Been doing a lot of thinking about this and here's my (lengthy) case for retaining Groce:
1. He's got three years on his deal after this one. You don't need to extend him, and you're not chopping his recruiting legs off. Unlike recent Illini messes, inaction is a viable strategy in this case.
2. The most important short-to-medium term goal for the athletic department as a whole is to create and reflect stability and competence. There is no more turbulent, higher stakes time for an athletic department than a coaching search. We can all but guarantee we're going to go through that after next football season, forcing a new hire to do that twice in his first 10 months on the job seems insane. There are 12 games left and we have no AD. Can we really say that new person is making an informed decision?
3. Because of the unfortunate state of things and the furious insanity of the fanbase, the new AD's fate and viability is going to be completely tied to the immediate results of the two coaches he's going to have to hire. This guy and both of his hires could be dead men walking by December 2017, without even having had a chance. That is the worst case scenario. Always avoid the worst case scenario.
4. There is so much death and destruction around the program that I fear the 2017 class is a disaster waiting to happen regardless of the coach. DaMonte Williams committing somewhere other than Illinois would be a new low recruiting-wise, and the coach that happens to will never win back the fanbase. Let that fate, if it is to occur, befall Groce and not the next guy. If the next 13 months are going to suck, it's infinitely better not to hand that turd to someone we want to have the credibility to build it back up.
5. We will have a fully constructed, bells and whistles installed SFC to sell to a coach after next season as opposed to the very exciting construction site we have currently. And in any event, a coaching search is a long-term process, I feel. Especially for someone like Tiley or Whitman who would be a rookie at this. Another crap season isn't going to tank the stock of the Illinois job more than a year of prep and networking and information gathering would improve the quality of decision-making the new AD would be able to make.
6. We'll have a new Chancellor by next season and Barb Wilson will be back to thumb wrestling in LAS.
7. If Groce is retained, Lucas is going to come. This program desperately needs a top flight point guard, no matter who the coach is. If we fire Groce after this season, Lucas will be released from his commitment and probably sign elsewhere. If he is enrolled though, and Groce is fired next year or the year after, transferring suddenly becomes more difficult/painful for him (sitting out a year, new school, etc.)
8. And finally, on a basketball level, do I think we have any hope of massive improvement next year under Groce? Not really. But it's POSSIBLE. All the crap they've gone through this year isn't an excuse for how bad it's been, but take that stuff away with a more experienced group next year and maybe we see SOMETHING.
So anyway, those are my thoughts. There's no question Groce "deserves" to be fired, but what he deserves and what's in the long-term best interest of Illinois Athletics are divergent at this point, IMO. It's not the end of the world if he comes back. He's not Beckman, I don't hate the guy. I don't think the fan outcry for a brand new AD who just stepped in the door retaining a likable coach on the basis of "this season was FUBAR from the jump and I haven't seen what he can do yet" would be that severe. No worse than what it already is, certainly.
Interested to hear everyone's thoughts.
1. He's got three years on his deal after this one. You don't need to extend him, and you're not chopping his recruiting legs off. Unlike recent Illini messes, inaction is a viable strategy in this case.
2. The most important short-to-medium term goal for the athletic department as a whole is to create and reflect stability and competence. There is no more turbulent, higher stakes time for an athletic department than a coaching search. We can all but guarantee we're going to go through that after next football season, forcing a new hire to do that twice in his first 10 months on the job seems insane. There are 12 games left and we have no AD. Can we really say that new person is making an informed decision?
3. Because of the unfortunate state of things and the furious insanity of the fanbase, the new AD's fate and viability is going to be completely tied to the immediate results of the two coaches he's going to have to hire. This guy and both of his hires could be dead men walking by December 2017, without even having had a chance. That is the worst case scenario. Always avoid the worst case scenario.
4. There is so much death and destruction around the program that I fear the 2017 class is a disaster waiting to happen regardless of the coach. DaMonte Williams committing somewhere other than Illinois would be a new low recruiting-wise, and the coach that happens to will never win back the fanbase. Let that fate, if it is to occur, befall Groce and not the next guy. If the next 13 months are going to suck, it's infinitely better not to hand that turd to someone we want to have the credibility to build it back up.
5. We will have a fully constructed, bells and whistles installed SFC to sell to a coach after next season as opposed to the very exciting construction site we have currently. And in any event, a coaching search is a long-term process, I feel. Especially for someone like Tiley or Whitman who would be a rookie at this. Another crap season isn't going to tank the stock of the Illinois job more than a year of prep and networking and information gathering would improve the quality of decision-making the new AD would be able to make.
6. We'll have a new Chancellor by next season and Barb Wilson will be back to thumb wrestling in LAS.
7. If Groce is retained, Lucas is going to come. This program desperately needs a top flight point guard, no matter who the coach is. If we fire Groce after this season, Lucas will be released from his commitment and probably sign elsewhere. If he is enrolled though, and Groce is fired next year or the year after, transferring suddenly becomes more difficult/painful for him (sitting out a year, new school, etc.)
8. And finally, on a basketball level, do I think we have any hope of massive improvement next year under Groce? Not really. But it's POSSIBLE. All the crap they've gone through this year isn't an excuse for how bad it's been, but take that stuff away with a more experienced group next year and maybe we see SOMETHING.
So anyway, those are my thoughts. There's no question Groce "deserves" to be fired, but what he deserves and what's in the long-term best interest of Illinois Athletics are divergent at this point, IMO. It's not the end of the world if he comes back. He's not Beckman, I don't hate the guy. I don't think the fan outcry for a brand new AD who just stepped in the door retaining a likable coach on the basis of "this season was FUBAR from the jump and I haven't seen what he can do yet" would be that severe. No worse than what it already is, certainly.
Interested to hear everyone's thoughts.
