This is long...I apologize at the top.
Let the fun begin!
A year ago, I correctly picked all 68 teams in the field for the 1st time...I can't see that happening this year. There are far too many variables in play on the bubble. I can't recall a year with so many teams on the bubble with less than 3 "bad losses". That alone makes this one of the most competitive fields in years.
That said, here is my field as of 9:00 EDT this morning:
1) Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2) UNC, Cincinnati, Duke, Purdue
3) Auburn, Tennessee, Michigan St., Clemson
4) Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan, Texas Tech
5) Gonzaga, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
6) Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Miami, TCU
7) W. Virginia, Nevada, Seton Hall, Houston
8) Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Missouri
9) Syracuse, Creighton, UCLA, Providence
10) St. Bonaventure, Butler, USC, Texs
11) Loyola, Baylor, MTSU vs. Arizona St, Kansas St vs. Marquette
12) New Mexico St, Murray St., Buffalo, S. Dakota St
13) Bucknell, San Diego St, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
14) Wright St, SF Austin, Montana, Marshall
15) (Sun Belt champ), (Ivy League champ), Lipscomb, Iona
16) CS Fullerton, Radford, LIU-Brooklyn vs NC Central, Texas Southern vs UMBC
Last 4 in - MTSU, Arizona St, Kansas St, Marquette
First 4 out - NC State, Va Tech, Washington, Florida St
Next 4 out - Utah, Louisville, Notre Dame, Temple
NIT hopefuls - Oklahoma St, Nebraska, St. Mary's, Boise St
I'm still tweaking my seed lines and of course will have to drop a team if Davidson wins today (I will be at the A-10 Final this afternoon). I literally had 9 teams vying for the last 4 spots -- all with strong resumes and all with flaws.
While "the bar" moves year to year depending on the field, the committee universally likes to reward teams that go out and schedule well. So I used that in an attempt to define the bottom of the field.
MTSU - played the 9th rated non-conference schedule. 3-3 vs. top 50, 4-6 vs top 100. That's 10 games vs. the RPI top 100 without the benefit of a major conference schedule. That's impressive. I don't think the committee will let the one hiccup - loss to RPI #205 Southern Miss in CUSA quarters - ruin their season. We'll see.
ASU - struggled in Pac 12 play, but still had a respectable non-conference schedule (compared to other bubble teams) and went 5-3 vs. top 50, the only winning record in that category among the bubbles.
K-State - horrendous non-conference schedule (#326), but they get the reluctant nod with 5 wins vs. top 50 and the only remaining bubble team without a loss outside the top 100. While the committee has to be careful not to give too much love to conference records (hello Nebraska!), the Wildcats did win 10 in a highly-competitive Big 12 that landed (by my predictions) a whopping 8 teams in the field.
Marquette - 5 wins vs top 50 and stronger non-conference slate (#133) than most remaining teams. Like ASU, Wojo's boys played just 5 games outside the top 200.
Tough to leave out NC State, Va Tech, and Washington. The first two each with 4 wins vs. the RPI top 50. But both with terrible schedules (#263 & #326, respectively) and NC State stumbled twice outside the top 100.
I can't put Louisville in the field with an 0-11 mark vs. the top 50. Florida State has 6 wins vs. top 50, but again horrible scheduling (#312) could be their undoing.
I could be very wrong, but this could be a year when the unbalanced scheduling of the Power 5 conferences comes back to bite them. Rare to see a top 40 RPI major conference team (Louisville) left out of the field and multiple P5 teams (Nebraska, NC State, Utah, Va Tech, Washington) be snubbed despite double-digit conference wins.
Anyway, something to chat about and debate as we wait for 6pm ET.
Let the fun begin!
A year ago, I correctly picked all 68 teams in the field for the 1st time...I can't see that happening this year. There are far too many variables in play on the bubble. I can't recall a year with so many teams on the bubble with less than 3 "bad losses". That alone makes this one of the most competitive fields in years.
That said, here is my field as of 9:00 EDT this morning:
1) Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2) UNC, Cincinnati, Duke, Purdue
3) Auburn, Tennessee, Michigan St., Clemson
4) Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan, Texas Tech
5) Gonzaga, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
6) Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Miami, TCU
7) W. Virginia, Nevada, Seton Hall, Houston
8) Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Missouri
9) Syracuse, Creighton, UCLA, Providence
10) St. Bonaventure, Butler, USC, Texs
11) Loyola, Baylor, MTSU vs. Arizona St, Kansas St vs. Marquette
12) New Mexico St, Murray St., Buffalo, S. Dakota St
13) Bucknell, San Diego St, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
14) Wright St, SF Austin, Montana, Marshall
15) (Sun Belt champ), (Ivy League champ), Lipscomb, Iona
16) CS Fullerton, Radford, LIU-Brooklyn vs NC Central, Texas Southern vs UMBC
Last 4 in - MTSU, Arizona St, Kansas St, Marquette
First 4 out - NC State, Va Tech, Washington, Florida St
Next 4 out - Utah, Louisville, Notre Dame, Temple
NIT hopefuls - Oklahoma St, Nebraska, St. Mary's, Boise St
I'm still tweaking my seed lines and of course will have to drop a team if Davidson wins today (I will be at the A-10 Final this afternoon). I literally had 9 teams vying for the last 4 spots -- all with strong resumes and all with flaws.
While "the bar" moves year to year depending on the field, the committee universally likes to reward teams that go out and schedule well. So I used that in an attempt to define the bottom of the field.
MTSU - played the 9th rated non-conference schedule. 3-3 vs. top 50, 4-6 vs top 100. That's 10 games vs. the RPI top 100 without the benefit of a major conference schedule. That's impressive. I don't think the committee will let the one hiccup - loss to RPI #205 Southern Miss in CUSA quarters - ruin their season. We'll see.
ASU - struggled in Pac 12 play, but still had a respectable non-conference schedule (compared to other bubble teams) and went 5-3 vs. top 50, the only winning record in that category among the bubbles.
K-State - horrendous non-conference schedule (#326), but they get the reluctant nod with 5 wins vs. top 50 and the only remaining bubble team without a loss outside the top 100. While the committee has to be careful not to give too much love to conference records (hello Nebraska!), the Wildcats did win 10 in a highly-competitive Big 12 that landed (by my predictions) a whopping 8 teams in the field.
Marquette - 5 wins vs top 50 and stronger non-conference slate (#133) than most remaining teams. Like ASU, Wojo's boys played just 5 games outside the top 200.
Tough to leave out NC State, Va Tech, and Washington. The first two each with 4 wins vs. the RPI top 50. But both with terrible schedules (#263 & #326, respectively) and NC State stumbled twice outside the top 100.
I can't put Louisville in the field with an 0-11 mark vs. the top 50. Florida State has 6 wins vs. top 50, but again horrible scheduling (#312) could be their undoing.
I could be very wrong, but this could be a year when the unbalanced scheduling of the Power 5 conferences comes back to bite them. Rare to see a top 40 RPI major conference team (Louisville) left out of the field and multiple P5 teams (Nebraska, NC State, Utah, Va Tech, Washington) be snubbed despite double-digit conference wins.
Anyway, something to chat about and debate as we wait for 6pm ET.
