Salt Lake City
12. Auburn - Pittsburgh
13. Duke - Brooklyn
14. Kansas - Omaha
15. Alabama - Spokane
16. Kentucky - Spokane
Key rule is that the first four teams from each conference have to go in different regions if they are in the Top 16.
Big East - UConn (1), Marquette (2), Creighton (3)
Big Ten - Purdue (1), Illinois (3)
Big 12 - Houston (1), Iowa State (2), Baylor (3), Kansas (4)
ACC - UNC (1), Duke (4)
SEC - Tenn (2), Auburn (3), Alabama (4), Kentucky (4)
Natural order is
EAST
1 - UConn (BE)
8 - Marquette (BE)
9 - Baylor (B12)
16 - Kentucky (SEC)
MIDWEST
2 - Purdue (B10)
7 - Iowa State (B12)
10 - Illinois (B10)
15 - Alabama (SEC)
SOUTH
3 - Houston (B12)
6 - Arizona (P12)
11 - Creighton (BE)
14 - Kansas (B12)
WEST
4 - UNC (ACC)
5 - Tenn (SEC)
12 - Auburn (SEC)
13 - Duke (ACC)
I have to resolve 5 conflicts (in bold): First I'll swap Iowa State and Marquette on the 2 seed line. Then I'll swap Baylor and Illinois on the 3 seed line. Then I'll swap Creighton and Auburn on the 3 seed line. Finally, I can swap Duke and Kansas on the 4 line. So that keeps everything good in terms of conferences and overall region difficulty. So my prediction is that Illinois will be the 3 seed in the East and will play in Pittsburgh.
EAST (34 points)
1 - UConn (BE)
7 - Iowa State (B12)
10 - Illinois (B10)
16 - Kentucky (SEC)
MIDWEST (34 points)
2 - Purdue (B10)
8 - Marquette (BE)
9 - Baylor (B12)
15 - Alabama (SEC)
SOUTH (34 points)
3 - Houston (B12)
6 - Arizona (P12)
12 - Auburn (SEC)
13 - Duke (ACC)
WEST (34 points)
4 - UNC (ACC)
5 - Tenn (SEC)
11 - Creighton (BE)
14 - Kansas (B12)
Now let's figure out our possible opponents. We should play a natural 14 seed but that may get complicated. Here are the teams in play along with their natural seeds.
Yale (13)
Samford (13)
Vermont (13)
College of Charleston (13)
Akron (14)
Oakland (14)
Morehead State (14)
Colgate (14)
Western Kentucky (15)
Long Beach State (15)
South Dakota State (15)
Longwood (15)
To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round. If possible, rematches of non-conference regular-season games should be avoided in the First Four and first round. As a secondary consideration, the committee will attempt to avoid potential rematches from non-conference regular-season games in the second round. The committee will not consider moving teams up or down its true seed line to avoid non-conference rematches.
We're about 486 miles from Pittsburgh so we can't play a team in the first round that's closer than that. If we end up in Omaha this all goes out the window. Teams closer to Pittsburgh than us in that list are:
Yale, Akron, Oakland, Morehead State, Colgate, Longwood
Teams farther away are:
Samford, Vermont, College of Charleston, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, South Dakota State
None of the BracketMatrix 14 seeds work for us. Two are rematches and two are substantially closer to Pittsburgh. I'd say that maybe Akron's win today gets them bumped up to the 13 line and College of Charleston slides down. So my prediction is College of Charleston will be our first opponent.
The other question would be what 6 seeds and 11 seeds might we see (KenPom ratings added). 6 seeds are Texas Tech (26), Utah State (48), St. Mary's (20), and Clemson (34). 11 seeds are New Mexico (24), Oregon (59), St. John's (27), NC State (57), Drake (51), and James Madison (58). I don't see any reason to pick one of these teams over the other. What is notable is that KenPom ratings range from 20-59 (kind of a big difference!) I won't make a prediction but I will say that my preference is to avoid the 6-11 bracket that includes play-in teams.
Let's see how I do.
